The Upcoming St. Valentine's Day Massacre of Rewards Cards

over 1 year ago

Discontinuation Day is Coming... Rewards will all be Soulbound.

None of this article is financial/investment/legal advice, it contains a strategic valuation analysis of speculative assets that can be subject to market fluctuations. You are suggested to seek out a Registered Investment Advisor (RIA) for all investments and the author is not an RIA. Splinterlands' Terms of Service identifies Splinterlands/Steem Monsters as not being an Investment Company. As defined by the U.S. Code of Federal Regulations, Steem Monsters (the parent company of Splinterlands) and the Decentralized Autonomous Organization (DAO) that was published by Steem Monsters can be argued to rise to the definition of being classified as Financial Institutions in the United States. This is a duty to warn and inform given that the actions to be described regard the valuation of assets and speculation of events to take place.

Splinterlands' Play to Earn will be DEAD and Play and Earn will also meet a demise starting April 1. Steem Monsters' version of Splinterlands is poised to stop issuing immediately tradeable assets through Ranked Rewards starting with the changes to Rewards cards relatively soon and the expectation is that it could be in mid-February as there will be a QA testing period post-release of the new Soulbound Rewards cards. The policies around the upcoming Soulbound Rewards cards are still to be determined, which is why the most logical timing appears to be roughly February 14, 2023. On April 1, 2023, Chaos Legion packs will no longer be issued in Rewards chests and the replacement has yet to be determined. The market pricing is starting to reflect that changes are afoot and it will force many to change how they approach the game ONCE AGAIN.

There's a Desire to Discontinue Rather Than Honor Print Runs

In a recent Town Hall, Splinterlands co-founders Dr. Jesse "Aggroed" Reich and Matthew "YabapMatt" Rosen discussed the future of Rewards cards issuances. There is an existing possibility of 50/50 odds of receiving a tradeable Rewards card as opposed to a Soulbound Rewards card, but Aggroed expressed his desire to just burn the rest of the print run citing that everyone had their chance at these cards and that it is time to move on fully to the new Soulbound Rewards cards.

This is a matter that could still go to vote through the SPS DAO, but since it is not an SPS related matter, this is actually a decision that is at the discretion of the Splinterlands team. Aggroed will likely get his desired result and the burn will happen just in time for certain Rewards cards to go out-of-print (Venari Heatsmith, Pelacor Bandit, Pelacor Mercenary, Pelacor Deceiver, Pelacor Conjurer, Gargoya Lion).

Overprinting of Regular Foil Cards Put Gold Foil Cards at a Premium

During the overprinting era of sports cards (1990s), a good number of cards maintained or grew in value. These were limited edition card subsets and select Rookie cards from higher priced brands (Bowman, Bowman Chrome, SkyBox Premium, Fleer Ultra, etc.) that were kept in pristine condition (PSA 8 or better). The same sort of logic applies to this particular generation of Splinterlands cards (Chaos Legion, Rewards, Riftwatchers). There is a flight to quality and scarcity. Regular Foil cards are not expected to appreciate like the way the Gold Foil cards will.

In this generation of Splinterlands cards (with the exception of Promo cards), Regular Foil cards offer in-game utility, but no scarcity, secondary market value nor bonuses for utilization. Gold Foil cards confer all of the benefits of ownership.

Consider the case of the Pelacor Bandit.

Over 7.8 million Pelacor Bandit cards were printed and due to card combining, 1.976 million Regular Foil Pelacor Bandit cards exist and 64,010 Gold Foil Pelacor Bandit cards exist. This card will soon run out-of-print and number of Gold Foil Pelacor Bandit cards will decrease a bit more due to card combining, which will improve the scarcity of this card and the demand for it will rise due to utility in the original Splinterlands game and the forked derivations.

Comparing the Gold Foil Pelacor Bandit to a similar Regular Foil out-of-print Rewards card may give an idea of where the floor is for Gold Foil Pelacor Bandit.

