Speculating on Splinterlands Cards for the Land Expansion

in LeoFinance5 months ago (edited)

I've been buying up a few odd Splinterlands cards recently, thinking forwards to the Land expansion.

It's already been suggested, as outlined in this summary post by @flauwy of a Splinterlands AMA on Land that there will be some value in staking monsters to land or buildings.

The general idea is that the quality of a monster staked to a plot of land or building will give you a better chance of producing a higher quality item from that land.

In the above post @flauwy speculates that the 'older' and higher the level of card type staked, the more chance of crafting a higher valuable item - hence a gold aplha legendary is going to give you a much better chance of crafting a super spell compared to a regular reward card.

Of course all of this is speculation on @flauwy's part, but I think he's thinking along the right lines - and personally I'd take his line of reasoning a bit further, based on the fact that @aggroed is quite possibly going to use this Land expansion to increase the value of already existing cards, and I've got a purely speculative theory of how this might be achieved - through linking the quality of item you can craft to the level of the monster staked, but doing this in a non-linear way....

Non-Linear linking of the item quality/ amount to the monster

It would be a relatively simply matter to link the level of monster to an increased output, for example, you might have the following

  • LEVEL 1 legendary monster has a 10/1000 chance of producing a spell each day
  • LEVEL 2 legendary monster has a 21/1000 chance of producing a spell each day
  • LEVEL 3 legendary monster has an 45/ 1000 chance of producing a spell every day
  • LEVEL 4 legendary monster has a 110/ 1000 chance of producing a spell every day.

Alternatively you might make it so ONLY a level 4 monster can produce a certain type of spell - so a level 4 would be able to create a 'cleanse all spell' which would be super useful, while a level one might only be able to produce a 'heal one monster' spell, or something like that.

Why a non-linear staking model?

My thinking about the non-linear linking is that this would encourage more people to max out more cards, hence burning more cards and increasing the value.

At the moment it really is NOT worth maxing out many cards, UNLESS you are competing for a T50 slot in Champions league, otherwise it's just not worth 'doubling up' to get just plus one health in many cases.

More over, there are many many cards which we simply don't play most of the time, and land could be a great way of getting people to max out those and stake them for an ever increasing chance of producing better items.

This could be an interesting market

IF this happens, then the market for monsters and land could be really interesting... as people try to balance the optimum level of monsters to land!

'Crap' Cards I've maxed in the last few weeks speculating on a non-linear card-land stake theory....

I started off with the Beta legendaries...

Screenshot 20201117 at 19.16.57.png

I bought a maxed Frost Giant and Chromatic Dragon and L3 angel, and I finally maxed out my Unicorn too.

I now have at least one spare infrequently used maxed legendary per splinter for land-staking.

Then I had a look at some Epics, didn't like the prices so skipped to rares which seemed much better, but here I focused on Untamed...

Screenshot 20201117 at 19.18.09.png

Here I didn't buy the very cheapest - I've bought quite a few Truth Speakers and Elven Mystics (I actually really like both of these cards anyway), and I'm only a few off having a second maxed version of each, again for staking to land - these are undervalued IMO anyway, so I've no problem buying them.

Finally, I've been snapping up the cheap reward cards every now and then - they probably won't be the most valuable in staking to land, but one may as well have sufficient to fill up the plots

All of this is pure speculation

It's just a theory this, I may be wrong, but I have this feeling we'll all need a second set of cards to stake to land to make land work for us - and the better the cards, the more land will work!

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Good point on the non-linear levels, I haven't really thought about that. Hopefully Splinterlands integrates that as it would indeed be the best incentive to max your cards to use as land workers. Buying cards now is kinda risky, as there is still a long way until the land expansion goes live. A lot of things can happen until then. In fact, I have been selling all my spare Beta cards, including the legendaries, because I rather have crypto funds in my hands right now. And somehow I have to earn the full retail price for land plots first because I dropped out entirely of the pre-sale.

Not getting my Boss Monster so far from the first Kickstarter investment, paid entirely with my inheritance, is making it easier for me to not invest anything into the game for now (besides buying cards I still need for my main deck).

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It's all a risk at the end of the day - I have this feeling having some land, a decent set of maxed cards and a few spares is the way to go, I have been selling DEC for ETH which I guess is the same as selling BETAs

I didn't know about the 'boss monster thing' - I guess there are a lot of people who missed out there?

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I didn't know about the 'boss monster thing' - I guess there are a lot of people who missed out there?

