Proposal #25
Proposal #25
Currently, @spl.council is asking the community to vote for the following proposal which expires in 2 days time. This is proposal number 25, and the current version of the proposal is as follows:
There was a previous version of the proposal, which is below:
This version didn't pass the pre-proposal phase. This was before sps.council was formed. Actually the dramatic failure of this pre-proposal was perhaps one of the triggering event for the quick formation of the council, although the discussion was happening for a while. I have voted NO for the proposal #25. The picture below shows how the top stake holders voted for the proposal. Within the top 15, 4 stakeholders have voted NO. I must also point out the the SPL team with their personal stake have voted generally in favor of the proposal #25. The largest voting stakeholder @vugtis voted NO to this proposal.
These are all facts. We should all agree on the above facts.
Why Write This Post
My goal is NOT to convince others to switch their vote. It personally won't impact me much whether this proposal to pass or fail. I am writing this post to record at my blog my current thoughts for my personal benefit because I just simply want to remember.
Since I am a trader for the longest time I care to remember let me share a few financial elements that is perhaps relevant to SPS list on any major exchanges. In the beginning of the launch of SPS it traded north of $1 and since then it is on a long and steady decline. When that happens most people who bought and hold SPS are at a net loss. There is a relatively modern visualization tool call Volume Profile Visible Range VPVR that helps quantify the price level where most people are average price of holding are.
https://joezabbs.medium.com/volume-profile-visible-range-e099f22cd2d7
This is simply a volume-weighted price, but instead of a plot as a curve (like VWAP, Volume weighted average price), this is ploted on the side along the vertical axis, as a histogram. The mode of the buy-sell volume, in this case they are the same (Buy histogram at orange, sell histogram as blue), is a price level, called POC (point of control). That is the red horizontal line, which corresponds to the price at highest traded volume. So for the history of this chart of SPS, 0.39 cents is where people average out.
You can argue, that most people averaged down, at least the current holders, and this is correct. So if I reduce the visible range, from Dec 2021 to Present, which is far more reasonable. The POC drops to 0.12 cents.
Why is this important
The moment SPS is listed on any major exchange, there could potentially be a rally (I hate to use to word 'pump', mostly juvenile crypto people use that word, no disrespect!). Most current holders, who are holding SPS at a net loss, will try and sell at least some of their SPS into this rally. Current price of SPS is below 3 cents. It will need to rally 4X to get to 12 cents, where most people average out. This is possible. At that time people will sell. I suspect the net selling pressure will be higher than net buying and therefore prices will fall. It can potentially come down to below 3 cents, if the net exit is higher. This is a simplistic scenario, the reality will likely be more more complex.
This is the way of a classic "pump-and-dump". See, I used the word 'pump' again! Damn it!
I am not saying majority of the community and the council is evil. It is the opposite. They are normal nice people. I like them all. I am saying people are potentially not seeing this. Or worse, they are seeing this, and ignoring the danger.
I think SPS is already listed on many exchanges. Listing them on another or two, won't really benefit us. It can potentially do us more harm than good. Well that is my speculation anyway. So I have voted NO to this proposal.
PS. I didn't even mention the 30M SPS cost! I also didn't mention in the current form of the proposal it didn't really give too much additional information.
Well, now I did :)
Thanks for this post...very interesting points. I was thinking something similar....Also, if people from outside the game buy, their purpose would most likely be to make a profit, and more than likely have no interest in the game.
That doesn't really sit well with me.
Having more options for players to buy SPS could be an advantage though.
Looks like it's set to pass though!
That is the purpose of writing this post.
Will they use the 30M SPS to trade against people or is it used to build up initial pricing with some depth? Hard to tell, could backfire and the timing could be very important.
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To build up initial pricing and depth. When it starts trading it is unlikely the team will have any control
So Rollercoaster Chart is not unlikely and some people will make good arbitrage gains on the way up and down.
That's a good and entertaining book. I hope you enjoy it
I'll let you know, will be through it by Sunday night.
Horrible time to be spending money to list a token in centralized exchanges. If we ever list, I like to do it for free.Yesterday, I casted not in favour cause of this. :)
Yes most centralized exchanges are fighting to stay alive due to regulatory pressures
Thank you Azircon for sharing your reasoning behind your vote. I think it is helpful for the community to understand WHY large voters make the choices they make.
I typically make my thinking visible in the comments under the post. If it is important enough like this one, I often write a post and record it at my blog.
I think you forgot to post to your blog though - it is just posted to C/Splinterlands
ha ha! All posts that I make goes to my blog, stays in my blog. It is a feature of hive and PeakD front end :)
Yeah, it's part of the PeakD frontend, but I don't think it's automatic, unless you've toggled it. On mine, I've always had to toggle it manually on my own posts to get them to show up.
Maybe it doesn't really matter. But look what I'm saying:
On your main "blog" page:
Instead if I want to find your excellent thoughts on proposal 25, I need to navigate further, to this one instead:
I think there is a toggle switch at the top of the PeakD interface, which lets you decide if it's reposting to your blog after posting to a community.
