Introduction

Hard to believe but the 30 days set for the experiment are over. If you told me when i started this experiment that Ill stick to it to the very end I wouldn't believe you. Im happy that I did and and I'm full of faith that this post will help you form a more solid opinion about the quest potions.

Today we finally will draw the final conclusion regarding the question:

"Do quest potion worth the investment?"

But before we answer this question I would like to mention the rules by which the experiment was conducted, as well as share with you the data that was obtained.

Experiment Rules & Methods

• The first chests received each day did not got into the calculation, as we should get them regardless of the potions.
• All calculations were made in regard to DEC, even though the purchase of the quest potions was done with credits.
• Cards value calculated according to the cheapest price at the market at the moment. Legendary & alchemy potions calculated as equal to 40 dec.

Experiment Data

• Length of the experiment: 30 days/30 daily quest rewards.
• Overall cost of the experiment: 22500.
• Overall rewards in the experiment: 16844.
• Overall profit\loss: -5656.

Daily Graph

The graph below represents the daily profit received from what chests. The blue axis represents the daily profit, The orange axis represents the daily cost.

The above graph raises a number of important points:

• The profit exceeded the cost only four times throughout the trial period.
• Only once throughout the experiment was a valuable award drawn. This one time was enough to change the balance for the better, for most of the experiment.
• As the experiment continued the frequency of the valuable prizes decreased. One reason for this is that the amount of cards in the prize pool decreased throughout the experiment.
  

Discussion & Conclusions

There are a lot of points I want to address, and Ill try my best to do it in a clear and simple way.

1. My Profits

All of the above data may be misleading and imply that the purchase of the potions was a mistake - it was not.

The reason I'm in profit after all is that I bought the potions using credits. Now I intend to present to you how much profit I have made (All the calculation are according to today price of dec and hive).

• 1 Dec = 0.01305 HIVE +- (According to hive-engine).
• I made overall 16844 dec Throughout the experiment.
• 16844 * 0.01305 = 219.5 HIVE
• The overall cost of the potions Throughout the experiment = 45.5 HIVE
• 219.5 - 45.5= 174 HIVE profit!

The option to buy quest potion with credits was recently removed from the game. And its tragic that we can no longer buy potions in this way. 174 HIVE is sweet gain.

2. The Follow Up Question

Since it is no longer possible to pay with credits. And in light of the fact that the developers plan to lower the price of the potions. The question we all ask ourselves is:

"At what price of DEC is it no longer worth investing in potions?"

To answer this question I divided all the gains I made throughout the experiment by 30. In order to find the average daily earnings (and the same price worth investing in a potion).

The price according to this experiment is 561.5

Unfortunately this calculation suffers from over-simplicity. Since the 30 days of the experiment do not correctly represent the profit potential of the potions. For, investing in potions raises the possibility of a larger profit than those obtained in the experiment (some players received in the 50K DEC range). Also there is always the possibility that all the prizes you will receive will be complete rubbish (Imagine I would not get the card worth 5000 DEC, the whole conclusion of the experiment was different ...).

So I do not know whether 561 DEC is a price worth investing in a potion...

Currently I do not intend to buy potions if their cost exceeds 400 DEC. But thats me...

3. Other Points To Consider

There are a number of disadvantages to investing in potions over other investment channels:

1. We have no control over the rewards we receive and they can be of no use to us sometimes.
2. We accept the prizes in the days following the purchase and not in the purchaseing time.
3. It is very frustrating to open boxes and be disappointed every day anew (Its broke my heart).
4. You can't move and trade potions and you cant decide not to use potions (for example in recent days there is nothing good in chests anyway and it feels silly to waste potions on chests).
5. The potions are not counted in SPS AIRDROPS (that is one of the reasons I did not buy 100 potions a week ago when it was still possible).

Final Words

I'm sure there are many more points worth addressing, but this post is already long anyway (and who liked that???).
The points I addressed in the post are the main points that emerged from the experiment. But I'm sure a lot more information can be deduced so if anyone is interested in getting the excel file I was working on. Feel free to send me a message.

If there is points that I did not addres feel free to comment and Ill try to edit it in.

As I mentioned before, 30 days ago I did not believe that I would write blogs in English and that I would get so much support from the community. I thank you all very much for that! One of the reasons this experiment went on despite the challenges and disappointments (as well as the strain I have been under in my private life in recent weeks), is thanks to your support!