Chaos Legion First Day Sales & Result of Prediction

I wrote a post a couple of hours before the Chaos Legion general sale began this past week. In that post I made some predictions and had a discussion about how the Chaos Legion sale would unfold over the first day of sales.

Here was my prediction:

For all these reasons, I'm predicting a first day sale total of less than 5 million packs, bringing the total number of packs sold to nearly 7 million when including the two pre-sales.

Now, I took a screenshot right at the start of the general sale and it showed the following numbers:

Now it turns out that this 4,046,736 packs at the start of the general sale likely included the 1.5-1.75 million packs that Aggroed "pre-sold" as part of his bulk sale program. Because of this, I think it's only fair that I compare my total cumulative pack sales prediction with the ending value of total packs sold at the end of the first 24 hours of the general sale.

At the end of the first day, there were 6,388,167 packs sold.

It turns out that my very conservative prediction of less than 7 million total packs sold by the end of the first day of the general sale was pretty damn close to accurate.

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It turns out that the @splinterlands team actually published their sales totals for the first 24 hours of release and the number they reported is:

In the first 24 hours of the Chaos Legion general sale there were a total of 2,109,682 packs sold plus 231,746 bonus packs awarded in 27,249 separate purchase transactions.

Obviously that number excludes the bulk sale packs that were sold for the first day. If we add those back, we get a total first day sales of 3.8 to 4.1 million packs.

I am hopeful that the dev team will continue to promote Splinterlands to bring new players into the game. There are now 8.25 million packs left for sale from the Chaos Legion edition and I expect that without another large influx of new players, these packs will linger on the sale page for the next 6-9 months.

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Crypto Collapse

Since the first day of the Chaos Legion general sale, the crypto market has continued to falter across the board. Bitcoin is down below $35,000 and HIVE has fallen to $0.72. The drop in HIVE, in particular, has been incredible to watch from the high of $3.42 at the end of November. This has been quite a painful drop as we have all seen the value of our HIVE Power and other HIVE-related holdings plummet.

During this decline, we have no longer been seeing the regular pumps occurring at the start of the day in Korea. Perhaps the Koreans have lost their interest in HIVE? As it stands now we have fallen right back to where we were before the big run-up at the end of 2021. Oh well, that's crypto.