Splinterlands Mystery Potions ROI Analysis: 200% - 250% Gains Are The Norm

in LeoFinance3 months ago

I'v been using Mystery Potions regularly since they were giving away Land plots. It's easy to win 1 of 5 Plots than to be that 1 person who win 1 ultra rare Legendary promo Card. I'm satisfied with results I've had. But I haven't done any real ROI analysis. You'll see a report on ROI as I make it. Stats will be taken from @splinterstats

Plot.png

Let's Take Last 7 Days

It's been fun to get open the Mystery Reward to get something nice as the win above. I'll be exploring the most interesting data and leave out few boring ones. Let's get to the numbers & math:

Number of Mystery Potions Used

28-1-2021 = 75
27-1-2021 = 76
26-1-2021 = 67
25-1-2021 = 61
24-1-2021 = 62
23-1-2021 = 63
22-1-2021 = 63

  • Average Mystery potions at use per day is 66.71

Mystery Potions Won

You can win another Mystery Potion as a prize. This is the perfect break even reward. So I thought I'd calculate this.

28-1-2021 = 8
27-1-2021 = 8
26-1-2021 = 3
25-1-2021 = 4
24-1-2021 = 5
23-1-2021 = 3
22-1-2021 = 6

  • Average Mystery potions won is 5.28

Untamed Booster Packs Won

28-1-2021 = 21
27-1-2021 = 23
26-1-2021 = 22
25-1-2021 = 22
24-1-2021 = 21
23-1-2021 = 19
22-1-2021 = 15

  • Average Untamed Booster Packs won is 20.42

Other Prizes Are Super Rare or not Worth Much

It looks like Reward cards won are auto adjusted based on how many Mystery potions are being used every day. Other potions are not super valuable. You are probably overstocked with Alchemy & Legendary potions anyways. So we'll look at how likely you are to win certain prizes.

Chance of Another Mystery Potion (Break Even)

Mystery.png

Chance of An Untamed Booster Pack (2,000 DEC)

Untamed.png

Chance of A Land Plot (20,000 DEC)

Land.png

Mystery Potion Cost

Depending on your Guild yo can get up to 10% off the price. You can get additional potions for bulk purchases. This is what it cost to get 100 potions:

Mystery Potions.png

  • At highest prices - 120,000 DEC
  • 10 Potions bulk purchase - ~109,090 DEC
  • 100 Potions bulk purchase - ~104,347 DEC
  • At max Guild discount - 108,000 DEC
  • 10 Potions bulk purchase (with Guild Discount)- ~98,181 DEC
  • 100 Potions bulk purchase (with Guild Discount)- ~93,913 DEC

What You May Win From 100 Potions

  • ~30 Untamed Booster Packs = 60,000 DEC
  • ~8 Mystery Potions = I'll think of this as extra 8% discount
  • At least 7 Land Plots = 140,000 DEC

That's Over 200,000 DEC!

If we take other smaller cards into consideration we are looking at a massive 200% - 250% ROI from buying Mystery Potions! That's just epic....... or Legendary :)

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