Will Conclave Arcana Pre-Sale Sell Out?
I don't have a first damn clue!
We can do a thought experiment though. We have good plotting tools available and I want to test the hypothesis to see, what a tepid remaining sale looks like, and also what a full pre-sale sold out looks like. Here we go!
As of the time of writing this draft, the following table, and the image above is the current pre-sale situation. We are about 20% sold for standard and legendary packs. However, alchemy packs are more popular due to better odd of black foils, and they are 50% sold.
Current Pack Sale Statistics (as of May 8, 2025)
| Pack Type | Total Supply | Packs Sold | Packs Remaining | Price (DEC) | Price (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 500,000 | 104,408 | 395,592 | 4,000 | $4.00 |
| Alchemy | 100,000 | 50,887 | 49,113 | 12,000 | $12.00 |
| Legendary | 50,000 | 9,986 | 40,014 | 24,000 | $24.00 |
| Total | 650,000 | 165,281 | 484,719 | - | - |
Projection
If the current rate of pack sale goes on and tomorrow the sale increases at 1.5X the current rate and the final day 2X the current rate, then we won't sale out! Following would be the final projected table. That is a potential but unlikely outcome in my opinion. I have participated in many pre-scale and the sales growth is exponential is the last day/hour.
Projected Final Pre-Sale Table (by May 11, 2025)
This assume linear growth
| Pack Type | Total Supply | Projected Packs Sold | Projected Packs Remaining | Percentage Sold |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 500,000 | 116,358 | 383,642 | 23.3% |
| Alchemy | 100,000 | 59,153 | 40,847 | 59.2% |
| Legendary | 50,000 | 11,196 | 38,804 | 22.4% |
| Total | 650,000 | 186,707 | 463,293 | 28.7% |
What the sale need to be to sale out
Assuming exponential growth
This is the scenario, where I am assuming two things
- packs will sell out
- sale growth will be exponential during the reminder of the sale
Allowing those assumptions, for the remaining time, we can think about an exponential sales growth scenario like this table.
| Date & Time | Standard Packs | Alchemy Packs | Legendary Packs | Total Packs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 8, 10:30–16:29 | 177 | 22 | 18 | 217 |
| May 8, 16:30–22:29 | 330 | 41 | 33 | 404 |
| May 8, 22:30–May 9, 04:29 | 617 | 77 | 62 | 756 |
| May 9, 04:30–10:29 | 1,153 | 143 | 117 | 1,413 |
| May 9, 10:30–16:29 | 2,154 | 267 | 218 | 2,639 |
| May 9, 16:30–22:29 | 4,023 | 500 | 407 | 4,930 |
| May 9, 22:30–May 10, 04:29 | 7,516 | 933 | 760 | 9,209 |
| May 10, 04:30–10:29 | 14,045 | 1,744 | 1,420 | 17,209 |
| May 10, 10:30–16:29 | 26,236 | 3,258 | 2,653 | 32,147 |
| May 10, 16:30–22:29 | 48,990 | 6,084 | 4,956 | 60,030 |
| May 10, 22:30–May 11, 01:00 | 290,351 | 36,044 | 29,370 | 355,765 |
| Total | 395,592 | 49,113 | 40,014 | 484,719 |
It is hard to accurately plot this while the clock is ticking, but it would look something like this
This doesn't assume accurate remaining time. But just shows the nature of the curve. The reason I plotted this, because if you look at it, you correctly will think in the reminder of the time, perhaps it is hard to get the standard packs to sell out. It would be a lot of sale. However, it is likely that alchemy and legendary packs can sell out.
If I plot alchemy and legendary packs separately the curves are a bit easier to read. Again, it doesn't follow the timeline exactly, because as I write this post, time is running away. But I will try.
This is a more accurate representation with a closer timeline. Hopefully, I will be able to track where does the final sale lands.
It's going to be exciting either way. I'm looking forward to popping some packs open.
I'll purchase a few more but I also want to up my $SPS stake. I can see a lot of starter packs in my future, after the presale.
You still have time. I haven't finished my shopping yet :)
Sunday will be a fun day to watch the leaderboard 🍿.
Need to see if i spend my last DEC into packs or land choices choices....
Make a bet beaker! Are we going to sell out?
a bet.... i think we are not going to sell out... but a close finish even-though it does not look like it now.
SPS is on the move if that continues we will see some fireworks imho.
90% will be sold BAM there you have it
And what are your expectations?
