Splinterlands Beta Pack Sales and Musings
A couple of charts and some words on this seasons efforts playing @steemmonsters / Splinterlands.
I think I'll open with this chart, which is not mine and is available from the Splinterlands discord by typing $marketcap in the sm-voters_hut. Look at the MCAP rise in the past month, whilst STEEM has done very little.
The value of my cards has almost doubled, and I've not bought many at all.
$1100 equates to about 15% of the value of my Steem Power held, so you can see why I do check in regularly with Splinterlands.
A couple of weeks ago I bought one of the cheaper legendary potions and as yet, I've not pulled a legendary card from the daily or season quests - so I bought another one with a 50% chance, as well as a basic alchemy potion. Together they cost all my DECs, plus another 1400 from the market, which is about 43 STEEM. Hopefully a gold legendary card pull is on its way!
On to the charts that I produced myself today, using the price history data from coinmarketcap.com
I've taken the daily transfers to @steemmonsters from the 18th September 2018 (a few days into the Beta pack sales) where the memo starts 'P-', and summed the total SBD and STEEM sends for the day.
Using the closing price for SBD and STEEM each day and the total send for the day (and assuming card packs are $2), it was possible to get a fairly accurate amount of packs bought each day.
Between the 15th October and 10th November 2018, approximately 140,000 packs were sold. Impressive! Anyone know why?
December 2018 - May 2019 inclusive, approximately 165,000 packs were sold - about 27000 packs a month on average.
So far in June (to the 25th), 25000 packs have been sold, and so I think this month will just top the previous 6 month average.
At the time of writing, there are around 317,000 Beta packs left on sale. Based on recent data, these are going to take another year to go, but that prediction will hopefully be drastically wrong and a bull market will see these packs flying out of the shop faster than you can say stone the Golums.
Pointless chart of the day to finish, on what days do people buy the most/least Beta card packs?
It's Friday, it's payday!
See you on the battlefield, I'm gunning for Diamond 3 this season.
Asher
Friday is when everything good happens :0)
Like half-days at work and blazing afternoon sunshine!
Thems the ones, oh and don't forget payday!!!
The forecast for Saturday here is an outrageous 29 degrees - folks will be out topless half cut and cooked by 2pm!
29!!! That's insane, prepare to meet the lobsters!!!
Some interesting numbers there.
Personally I am holding my DEC so I haven't bought a single ORB or Potion yet.
I was building mine up until today where I probably a little unwisely thought fk it and bought some goodies - one decent card and it'll be worth it.
I'm fighting the urge to not spend them on orbs.
I got a secondary account that I will likely end up spending the DEC on 11 Orbs once I get enough to do so.
Yeah, I know the feeling and caved in the end. Fingers crossed something nice turns up!
I haven't tried the potions... It just feels like I'm not getting anything for them. I trade my DEC for upvotes.
I was just on the market - noticed the current price of the water summoner - and there's only 35 currently for sale.
I'm sure that's where the real value is - holding basic summoners. For obvious reasons!
Just snapped up a few other common summoners and a couple of cheap gold cards. Just going to hold them.
It's enjoyable - playing and trading!
I hope the @nextcolony team get as innovative.
More importantly, done much better with keeping off steem today - I need my life back!
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Depends if a gold legendary drops I guess - but could you really say it was due to the potions? :)
Certainly worth holding the summoners, the rest of the cards are a bit pointless without. I've not sold many cards at all, just in case.
@nextcolony has been a swerve for me, although I'm free-rolling just to see if they can bring any excitement.
When the weather is crap and you are broke, Steem is rather comforting :)
Actually, you can! Here's the page to verify the contents of packs based on the blockchain data: https://splinterlands.io/?p=pack_verifier You can see what you would have gotten in the pack with or without the potions!
Mind blowing, I just can't keep up!
Well it was worth asking the question for sure, thanks for the link and all the awesome work you do for Steem!
No freaking way?! How cool is that. Glad I thumbed through yet another stellar post by Mr DeepDive @abh12345. Thanks for bringing this up I had not heard of it yet!
I wonder if the odds with potions are better than the odds with just buying a Beta pack, when you factor in the relative chances of the relative returns?!?
Who knows.... I might buy a few potions just for the hell of it.
It is crap weather. I haven't actually been outside today, yesterday i spent an hour and a half on a treadmill.
I was going to ask... pay day? I didn't realise you had a job!
The potions are priced such that on average the value of the extra gold/legendary cards you get as a result of the potions will be worth more than the potions cost. Of course it's all random so some people might have better results than others. But the majority of the time, or over a large enough amount of packs opened, the potions should always be a good buy.
Hey thanks.... My intuition tells me that DEC's probably quite a good buy at current prices then!
Do the potions not have any effect on the reward cards then? @mikepm74 suggests not but as with the potions image in the post, the number available to me has ticked down with each reward card I've received.
Potions work with reward cards.
I calculated the other day that a 1000 DEC buy and a send to splinterlands was earning 20 cents after curation.
This will turn to a loss after hf21, unless you/I start voting self at the optimum time :)
The payday comment was in relation to Friday being the most popular card purchasing day!
I think it's about a 20% return on investment, once you factor in the curation 'loss to self' on the upvote value.
Although it's probably better than that because one tends to make more than 75% after.
True, it will be a loss after HF21, but it's still a little while until that goes through!
Oh I wasn't aware about that for Friday, haven't really had a chance to investigate the SM stats.
I did just buy a 100% legendary potion. I like a lottery.
