Splinterlands Sunday!: Opening Beta Booster Packs with Potions Experiment

My journey towards continuing to build a competitive collection for Splinterlands battles continue as I finally dived in and purchased a bulk of Beta Booster packs before they sell out. I regret not buying more of the Alpha Booster packs when I had the chance as I really did not understand the way the economy of these digital assets would turn out as the game was still just a concept when they were being sold. However, with less than 20% of the supply remaining and prices continuing to go up as demand continues to rise due to an increased player base, it was really an easy decision to do.

My plan is hold a good amount of these Beta Booster packs as I have seen how Alpha Booster packs went from their original $2 price to now demanding around $8 on average as the amount available continue to dwindle lower. The development team confirmed two interesting facts recently which made me make the purchase; first, there will never be any more Alpha or Beta cards released in the future even if they are burned and combined to scarce amount. While they mentioned they may consider to do a “reprint” of them, they say that it would be a completely different collection and years away. They also mentioned that the underlying cards will also be limited to Alpha and Beta collections that have been released including the neutral cards only released for Beta. That means that the only way to to get an Enchanted Pixie or any of the Summoners currently available will be in these packs as the next collection to be released will be completely new.

I also decided to take the Dark Energy Crystals (DEC) I have been accumulating to buy Potions once again. I had originally tried to buy both the Legendary and Alchemy potions to open 100 Orbs when they first released and was honestly not impressed with the results which is why I have been just holding them for now. However, after seeing video and reading messages from fellow members of the community demonstrating how they have improved the chances to get both Gold Foil and Legendary cards, I thought I would give it another chance and actually experiment for others thinking of doing the same. The website also allows to open packs in bulk now which made the experience much easier.

I have been able to find with multiple confirmations that the following statistics are the base probabilities when revealing cards: Common (75.2%), Rare (20%), Epic (4%), and Legendary (0.8%). Also, for Gold Foils the probabilities are as follows: Common (1.5%), Rare (0.4%), Epic (0.08%), and Legendary (0.016%). However, you can seen how the reality of randomness really deviates from these with and without potions. They also seem to balance out for the better or worst. When I compare my 100 packs without Potions, my Legendary experience was worst off just like my Commons (which is good) but it also provided with more Rare and Epic cards which worked out for me as I still needed a number of Beta Neutrals and Summoners that fell into those categories.

The experience with Potions was great for me as I got an incredible total of 13 Legendary cards including a couple of Summoners which I really needed to get closer to maximizing those cards. This made up for the fact that Epics were right on track with the expectation but more importantly allowed me to realize that it was well worth the Potion. Particularly when comparing to the only 2 I got when opening 100 packs without the Potions. However, the experience with the Alchemy potions which improves the probability of Gold Foils was not as exciting. While you can see that the results are double what they are without the potion, it was unfortunate that I got zero Gold Foil Epics or Legendaries.

My assessment is that the Potion do work as intended but randomness could alter results both ways so luck is still somewhat involved. I was so excited with the Legendary card results that I almost opened 100 more while considering to buy another Potion for Legendaries only. However, I held back as I still want to save some for later down the road. While I am sure I will open more as I forgot how exciting it was to see the openings, I am currently holding off to see what the next set of cards will be for the community. I am also considering to see how I can use some packs to foster engagement among the community as I see many players still struggling as the game has gotten very competitive as more players continue to come into the ecosystem. No impact from upcoming Hard Fork being seen here!

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