How much will Splinterlands Vouchers cost
Splinterlands released details yesterday on how the long awaited chaos legion pack presale will work.
in order to have an orderly pre-sale Splinterlands will be issuing 1 million vouchers over 30 days, and these tokens can be used to buy Chaos Legion packs.
There are only 1 million packs at $4USD each that will be available in the presale, so there needs to be a rationing system like vouchers to ensure an even distribution of the packs, and to avoid what happened in their land sale where you needed to be online within 10mins of the land being launched to get some. This posed challenges for some in different time-zones.
So vouchers will be issued to those that stake SPS, the good thing is that they will be tradeable assets, so they will probably be traded on Hive-engine.
What are the numbers
So there will be 1 million vouchers issued over 30 days (33,333.333 per day) to those that stake SPS, and distributed in proportion to their stake.
Currently there are 94m SPS staked. So that means to get one pack you will need to stake 94 SPS, so for simplicity I am going to assume you need 100 SPS staked to get 1 voucher over the 30 days. The max supply is going to be around 250m SPS, so its possible the stake proportion increases.
why will vouchers have value?
the Chaos legion packs will be $4USD, and cost 1 voucher. So the question is, why would vouchers have any value? because you can simply after the presale at some point buy a pack for $4USD without a voucher. The details of when this will happen are not yet clear.
However there are incentives to buy the presale, they include
- 10% discount if purchased by SPS
- Participation in all the airdrops, with every 1m packs sold their will be an airdrop for people that previously purchased packs.
- The promo cards
The one I think will be the key incentive is the promo cards, for every 50 packs purchased you are guaranteed a promo card, and for every 1000 packs purchased you are guaranteed a gold foil promo card. These are limited print cards, with a maximum of 1000 gold foil promos, and a max of 20,000 regular promos.
There will be so much competition for those gold foil promos, that that will increase the price of vouchers.
One way to estimate the value
Whilst its unclear how valuable it will be for people to buy a voucher, there are some minimums.
The price of the voucher must rationally be above $0.40 USD, because by buying in the presale you have access to the 10% discount, so a 10% discount is $0.40 USD.
I am guessing though, that the FOMO on the promo cards will push the price up higher, and I think it might be based on the SPS price and the yield.
method 1 - SPS drop in price method
One way to think about this, is that the price of SPS will drop after the pre-sale back to pre-announcement levels. Therefore the price of SPS was $0.24 pre-sale, and that now increased to $0.35. So there has been a 9c gain, and if you need 100 SPS per voucher that means vouchers could cost $9!
method 2 - Reasonable yield method
Lets say SPS holders want a reasonable yield, because SPS is a volatile asset, they would want say 100% yield in addition to the SPS staking yield. This is a complete stab in the dark, and who knows what a reasonable yield is (I get 0.01% in my bank account, is that reasonable?).
If we receive a 100% yield, on $35. that means the price of the voucher would be $35 * 100% / 12 (for the 30 day airdrop period)
This means the price would be $2.91.
so I have shown a few methods of calculating the price of vouchers, but really its anyone's guess, I am going to put it out there, I think it will be about $5USD. we'll see what happens, perhaps this post will influence the list price of the first few trades, perhaps not.
The one thing I think is certain, is that the price of vouchers will sky rocket near the end of the presale when people are just that few vouchers short of their promo card. This will likely happen as the staked SPS will keep rising and people's calculation of vouchers earned will be off.
this is all so exciting, and I like sitting back and watching the human behaviours and reflecting on that for the next release....