[ANALYSIS] State of Rental Market - Feb19

in PeakMonsters8 months ago (edited)

For a long time the rental market gradually increased even last time i ran the report it increased in some areas while staying stagnant in others.

However this time I some less exciting news... it's down.

HOW TO FIX THIS?

And our question is... what can we do to help this? Or is it not something we can control and more is a statement on the game not on the rental market system itself?

THE DATA

STATFeb 19Jan 24Dec 13Dec 2Jan 24 to Feb 19 change
Total Contracts open7534844468386281-10.78%
Daily value of contracts110.019162.22158.98158.18-32.18%
unique delegatees (renters)455473416397-3.81%
uniwue delegators (owners)2952952552380.00%
steem+sbd in escrow7231126311197510235-42.75%
How much top owner makes daily9.89517.6519.5724.6-43.94%
How much top renter spends daily4.5794.264.354.47.49%
Sub .01 Rentals42483986271125236.57%
.001 Rentals16421423103099015.39%
.1 and above Rentals136257288316-47.08%
Escrow above 1 steem1710280926822312-39.12%

RENTER INTERFACE

We have a plan to rethink and redo the interface for renters... however do you think there are still lots of users interested in renting?

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I powered up a lot of my cards which meant that the ones I had on the market got taken down to help with the power ups.

Also, with the rewards system changing, I have been getting less cards, which means less cards to rent out.

As far as renting something myself. I never have and I am wondering why not now...

I think it's because of the reward system changes. EV of rewards dropped so players started optimizing rentals more, be more selective or just gave up playing an account with rented cards. I know at least 2 champion accounts that stopped renting because it started to generate a loss.

In the beginning, for me the rule of thumb for most of the cards was "rental fee below 4-5% ROI is ok", right now it's more like "rental fee below 2-3% ROI is ok".

During the last month, every time my contract ends, instead of extending the same one, I can choose another one, which is usually 20-40% cheaper.

PS Does anyone need cheap Harpy? Here you go. Basically you can have maxed card for 180 days in the price of 1BCX:

Appreciate your feedback on this.
I think either @nealmcspadden or @tcpolymath mentioned that showing what renters are capable of getting needs to be known and maybe publicized.

Jacek's comment also shows something I've been thinking about for a while:

In the beginning, for me the rule of thumb for most of the cards was "rental fee below 4-5% ROI is ok", right now it's more like "rental fee below 2-3% ROI is ok".

This is kind of nonsensical. The owner's ROI has nothing whatsoever to do with the renter's profitability, and I continually see people treating it as if it does, making rental judgments on the listed ROI rather than anything meaningful. It would be nice to have a number here that actually meant something to the potential renter.

Hard to do since each player's deck EV is going to be different. Jacek knows he's going to finish in one of the top places and will get bonus packs on top of everything else.

I'd love to see some kind of strength-of-deck metric. Jacek occasionally posts the card usage stats by league, which I think could be shaped into a strength score.

If it's a max level card, then show a score that it was used in x% of battles and won y% of those in champion matches

Same if it's a silver league, gold league, etc.

I dont think we can do anything, I've enjoyed the run and yes it's down but I'll continue to rent. The most important thing is users, so we get those I can see the market for rentals going back up. The rewards are cause of concern but it is what it is. I appreciate all my renters and hope they make a profit. Also I am excited for a renters page, would be nice. Thanks for all the great work to the team....

Posted using Partiko Android

I would be interested in renting if I could rent out whole teams at a time easily, or put up rent many cards more quickly.

And I also think that the renting is a bit hidden on the site, maybe make a whole new TAB next to "collection" and "market" that is just for "renting"

I only ever rented 1 card, but I never really liked the interface. As @tsnaks pointed out I feel the same, it just felt hidden to me and just wasn't something I was interested in dealing with.

Also, not really interested in 2-3% returns right now. I'd rather sell the cards and earn 10 - 12% with delegating SP.

2-3% returns as a renter or as an owner?

just so people know 2-3% returns that we show on rentals is a monthly ROI so that's more like 24-36% yearly ROI ... or return on asset since we assess current value and not value when owner bought the card.

That's good to know!

You hold and rent out cards for the same two reasons a landlord holds and rents out properties.
Growth and Yield
As long as you're getting at least one, you're winning.
If the card values were climbing and rental returns were terrible that'd be okay.
If rental returns were generous, and card value was stagnant that'd be okay too.
Either would be a clear signal to increase investment, but we seem to be enjoying neither, currently.
Of course a property landlord looks at a 7 year period. I can't imagine looking back on the first decade of Splinterlands and finding a 7 year period where residential property was a better investment :)
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Every Wednesday I track (left to right) my daily rental income; then value of the median card (per bcx); then calculate how many of that card I could buy (at that price), for that day's income.
I figure its more a measure of how well I'm performing personally, taking the broader market volatility out of the equation.
I'm no @nealmcspadden, but I'm enjoying it more than I thought I would.

heh, it gets old after a while :)