I have been wanting to do a Splinterlands Market update for a while and it has been long overdue. I think Splinterlands has been doing a great job of watching the card economy to ensure the cards continue to go up in value.
The Overall Market
I think the overall market for Splinterlands when broken down looks relatively healthy. I can definitely see why they decided to lower the amount of Reward Cards given away, however; for season rewards and daily quests.
- Alpha Market - Flattened out for 2020 with around 295,000 cards in existence.
- Beta Market - The number of cards are still steadily declining which I think is good for the overall health of the Beta Market.
- Reward Market - I feel confident that the folks @splinterlands are keeping a healthy eye on this market that now has 2.6 million cards in circulation. I wouldn't be surprised if rewards are cut again in the future.
- Untamed Market - Cards are still slowly rising which is what is to be expected with packs still for sale.
- Promo Market - A smaller market that may start to decline or go up depending on if "Orbs 2" will fall into this bucket.
I think the overall Alpha Market is in a good spot. Prices are a little high for the average player, but I think as more collectors come in and cards combined prices will continue to increase.
It's hard to tell from the chart, but the number of cards remaining is dropping pretty consistently across all 4 rarities.
Legendary Alpha Market
It looks like the peak of the most recent bull market for Alpha Legendary's was in September - December of 2019. Most cards are either approaching all-time highs or are making new all-time highs.
As of a few days ago, the Elemental Phoenix is a steal. If you can pick up that card around $6 it's a steal.
Epic Alpha Market
The Epic Alpha market has taken a beating since December and goes to highlight why I think Alphas are still slightly overpriced, but at a good price to start/continue to accumulate.
My pic right now is the Mischievous Mermaid for a card to target as it's the current price is around $1.15 and the all-time low I've seen around $1.
Honestly, if you're looking to build or strengthen your Alpha deck for the Alpha only tourneys I think now is a good time to do it. I don't see Epic prices dropping much further and any price below $1.50 or $2 a card is worth picking up.
Rare Alpha Market
I'm watching the Undead Priest right now. I think he's been a consistent summoner that has held his value really well since the beginning and has been undervalued for a long time.
The Stone Golem is another one I'll be watching as they've made low consistent price action up.
When you get down to rare and common cards you probably need to be more selective in what cards to invest in as I have a feeling some will perform a lot better than others over the long run.
I still say these Alpha Summoners are the ones to focus on, at least for me, in the Rare Alpha category.
Common Alpha Market
I'm glad to see @mattclarke is still holding his Flesh Golems, I'm assuming. He targeted this market early and it's an interesting look to see what the price action will look like as these cards become rarer and rarer.
I wonder if the Skeleton Assassin will be able to hold it's value as well. I know it was a favorite for assassin decks, but as more cards release with the assassin ability if this will continue to impact the price.
Overall I'm very bullish on this edition in the long term.
In the near term, I have a feeling these cards will stay relatively flat or will increase in value but underperform other cards overall.
If you're looking to build your Alpha collection now is the time to do it. Whether you focus on buying out one card or just build your Alpha collection you can't go wrong.
I have a feeling the Beta Market is entering a really good point. It looks like the cards available are continuing to drop as cards are combined or burned.
Let's see what the price action tells us.
Legendary Beta Market
It is nice to see some of the legendary summoners come down in price. I have a feeling that as more legendary summoners continue to be released, these prices will slowly drop and level out with other similar legendaries.
I would love to hear other people's opinions, but I'm going to buy some Beta Phoenix as well. It's the cheapest legendary by far and I think a decent card, but maybe people playing at higher levels have other opinions.
I struggle with what I think the price action of Beta's will do since they're pretty much a copy of Alpha's, but I'm cautiously optimistic the bottom is in or close for these Legendaries.
Epic Beta Market
It's interesting to see Serpent of Flame and Magi Sphinx outperform the rest of this market. I'll have to do some more research in higher games to see if I see these cards consistently or not.
As with all of Splinterlands, this price action is completely normal and as long as the game can continue to grow these prices will as well as more people can move in and buy these cards at a discount.
Mischievous Mermade is cheaper than it was back in March of 2019. Definitely a great chance to pick up an epic for this price on a card that is just going to get more uncommon and worth the risk at this price.
Rare Beta Market
I'm not surprised to see the summoners at the top of the list in the Beta rares. I am surprised to see Arlic Stormbringer at the top of the list and have a feeling the other summoners will either raise up to that price or Stormbringer will continue to drop down to the others.
Most Rare's look like they are holding steady. I don't expect much price action movement with these cards but slow steady growth.
Common Beta Market
I think the driver for Rare and Common Beta price action will be as the Alpha cards rise in price, the Beta's will be a lag behind and follow as they can be bought for a cheaper and price and are almost identical to Beta's.
This chart is a little deceiving because as Reward cards run out, new Reward cards are printed so this number will always be increasing at a certain rate.
It will be interesting to see how these cards continue to grow as the game grows. If these cards grow too fast it will saturate the market and everything could collapse. If these cards grow to slow it could hurt the incentives in playing the game. It is definitely a delicate balance and one that I don't envy the Splinterlands team having to decide.
Ruler of the Seas has always been a strong card when I was playing regularly and doesn't surprise me it's holding its value.
I think Lord Arianthus has taken a big hit when daily rewards were reduced and then the changes Peakmonster made to the rental market, but that's a story for another post.
Splinterlands is primed for the Bull Market and expecting/crossing my fingers for an influx of investors and players looking to buy some of my cards for profit.
My hope is that people stick with the game and don't expect 2x returns every year. I'd be happy with 8% - 10% ROI each year so if the cards are going up 5 - 10 cents every year that's an awesome investment normally.
Going to continue to build this Spreadsheet and track the values every month. I'm hoping to be a little more consistent but would like to sell it for 20 Hive. Would love to know down in the comments if you'd be willing to buy this information and what is it worth to you?
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