Anyways, maybe it's not that important, but I thought it might be helpful to know. I do it for myself so I have one clean reference, but I've only published 6 blog posts so I don't have much of a backlog.
You are correct. However, I just look at the link above. My browser is set up that way.
I think more off listing would not change much, we see constant crises of crypto markets collapsing or selling to other owners or even being sued for such, citing the case of Binance's CZ, Interesting that not all whales blindly follow a single context and have their own ideas, congratulations for the content in the post.
It is not about whales, it is probably a general statement for all.
What's the alternative though? Never do anything that will allow SPS to get to 12 cents so that people never sell?
What would be your ideal scenario for SPS that would avoid what you've outlined above?
If SPS organically goes to 12 cents or higher I am all for it! Obviously.
My ideal scenario is as follows:
I mean, that all sounds amazing. At point 3 though, would you not have the exact same issue... but the numbers are slightly different?
Personally I just think there is going to be a small rally and a subsequent decline whenever a token is added to a major exchange... so it might actually be a question of do we deal with that pain in the short term when less people are affected or in the long term where more people are affected?
I'm honestly not fussed either way... I'm happy to wait or do it now, but I just don't see how we avoid this scenario.
We don't have to do point number 3 at all. Like ever. Until a major exchange come begging to us :) and list us for free.
A major exchange can't ever list a token for free can they? They'll always need something for the liquidity.
You don't think there's any benefit in having SPS on an exchange that non-experienced people can easily access?
Binance listed Hive for free, so did Bitrex (not sure if I can call it major)
Do crypto traders play games? Maybe some of them do :)
Oh did they? I didn't know that. I thought they had to be supplied with a bunch of liquidity. Cool, thanks for that.
It wasn't really the crypto traders that I was thinking of, but more the people that have almost no exposure to blockchain technology or crypto, but still wanted to get invested into Splinterlands, for those types of people I would think Coinbase or Binance would be easier than Huobi or Hive-Engine... but I guess there is Crypto.com which should be pretty easy to navigate.
Thanks for answering my questions! Super appreciate it.
https://twitter.com/1429415246129729538/status/1641114641706237962
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Love the points made. While you mentioned that it's a simplistic scenario, the likelihood is quite high.
I'm all for exposure for SPS but the bigger concern should still be to get people to play the game. How realistic are we expecting that the traders on these exchanges come over to play the game with us?
yeah, traders do not play game :)
Thank you for expressing your opinion, I think it should be quite self explanatory when the highest Staked SPS holders in the game vote no to a proposal, it should really indicate that perhaps some more thought should be put in. With everything going on is it really that wise to expose SPL that much more? I understand from the business aspect of things however hasn't the Community shown its capabilities of putting in funds when need be. Anyways, I admire your willingness to help the Community. TeamPH salutes you!
I appreciate the kind words. The trouble is, the game is decentralized, so with lot of the good things, some bad things also come to us as a by product. It is rather difficult to reach a consensus, one way or the other.
I voted no. The timing is bad. It won't bring new players into the system. I am not the type to do "Technical analysis", but my observation has generally been that the market cap has remained much the same for SPS, but the price has declined as more tokens are minted.
SPS will "rally" when DEC is so scarce that SPS is being destroyed for DEC.
I am a "fundamentals" type of guy, I guess; but the world is an irrational place.
All roads leads to Rome.
Regardless of the type of analysis seems like we have arrived at the same conclusion.
I fully agree with you on this point and have been posting as such on all the social media I can. There is very little to gain outside of some extra publicity and maybe a few new eyeballs.
We still don't have the flywheel working for people to be actively burning SPS for DEC. We still don't have SPS player staking, so there is not even much need for new players to buy and hold SPS. Shoot, the only reason I ever bought SPS in the first place was to play in tournaments since they are gated by staked SPS.
I have no idea where these people think the exchange demand will be coming from?! I tried using crypto dot com once to buy SPS and it was a nightmare. Extra fees, longer hold times, centralized service, YUCK! I'm much happier using a decentralized exchange like Pancakeswap and the cheaper Binance Smart Chain to do my trading for SPS or DEC for that matter.
Add to that all the regulations and scrutiny that these big-name exchanges like Coinbase and Binance are seeing right now... the last thing I want is the US SEC looking at the SPS token and deeming it a security based on its ridiculous regulation by enforcement that has been its habit recently. There is so much to lose and very little upside for me, that this listing should be a slam dunk NO!
For me, anyone who is voting YES either wants an easy place to dump their SPS or is delusional thinking this will bring more players into the game.
Well the proposal will pass. But I will have this post to refer back to when this venture will blow up :)
I can't believe the 20M SPS fails but 30M SPS passes. Oy Vey!
I have no skin in this particular game but it seems irrational to pay to list on a centralized exchange with all the inherent risks when we have several virtually free decentralized exchanges that could be used?
yes, SPS is already listed in most meaningful decentralized exchanges.