Less than 8.5 million packs, scarcity and flipping time
If nobody has told you, let this be a reminder that the bear market is the time for accumulation. I'm not saying we're in a bear market either because again, one year candle is still green but generally speaking, this smells like a nice time to accumulate.
When you look around you, all you see is reds, right? Well, you could say people are losing money or you could say it is an opportunity to get your hands on cheap assets.
Fortune favours the brave, so you have to take risks at some point. It is the foundation of this industry and pretty much why we're all here, to be honest.
Packs selling out fast
Speaking of rolling the dice, the Splinterlands Chaos Legion general sale has been selling quite fast. I predicted that the sale would last for two months from when the general sale starts, so sometime in March, I reckon all the packs would be sold out.
2 months is actually a very short time to sell out packs. In fact, I don't think there has ever been a pack sale that has sold as fast as this current sale.
The difference between now and the packs of the past is that unlike before, Splinterlands is no longer under the radar.
Everybody involved with the game can look at historical data of previous packs and see how well they're doing now. That right there is an incentive on its own but that's not all there is to it.
It doesn't take a genius to note how much Splinterlands will grow in the coming years. This growth is evident in the current size of the community today and the projected growth of the economy.
In just 2 days of the general sale, we've already gotten close to 7 million packs sold. In fact, at this moment, there are less than 8.5 million packs left to purchase in the sale.
That might sound like a huge number but when you consider how many packs were sold out on the first day of the sale amidst the horrible general market situation, I think that's a sign that the interest in Splinterlands is high.
In fact, if somewhere along the line, the market recovers from this slump and assets start to pump again, you can bet your house that the remaining packs could even be sold out in a week.
However, right now at least, I'm projecting based on the market situation and I think two months is a decent range.
If you're not part of Splinterlands, I think this might be a good time to get involved. Consider joining with my referral link if you're interested.
You don't have to buy packs
Someone pointed out something interesting on Twitter that I thought I'd share. I can't find the tweet right now but it said something along the line of "If you're not a big investor, no need to buy packs".
The person was basically referring to people who have short term needs in Splinterlands. It actually makes sense, particularly if your plan is to improve your deck for ranked battles.
If you're not buying a large number of packs, there's actually no need to buy packs. In fact, you'd probably be in the red zone if you buy a few packs and open them.
I looked at the current value of the packs I opened recently and most of them were actually less than $4 in value. However, some of them were upwards of $20, so I was able to at least break even overall.
If I wasn't opening a decent number of packs, I'll not have made any progress in my deck. In fact, if I go by the last three packs I opened alone, I'm deep in the reds.
In fact, it was until the 6th pack I opened that I got a gold foil epic card that added $26 to my deck value. Opening one pack costs $4.43 if you include potions and price of purchasing the pack. Multiply that by 6 and we get 26.58.
So from opening my last 6 packs, the total value of NFT found was probably $5-7 more than the total amount I invested in the packsand potions in the first place. This is for a small sample size, by the way, it will be much different for a larger sample size and that's the point I'm trying to make.
Do you have to buy packs? If you're buying packs, do you really have to open them? I feel like if you're buying packs and opening them now, then you should be buying at least somewhere around 15-20 packs and use potions to open them to maximise your luck.
If you can't buy that many packs, then don't buy packs to open. just buy and hold them till the time comes to flip them.
These packs are going to have really dope resale value in the future. Many of these monsters are really awesome.
In fact, I dare say that while the Chaos Legion summoners cost slightly more mana, they're much better than the Untamed, Alpha, Dice and Beta summoners abilities.
Scarcity is going to be an issue for the Chaos Legion pack in the near future, so even if you have a few and don't want to risk it, you can still just hodl it until the sale end. That's when new players start scrambling to get their hands on packs.
I don't think it will take too long before flipping time will come along but historical data also shows that the longer you wait the better. In any case, stay frosty, do your own research and make the best out of your situation.
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