Here's to lotteries and 20% profit on DEC tokens :) Now all we need is the sunshine!
Well it's here in Hereford, perfect day - just went out for some interval training..... round and round and round.
Once over it was a most pleasant stroll back.
Now i have to spend all afternoon in the dark marking exam scripts.
It's not bad here you know, hopefully a sign of things to come.
1000 DEC cost 2.5 STEEM this morning, and
x .75 = 1.29, so that's about 29 cents? Not bad I guess, but i assume you'll take a little more than that away from marking in the dark :)
Not if you work out the hourly rate and factor in the mental pain.
If STEEM hits a couple of dollars they will be gone in a couple of months. I'll pick up a few hundred at least. It's just tough to spend 6 STEEM on a pack. It's the principle of the thing.
I agree. I bought much of my packs when Steem was 2/3$ - I don't think I've bought one pack for myself since it's been below a $.
Diamond 3 eh? What level are your summoners?
Was Oct/Nov when the kickstarter was?
I tried the legendary and gold potions but they didn't work for me. 😢
I'm tempted to try again though. I miss opening packs.
Umm, 6/7 for the normal ones, and a maxed selenia.
Perhaps that was when the kickstarter was, but would that mean more card sales?
The potions work on the reward cards too i think - no need to buy packs?
A maxed selenia? Wow! And 6/7s. Dead jel!
I'm assuming the packs in the kickstarter are in the stats as packs but maybe I misunderstood. I thought we were talking about packs. 😂
The potions do work on reward cards but it's not an efficient way to use them.
See - https://steemit.com/steemmonsters/@cryptogamestrat/splinterlands-dec-values-of-potions
Yeah these are packs - perhaps it is those that bumped the numbers up initially :)
Thanks for the link, will take a look.
Since November the trend is almost linear...
This is such an amazing game that I just cant see it not succeeding. The biggest selling point will be the satisfied players.
I'm playing even more these days (addiction?) and made it to champion league.
Thanks for the charts :).
Yep very linear looking.
I think SM will become the jewel in Steem's crown :)
Thats 1000 packs sold everyday? Pretty impressive. I hope most of those are sold to new players.
Yeah the timeframe covers about 9 months or 270 days so it's more like 1500 - not bad at all!
The potions do work, but they are way too expensive. I bought the most expensive ones when I got the 100 packs anniversary deal, and I only just broke even.
It's tempting, though, because now all my potions are gone, all I get is useless cards in my orbs. But t takes ages to get 45000 DEC. I've already spent way too much...
It does take a while through gaming to reach 45k - I made it to 17k before crumbling and buying some goodies. I'll have to see how they fare, one good card and the DECs will be all worthwhile :)
I think the rental market is marturing and providing additional ways to get some passive income. My card collection/investment has done extremely well which is exciting with every going on here; if only Steem can follow suit!
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I'm glad that your card buys are showing dividends and agree - come on STEEM!
Hey great write up, thanks for the info!
A pleasure!
Since the introduction of the new front ends of steemit of various like palnet and many more. it has been longed i actually played the game last
See you on the battlefield :D
Splinterlands is the highlight of my Steem experience so far. This game has changed a lot for me and continues to change the game for all of os via Steem Engine. Best time on Steem since I joined!
Glad to have you buzzing about Steem again - I agree that steem-engine and Splinterlands have boosted my experience recently too.
Admittedly did not read all the comments on comments, so this may be old news by now, but after I bought both the legendary and gold foil potions before I realized they are not active on daily quest rewards, only purchased packs or orbs.
The only option I find value in is the extra reward cards, and maybe the daily gift.
There was an interesting announcement today on twitter that splinterland packs will be available on KuCoin, so a new avenue of potential growth. Not sure how that will affect pack value, as we can already see some sub $2 pack sales on steem-engine
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I'm querying
with Matt because the number of potions I have left (in image on post) has been ticking down with reward cards 'opened' - I've not bought any packs for a long time.
Although....... where are these sub 2$ packs?!
That may be a change then. I havent looked at my potion numbers lately. I do know when potions first released i read that and i dont buy a lot of packs anymore so i was not thrilled.
What i said about Kucoin was wrong, they announced that you can now buy packs with their native token KCS, it has just been enabled as a currency for buying packs from the site.
However, you can buy packs secondarily on steem-engine. The token is Steem Monsters Beta Pack (Alpha Packs also listed for $2.73). There are currently Beta packs being offered for as low as $1.24 per pack. I bought a few of them this morning but have to figure out how to transfer them from steem engine to my steemmonsters account. I thought they would just turn up in my open packs tab, but no such luck.
If you find a guide on how to do this let me know as I'd like to sneak a few Beta packs at this rather discounted looking price, cheers!
steem-engine has tokens for packs that people traded in for the token rather than bust open the pack, and they have the token for sale which you send in to @steemmonsters I believe (may want to double check that) and there are betas and alpha packs for sale in that way. Betas have hovered from as low as 1.25 when crypto was taking a beating to a more reliable 1.40-1.80ish level now. Alphas at the moment I believe are about 2.75, which is a pretty damn good buy but does not of course work with the potions, but those cards purchased as beta packs do. @mikepm74 the tokens after being transferred to @steemmonsters will appear in your account after you transfer them from steem-engine.
Thanks for the info. I could do with a guide on how to do this but will try to figure it out this morning :)
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Such great things being built here!
Absolutely!
Were it not for the price, I would say we are entering a new golden age on Steem!