Splinterlands: Land Presale Analysis

The first Splinterlands Land Presale happened this past weekend on November 7th, 2020. This is an analysis of the lottery along with who was able to get land.

@kiokizz has written up a good data-centric summary here: https://peakd.com/splinterlands/@splinterstats/lands-pre-sale-stage-1

Lottery Participants

As you can see from the game API:
https://game-api.splinterlands.com/purchases/land_lottery

There were 50 entries in the lottery for the 27 regions available:

	Lottery Entry
1.	@nealmcspadden
2.	@jesterago
3.	@cryptovaults
4.	@digitspin
5.	@tufkat
6.	@xorcyst
7.	@jarvie
8.	@neoxian
9.	@khazbot
10.	@michealb
11.	@redundancy4040
12.	@tameshon
13.	@mattclarke
14.	@azircon
15.	@cryptomancer
16.	@cryptoman976
17.	@mavrik
18.	@cryptorentals
19.	@evelynclarke
20.	@vcdragon
21.	@legendary-pool
22.	@surya1adiga
23.	@cat-land
24.	@ryan600
25.	@cannabiscup
26.	@peakpool
27.	@dhimmel
28.	@tppool1
29.	@tppool2
30.	@tppool3
31.	@zagorlord
32.	@blockchainff
33.	@shinlodragon
34.	@rtron86
35.	@moriarty95
36.	@argolinhas
37.	@abrockman
38.	@tufkat.monsters
39.	@monster.candy
40.	@cryp71x
41.	@peakmonsters
42.	@warlocklord
43.	@marcuswahl
44.	@lastdaypool
45.	@steelman
46.	@steem.affiliate
47.	@firelizsword
48.	@th12-kitty
49.	@cat-pool
50.	@glory7

Of the 50 entries:

Payment	Number	Percentage
DEC	30	60%
Credits	20	40%

---

Token	Number	Percentage
Region	46	92%
Tracts	3	6%
Plots	1	2%

---

Prior to the lottery, I had been carefully keeping track of people and groups that were planning to enter:

Known?	Number	Percentage
Expected	26	52%
Unexpected	24	48%

---

I do not have complete information (there are 4 unknown accounts that I am assuming are individuals) but to the best of my knowledge:

Composition	Number	Percentage
Individual	21	42%
Guild Adjacent	7	14%
Pool Group / Guild	21	42%
Organization	1	2%

• "Guild adjacent" are individuals closely affiliated with a guild who might offer some of their land to their guildmates.

• "Organization" includes the likes of the Blockchain Founders Fund.

---

Also:

• 7 entries were just to increase chances of people who wanted only 1 region (they were boosting their odds)

• 6 entries were additional pools from groups that had already submitted an initial pooled entry

Lottery Results

The list of the 27 winners can be seen here:

https://game-api.splinterlands.com/players/balance_history?username=$LAND&token_type=REGION

And the random results can be verified here (thanks to @yabapmatt for preparing this):

https://splinterlands.com/?p=lottery_verifier

	Lottery Winner
1.	@marcuswahl
2.	@cat-pool
3.	@khazbot
4.	@ryan600
5.	@tppool2
6.	@digitspin
7.	@azircon
8.	@tppool3
9.	@abrockman
10.	@cryptoman976
11.	@steem.affiliate
12.	@dhimmel
13.	@redundancy4040
14.	@jesterago
15.	@mavrik
16.	@glory7
17.	@cryp71x
18.	@peakmonsters
19.	@steelman
20.	@evelynclarke
21.	@shinlodragon
22.	@surya1adiga
23.	@neoxian
24.	@rtron86
25.	@cryptovaults
26.	@cryptorentals
27.	@moriarty95

Statistical Odds:

With 1 entry you have 27 / 50 = 54% chance of winning the lottery

With 2 lottery entries you have:

• 28.65% chance of getting exactly 2 wins
• 50.69% chance of getting exactly 1 win
• 20.65% chance of getting exactly 0 wins

--> This means an overall 79.35% chance of getting at least 1 win

With 3 lottery entries you have:

• 14.92% chance of getting exactly 3 wins
• 41.19% chance of getting exactly 2 wins
• 34.85% chance of getting exactly 1 win
• 9.04% chance of getting exactly 0 wins

--> This means an overall 90.96% chance of getting at least 1 win

Of the 27 winners:

Payment	Number	Percentage
DEC	14	51.85%
Credits	13	48.15%

---

Token	Number	Percentage
Region	24	88.89%
Tracts	2	7.41%
Plots	1	3.70%

---

Composition	Number	Percentage
Individual	13	48.15%
Guild Adjacent	5	18.52%
Pool Group / Guild	9	33.33%
Organization	0	0%

In terms of success rates, which is something @digital-wisdom was particularly interested in:

Composition	Success Rate	Numbers
Individual	61.90%	13 / 21
Guild Adjacent	71.43%	5 / 7
Pool Group / Guild	42.86%	9 / 21
Organization	0%	0 / 1

• No individual got more than 1 winning entry (though some submitted 2 or 3 entries). One pooling group got 2 out of 4, one got 1 out of 3, and one got 0 out of 3.

