Final Countdown to Chaos Legion and First Day Sale Prediction

With just two hours left until the Chaos Legion general sale, I decided to take a look at some of the data and make a prediction on first day sales.

First, this sale requires the use of credits so lets see how many credits have been purchased and are sitting in people's accounts right now:

When I checked this about 12 hours ago there were a million less credits outstanding so it seems players are steadily making their credit purchases ahead of the start of the sale. This is smart so that they don't need to worry about any payment processing or crypto transfer/conversion issues during the sale itself when it is expected there may be sporadic server outages.

As of now, there are almost 6.5 billion credits outstanding, which is $6.5 million. We should subtract the @steemmonsters balance since that is a dev account, so that's 5.5 million dollars worth of credits. Considering that packs cost $4 each, that's enough credits for purchasing 1.375 million packs, assuming all credits will be spent.

Second, there was a special bulk sale program that the devs organized that "pre-sold" 1.5 million packs according to aggroed. It was said that these pre-sales would have their payment processed manually and then issued credits prior to the sale for them to use on the opening day of the pre-sale. Since there are not enough credits currently outstanding to purchase 1.5 million packs, I'm inclined to believe the credits have either not been issued yet, or the 1.5 million packs were an exaggeration for the bulk sale. Alternatively, they may have changed the way these packs are being issued and keeping it completely outside of the credit system.

Crypto has been experiencing a general softness and I think that will also have an impact on Chaos Legion sales on opening day. For months now, there have been countless predictions of a sell-out of all the Chaos Legion packs in the first 24 hours, but I've resisted those calls from the beginning as extremely optimistic. After the major let down with the Doctor Blight card values in the pre-sale, I think people are going to be even more apprehensive going into the general sale.

For all these reasons, I'm predicting a first day sale total of less than 5 million packs, bringing the total number of packs sold to nearly 7 million when including the two pre-sales.

I expect this prediction will be met with plenty of vitriol, but I just don't see the huge influx of cash being pumped into the game on day one. In a way, I think this is the best outcome as it will prevent a flooding of the card economy in such a short period of time, further collapsing card prices. If Chaos Legion packs are opened over a longer period of time, it will help maintain a bit more stability in the card market.

Now let's just sit back and watch the pack sale counter (hopefully the devs turn it back on for the general sale).