Enter the Screeching Vulture

An out-of-print Common Rewards card, Screeching Vulture, is similar in many ways to the Pelacor Bandit in terms of game play. However, Screeching Vulture had only 400,000 cards printed, which will be 95% lower than Pelacor Bandit by the end of the print run. The Regular Foil Screeching Vulture is dwarfed in cards printed by Regular Foil Pelacor Bandit, in fact, it is 96.1% lower. However, when comparing the Gold Foil Pelacor Bandit to the Regular Foil Screeching Vulture, there is an apt comparison.

With 77,993 Regular Foil Screeching Vultures in circulation and presently 64,010 Gold Foil Pelacor Bandit cards in circulation, there are 21.8% more Regular Foil Screeching Vulture cards. Applying a comparable price based on only the low card price of Screeching Vulture and the print rate, there is a value of $.281 per Gold Foil Pelacor Bandit. However, the value of the Gold Foil Pelacor Bandit would likely be higher due to the ubiquity in use and the in-game Gold Foil bonus. $.281 at a single BCX is seemingly a floor price based on this comparable.

Consider the Dhampir Infiltrator

The Dhampir Infiltrator will experience as a massive cut in cards printed due to the discontinuation of immediately tradeable Rewards cards. The discontinuation means there will be less Dhampir Infiltrator cards than its peers with a longer print run (Venari Wavesmith, Venari Crystalsmith, et al). However, the Dhampir Infiltrator, even in the case of a discontinuation will still have a larger print run (presently 785,468) than previous Rare Rewards cards that are out-of-print. Those Rare Rewards cards only had print runs of 100,000 cards.

However, the limited print run means that only 4,859 Gold Foil Dhampir Infiltrator cards are in circulation. From a print perspective, this actually makes the Gold Foil Dhampir Infiltrator comparable to Gold Foil Common Rewards cards of the past. It is actually comparable to one of the most powerful Common Rewards cards, Sand Worm. Similar speed, sneak ability, double strike (brings it closer in damage), and flexibility due to being a Dragon card is what makes it a fair comparable to the Neutral Sand Worm.

The number of cards circulating will ultimately be very similar when it comes to Gold Foil cards.

$7.20 could be a price that the Gold Foil Dhampir Infiltrator reaches. Many may make the comparison to the Silvershield Assassin due to both cards being Double Strike Sneak Rewards cards, but the circulations are not comparable in both the Gold Foil and Regular Foil varieties to make a fair comparison.

870 cards circulating is just too few compared to the likely 5,000 Gold Foil Dhampir Infiltrator cards.

A Rough Summarization of Print Rate and Possible Value Comparables

Regular Foil Common Rewards Cards: No comparable, lowest value cards.
Gold Foil Common Rewards Cards: Out-of-Print Regular Foil Common Rewards Cards
Gold Foil Common Rewards Cards (discontinued): Out-of-Print Regular Foil Rare Rewards Cards
Regular Foil Rare Rewards Cards: No comparable, lowest value cards.
Gold Foil Rare Rewards Cards: Out-of-Print Regular Foil Rare Rewards Cards
Gold Foil Rare Rewards Cards (discontinued): Out-of-Print Gold Foil Common Rewards Cards
Regular Foil Epic Rewards Cards: Out-of-Print Regular Foil Common Rewards Cards
Gold Foil Epic Rewards Cards: Out-of-Print Regular Foil Epic Rewards Cards
Gold Foil Epic Rewards Cards (discontinued): Out-of-Print Gold Foil Rare Rewards Cards
Regular Foil Legendary Rewards Cards: Out-of-Print Regular Foil Rare Rewards Cards
Regular Foil Legendary Rewards Cards (discontinued): Out-of-Print Regular Foil Epic Rewards Cards
Gold Foil Legendary Rewards Cards: Out-of-Print Regular Foil Legendary Rewards Cards
Gold Foil Legendary Rewards Cards (discontinued): Out-of-Print Gold Foil Epic Rewards Cards