Presale Results

The list of players who were able to buy individual tracts and regions can be seen here:

https://game-api.splinterlands.com/players/balance_history?username=$LAND&token_type=TRACT

https://game-api.splinterlands.com/players/balance_history?username=$LAND&token_type=PLOT

25 accounts were able to buy 1 tract each (83.33% of the 3 regions worth available). In alphabetical order:

1.	@angelito26
2.	@beta500
3.	@birdbeaksd
4.	@conpike
5.	@coronadino
6.	@derrickc
7.	@firelizsword
8.	@gank
9.	@hazem91
10.	@holoz0r
11.	@jpcoco
12.	@keiyoshi
13.	@kira1995
14.	@mangowambo
15.	@marjanko
16.	@nateaguila
17.	@nexonik
18.	@pladozero
19.	@purplegoblin
20.	@rafelluz
21.	@road2horizon
22.	@sh4tter
23.	@thomaseamoran
24.	@tiffin
25.	@tontito

• The first individual tract was purchased at "2020-11-07T16:00:00.000Z" and the last one at "2020-11-07T16:00:18.000Z", 21 seconds later (over 7 blocks).

61 accounts were able to buy between 1 and 100 plots each for a total of 500 plots (16.67% of the 3 regions worth available). In order of purchase size and then alphabetical order:

1.	100 Plots	@sansuko
2.	31 Plots	@bandogge
3.	30 Plots	@foreveraverage
4.	29 Plots	@mac-spacer
5.	25 Plots	@louis88
6.	22 Plots	@rekodesign
7.	20 Plots	@lianara
8.	20 Plots	@niallon11
9.	17 Plots	@nicole-st
10.	15 Plots	@rafelluz
11.	15 Plots	@wehmoen
12.	14 Plots	@goldmatters
13.	12 Plots	@cannonwar
14.	10 Plots	@blazar-force
15.	10 Plots	@coyotelation
16.	10 Plots	@torrey.blog
17.	10 Plots	@viniciotricolor
18.	7 Plots	@lainiwakura
19.	7 Plots	@sevenoh-fiveoh
20.	5 Plots	@citrus-soap
21.	5 Plots	@ethereumking
22.	5 Plots	@kepslok
23.	5 Plots	@kizadan
24.	5 Plots	@thehermitmonk
25.	5 Plots	@xantis32
26.	4 Plots	@raiseup
27.	4 Plots	@slayzz0r
28.	3 Plots	@chorock
29.	3 Plots	@fullcoverbetting
30.	3 Plots	@maddietel
31.	3 Plots	@makogr4
32.	3 Plots	@scosmos
33.	2 Plots	@carpentr
34.	2 Plots	@chorock
35.	2 Plots	@digital-wisdom
36.	2 Plots	@dogboy
37.	2 Plots	@hagwench
38.	2 Plots	@haseez
39.	2 Plots	@holoferncro
40.	2 Plots	@kryptomario
41.	2 Plots	@mezzmezz
42.	2 Plots	@simoneg
43.	2 Plots	@trifenix
44.	2 Plots	@tsnaks
45.	2 Plots	@whizzkid
46.	2 Plots	@zottone444
47.	1 Plot	@abc.love.steemit
48.	1 Plot	@alex-hm
49.	1 Plot	@battlemaster
50.	1 Plot	@eduardovozzi
51.	1 Plot	@fabm
52.	1 Plot	@ito626
53.	1 Plot	@johnnancy2
54.	1 Plot	@mobi72
55.	1 Plot	@mongshter
56.	1 Plot	@smukkers
57.	1 Plot	@stealthtrader
58.	1 Plot	@tillysfamilyfarm
59.	1 Plot	@tillysfamilyfarm (again)
60.	1 Plot	@wolven-znz
61.	1 Plot	@yebaoba

• The first individual tract was purchased at "2020-11-07T16:00:00.000Z" and the last one at "2020-11-07T16:00:21.000Z", 24 seconds later (over 8 blocks)