Hey guys, as you might have notice there has been a frenzy about Alpha packs. I'm part of the drama, buying hundreds of packs of the pack and opening 2 GLF. That's another story tho, right?.
Today I'll calculate the expected Value of Alpha boosters in Steem Monsters. Those were priced at 2 USD at release, and I managed to get various at 2.5$ (7.5 steem per pack) and now the price is around 3.90$ per pack on Steem-Engine but which is the value we can expect opening one? I run some calculations.
I'm also using the @yabapmatt statement of:

Each card has a 20% chance of being rare, 4% chance of being epic, and 0.8% chance of being legendary, as well as a 2% chance of being gold.

IMPORTANT NOTE: potions DO NOT work on ALPHA boosters.

ANOTHER Important note: price on market vary rapidly, this is calculated as 10th of July, 2019.

Number of Legendaries: 9
Total minimum price of Legendaries: 70.55 USD (as of July, 10th)
Average price per Legendary: 70.55/9 = 7.83 USD
Probability of opening a Legendary per pack: 5x0.8% = 4%
Added value on Legendaries, per booster: 4%x7.83 USD = 0.31 USD

Total minimum price of Gold Legendaries: 2894 USD(as of July, 10th)
Average price per Gold Legendary: 8670/9 = 963 USD
Probability of opening a Gold Legendary per pack: 5x0.8%x2% = 0.08%
Added Value on Gold Legendaries, per booster: 0.08%x963 = 0.77 USD

TOTAL VALUE OF OPENING A LEGENDARY, GOLD OR NOT, PER BOOSTER = 1.08 USD

Number of Epics: 10
Total minimum price of Epics: 16.98 USD (as of July, 10th)
Average price per Epic: 16.98/10 = 1.70 USD
Probability of opening a Epic per pack: 5x4% = 20%
Added value on Epic, per booster= 20%x1.7 USD = 0.34 USD

Total minimum price of Gold Epic: 347.66 USD (as of July, 10th)
Average price per Gold Epic: 347.66/10 = 24.8 USD
Probability of opening a Gold Epic per pack: 5x4%x2% =0.4%
Added Value on Gold Epic, per booster: 0.4% x 24.8 = 0.10 USD

TOTAL VALUE OF OPENING AN EPIC, GOLD OR NOT, PER BOOSTER = 0.44 USD

Number of Rares: 20
Total minimum price of Rares: 19.07 USD (as of July, 10th)
Average price per Rare: 19.07/20 = 0.95 USD
Probability of opening a Rare per pack: 5x20% = 100%
Added value on Rare, per booster= 100%x0.95 USD = 0.95 USD

Total minimum price of Gold Rare: 276.98 USD(as of July, 10th)
Average price per Gold Rare: 276.98/20 = 13.49 USD
Probability of opening a Gold Rare per pack: 5x20%x2% = 2%
Added Value on Gold Rare, per booster: 2% x 6.13 = 0.27 USD

TOTAL VALUE OF OPENING AN EPIC, GOLD OR NOT, PER BOOSTER = 1.22 USD

Number of Commons: 20
Total minimum price of Commons: 5.12 USD (as of July, 10th)
Average price per Common: 5.12/20 = 0.26 USD
Probability of opening a Common per pack: 4 per pack
Added value on Common, per booster= 4x0.26 USD = 1.04 USD

Total minimum price of Gold Common: 110.21 USD(as of July, 10th)
Average price per Gold Common: 110.21/20 = 5.51 USD
Probability of opening a Gold Common per pack: 4 x 2% = 8%
Added Value on Gold Common, per booster: 8% x 5.51 = 0.44 USD

TOTAL VALUE OF OPENING AN COMMON, GOLD OR NOT, PER BOOSTER = 1.48 USD

BOOSTER VALUE, EXPECTED VALUE = 4.22 USD

Considerations:
Selling really high price Gold Alpha might be hard, yet the value is the one calculated. Any pack at 3$ or low is basically a steal. Obviously you need to open at least 100 packs to get an estimate or to "counter" luck, opening an extremely limited number of packs is a high variance decision.
What do you guys think? Do you open @steemmonsters pack?

I would love to open MOAAR Alpha ones!
Soon the calculations for BETA Edition too.