Strategy to maximize Vouchers while still buying CL packs with SPS
With the announcement of the rollout of Chaos Legion packs and presale, I wanted to lay out my strategy to maximize 1) the number of vouchers, 2) the expected number of promo cards, and 3) the number of packs I can buy.
Some relevant info:
- Vouchers/day = (#SPS personally staked) * 33,333.33 / (Total SPS staked)
- Total SPS staked on October 18 ~ 220M (this is an estimate and equal to the current total pool of SPS)
- 1 voucher + $4 = 1 CL pack
- 50 pre-sale packs guarantees a promo legendary death summoner (to be revealed. 2% otherwise, but I'm only going to count the guaranteed one)
- Vouchers distributed Oct 24 - Nov 18, but presale ends Nov 25 (gives a week to spend vouchers after pre-sale distribution ends - this is a key point)
- There will be a 10% discount if paying with SPS
To maximize value, buying pre-sale packs in multiples of 50 is going to be the sweet spot for the guaranteed promos. So we want to stake SPS such that our expected vouchers/day = 50/30 = 1.67.
Assuming 220M SPS staked total, (#SPS Personally staked for 1.53 packs/day) = 220M * 1.67 / 33333.33 ~ 11k .
We need to have 11,000 SPS staked for the entire month to get an expected 50 packs.
Now, how to buy them, given that we both want our SPS to be staked for maximum vouchers, buy also to spend on packs at the end? Because the pre-sale will go on for 1 week following the end of voucher air-drops, this is actually pretty easy. By staking 100% of SPS for the first 22 days, if you 4 * ($180 worth of SPS - 50 $4 packs @ 10% discount), 25% of it will become unstaked during the week between voucher airdrop end and pre-sale end. You then buy the number of packs with the newly-unstaked SPS, then re-stake the other 3 25% chunks in the following weeks. Or sell them. Or whatever.
So the punchline is, assuming 220M staked SPS (which might be high or low, but I think it's a pretty conservative estimate), you need 11k staked for the entire month to get 50 vouchers and a guaranteed promo death legendary summoner.
For $3,600 invested in SPS, and $180 of it spent, you get, at minimum: 50 packs, and 1 promo.
Using numbers from Untamed, there is a 1800% markup of packs from original sale price ($36/$2). Given there are fewer relative packs for CL, but more total packs, I'm going to assume those cancel out and will give the same markup eventually for CL. So our $180 theoretically sells for $3,600. The legendary, if it follow the trends from Untamed, will be expensive, and there will only be ~40,000 of them ever (assuming everyone buys in 50-pack chunks, so likely less than that). The equivalent card from Untamed is the most expensive fire legendary at $550, so let's assume a similar price.
So in sum, we gross $4,150. If you are able to cash out the SPS at ~50% after the pre-sale period, then you spend $180 + $1,710 = $1,890. This gives an ROI of 4150/1890 = 220%. I'd say not bad.
Use vouchers or sell them?
Based on the above expected value of $4,150 / 50 packs, we can see when it makes sense to just sell a voucher rather than buy packs with it. If the price for one voucher is > $83, then sell that voucher, take the money, and run!