Five people bought this Kickstarter perk for 2900 USD. It was twice as much as the "You are Legendary!" perk, which allowed the buyers to design one of the original legendary summoners.

Boss Monster Perk.png

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So they just haven't got around to designing that then?

I think Neal was a bit disappointed with the way his water summoner turned out - nothing like he designed it and nowhere near as powerful as he thought.

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Keep in mind that Neal got the Untamed Kickstarter legendary design and his summoner is out for how long now?

I am waiting for the Boss Monster for 806 days now.

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Have they given you any update on that?!?

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Yes, they have laid out their roadmap multiple times (after me and the others poking and poking and poking) and boss fights were far far at the end. At least they have now build most of the foundation for them. Next are guild wars and then boss monsters.

I have never been contacting by them directly about Boss Monsters. It was always the other way around.

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This bodes well for my picking up some cheap land - if this is taking them so long it should be delayed and delayed, plenty of time for people to freak out and sell of some cheap!

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Interesting speculation and I think it might hold some merit.
Ultimately, we'll have to wait and see what the team comes up with, but I also bought up some maxed level cards that I'm not really using just in case. I rent some of them out for now and will undelegate them once they are needed.
On the other hand, though, we know that there will be a total of 150,000 plots of land, so having a maxed level monster ready for them all will be next to impossible. We'll either need a lot more cards printed until then or prices might go through the roof for what we have. This in turn would be fun for people currently owning them but highly problematic for the new folks, so I'm not sure that's what they will be aiming for exactly.

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It is going to be a balancing act for sure.

I'm now focusing on good cheap cards that are playable - I don't mind having two or three or those maxed.

For renting as you say!

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it might be a working theory indeed and sounds plausible for how value is created!

I did make some good profits of selling some DEC after the rises..also something to keep in mind! Selling some cards now to buy back in two weeks when the price is better

I think that's a good idea, I can't see ETH ever being higher than it is now.

I swapped about 100K for ETH, bought some cards, and the rest is in the liquidity pool!

I will probably sell a little more just before land sale 2 and then again before land sale 3, and keep back about 50% of it.

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I can...!, it hit $1200 last time, why not again?

I meant DEC, not ETH! I can see ETH going higher for sure!

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hahaha I was confused as well.. I was about to say.. ETH has some potential this cycle still... DEC I dont really know...I guess your tactic is a good one...sell some keep some...it was a good roll indeed.

It's very unlikely that DEC will go above $1 - that's the point where it becomes financially viable to buy up packs of Untamed and just burn the cards!

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Hope the investment pays off for you. I'm loath to gamble much on the game having been pissed off by how the first land sale went. I can see a few big players taking a lot of the profit whilst those who actually play for fun don't get much chance. Just seems wrong to me, but then I am not an investor.

It is a risk, but not as much as spending $750 on land!

But if BTC goes to $100K then this will follow and probably more rapidly, I mean it's the just about the most obvious 'use case' for crypto there is!

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The slinterlands remain one area of the neoxain and hive that I don't fully understand yet. I understand it's a game but what's up with the cards and market for it.

Also, I think my knowledge of the game makes it not so appealing for me to make a telling contribution on this topic. I find it hard to assimilate the post but I still understand a little about the theoretical aspect of the post.

Also, I hope the prediction works in your favor according to the theoretical analysis above.

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It's really just a battling game - two teams of 6 monsters against each other, cards vary in value depending on their attributes, land is the next stage, which will allow you to craft items for use in the battles.

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Excellent speculation post. I wish more people would create content like that for the land expansion and for potential profits with Splinterlands in general. Keep it up!

Why did you go for Beta legendaries and not for Alpha/Promo and/or goldfoils? Because Beta legendaries are cheap right now?

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what about summoners? I assume they will play a role in the land stake as well for certain things...

All my main beta summoners are lvl 6 and I am reluctant to max them out as that is a really costly exercise. I just buy one now and then, but I also have 7 accounts with regular lvl 3 summoners running so the DEC mining is decent

I'm sure you're right about the summoners, I did buy another Bortus thinking that, they're also quite handy to lease!

I can't imagine that monsters will be able to do anything vary much without summoners in Land - it wouldn't make too much sense.

The team are going to have quite a job balancing this out!

Have you heard about Mythical?

No I haven't what is that?!?

Can't believe you put Spirit of the Forest, Gold Dragon and Phoenix in your 'Crap' Cards list. (Insert shocked emoji here).

I'm definitely not going to be buying cards to work the land (at least not at this point) but my HODL'g addiction has increased. 😂

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