DEC Looks Ready to Bounce-Card Market Could Follow

I've written a few critical posts about Splinterlands recently but as weary as I am right now, I am still fully invested. I have not put a single card up for sale. I haven't unstaked or sold any SPS or done anything to change how much SPS I'm getting.

I have made a few changes to my future plans related to growing my ownership of assets in the game. Part of that is me not being as confident as I once was and part of it is that I used to make $150-200 per day in the rental markets which allowed me to reinvest while today I'm making $25.

I am angry and I am worried about the handling of the game, my income, and my investment but I still have faith in the teams ability to pull this off if they realize their mistakes and correct them. Or potentially they already have plans to do something that will fix all this and I'm just not invited to the meetings.

If anyone from the team reads this trash I write, I'm available for consulting :)

Besides the team, one of the reasons I have faith is DEC. I don't love the way DEC is structured and as I pointed out the other day, bots in Hive-Engine can completely manipulate the price of DEC down and hurt the whole game and its something they do often.

However, within a few minutes of publishing my post the other day calling this manipulation out, it stopped. Interestingly enough, the same thing happened in September when I called it out in a post. I'm fairly certain this time it was just a coincidence. When it happened though, I expected we were going to start to have a turnaround in DEC price but then crypto and the US stock market tanked again.

Now that things are stabilizing though, I'm thinking we will probably start to see a recovery in DEC. The fact is that as of right now it's too low. With the amount of players and commerce still going on in Splinterlands, DEC shouldn't be dropping below .005 USD. The fact that it did and the manipulation has stopped makes me expect a snapback. This could power the whole game higher, at least briefly.

As you can see, there's only 1.3 million dec between here and .008. I'm not sure it will run that high but there's very little to stop it from happening if anything exciting happened. There's also a possibility that the bots pushing price down all this time decide to reverse course and send it back up to sell all the cheap DEC they accumulated while pushing down price.

I am expecting something around .0065-.008 but that could cause people to get excited again and could coincide with land news. If price is going up and people start telling themselves it's because land, they could start buying and pushing it up even higher and suddenly we'll see another mini-boom in Splinterlands.

People tend to put a narrative around price fluctuations and those narratives can turn self-fulfilling.

Of course there can't be a real boom until the war against bronze stops. Land is really the only thing with boom potential coming immediately but land isn't going to bring in a bunch of new people who have long since been priced out of owning land. At least not the types that the Splinterlands team feels are worthy of a positive and profitable experience.

Another reason I have faith in the game is because although prices are getting crushed on so many cards and I've seen a $68k paper loss in value on my cards in recent weeks, as I look through some of these Alpha cards I'm seeing some patterns. There are a few sellers who have always been sellers and are now WAYY undercutting the market but are running out of ammo (unless they have feeder accounts with more).

Another thing I've noticed is that for weeks there have been phantom listings on tons of cards which are artificially pushing prices down as new sellers don't pay attention and just list at the bottom price. When these listings finally get fixed, the number of cards listed will drop pretty dramatically and suddenly and this could spark buying if anyone is paying attention.

I don't mean in Chaos Legion cards of course. Those are just always going to be broken. But I actually have my eye on several alpha cards right now that are set up as perfect buys to instantly double and triple paper values the second they are bought and and these issues are fixed.

My only hesitation is that their price in DEC is high right now. I think DEC could rise 60% and that means anything I buy in DEC thinking I'm getting a deal would be stripped of that value when DEC goes back up. This means in order to buy I'd need to put more money into the game to buy credits and I'm just not sure I'm willing to do that right now.

But between DEC potentially bouncing and the potential for some of these cards to suddenly springboard in price if just a few buyers come in and they fix these phantom listings, we could certainly see a surge coming. Whether you want to sell into it or jump on board is a choice in itself though.

So many choices in life...

Posted Using LeoFinance ^Beta