I want us to sell out :)
Nice to see every packs will be sold out. Conclave Arcana is a success!
I have no idea if it is or it isn't
Would love to see people opening CA packs. I am as excited to see these cards in action. Vonak!
Me too
Part of me is tempted to buy 5 legendary packs. I have gotten a lot of upvotes for splinterlands curators. And this would be a chance to give something back to the game...Also I may finally get lucky and pull black foil legendary. But at the same time 120 eur is a lot of money for me so I am not sure if I should do it.
Buy alchemy packs with the same amount of money. Odds for BF cards are better
We will not sell out the pre-sale. Alchemy packs may sell out, but otherwise it doesn't look possible.
There you have it. A prediction! :)
Here is the current status as of now
Splinterlands Conclave Arcana Pre-Sale: Pack Sales and Remaining (May 9, 2025, 2:39 PM CDT)
Also here is the current performance of the exponential model for alchemy and legendary pack sales.
I doubt that the presale will sell out but my guess would be 40% standard, 70% alchemy and 35% on legendary packs. That will be about 2B DEC with half locked to the Dao just in case.
A very reasonable prediction. Let's see in 2 days
A Wake-Up Call: Accountability and Redemption in the Hive Ecosystem
To those who believe their actions on the Hive blockchain go unnoticed, it’s time to confront the truth. The power you think you wield through downvotes, vote farming, and manipulation is an illusion. True strength lies in doing what’s right, not in exploiting systems for personal gain or silencing others out of fear.
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If you’re downvoting critics, running coordinated farms, or hoarding influence to control rewards, ask yourself: What does this say about your character? Manipulating Hive’s reward system doesn’t make you powerful—it exposes vulnerabilities. It shows a reliance on unethical tactics to feel significant in a space that was meant to empower everyone equally.
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Real power comes from integrity, not manipulation. Instead of focusing on how many tokens you can farm or how many users you can silence, consider how you can add value to the ecosystem. Create meaningful content, support genuine contributors, and advocate for reforms that benefit everyone—not just a select few.
If you continue down your current path, remember this: you are being watched. Many stay silent, but they see everything. Blockchain data doesn’t lie, and accountability always comes knocking—whether today, tomorrow, or years from now.
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Addressing the Downvote Issue on Hive: It’s Time for Real Change
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Let’s cut through the noise and address one of the most pressing issues holding Hive back from reaching its full potential: abusive downvotes. The Bipcoin team has consistently exposed the systemic problems that stifle growth on this platform, yet little to no action has been taken. If Hive is to thrive, we must confront these challenges head-on instead of engaging in empty discussions that lead nowhere.
Hive cannot grow if nothing changes. How can new users and smaller creators flourish when they are constantly suppressed by those who exploit the system? Many so-called “whales” contribute nothing meaningful to the ecosystem—instead, they focus solely on farming rewards through manipulative tactics like mass self-voting, spam content, or coordinated downvoting campaigns. These actions discourage genuine participation and erode trust within the community.
Blockchain transactions don’t lie. We’ve seen firsthand the shady methods used to game the system—whether it’s creating alt accounts to amplify votes, orchestrating downvote brigades, or hoarding influence without giving back to the network. Why does this behavior continue unchecked? Talk is cheap. Actions speak louder than words, and until concrete steps are taken to address these abuses, Hive will struggle to move forward.
We have repeatedly presented evidence of these practices, not to divide but to demand accountability. The truth is out there for anyone willing to look at the data. Yet, despite our efforts, the cycle persists. Today, we’re asking again: Can we finally talk about the real issues plaguing Hive? And more importantly, can we take decisive action to protect the integrity of this platform?
Do not let bullies destroy what makes Hive special. Abuse of power through downvotes and manipulation harms everyone—creators, curators, and the community as a whole. It’s time to fight back against these toxic practices and create an environment where all voices can be heard and rewarded fairly.
The Bipcoin team remains committed to exposing the truth and advocating for meaningful change. But we can’t do it alone. Together, let’s push for solutions that ensure Hive becomes a place of opportunity, fairness, and growth—for everyone.
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I see you on the leaderboards. Good luck on getting Black foils and the raffle :)
Thank you
That's pretty crazy considering the presale on some of the other ones sold out in like hours or days compared to the sales lately. I guess it shows how much the space has changed as well as people's wallets and their motivation. This feels more like people buying it because they like the game versus people aping in because they think they can flip it for a quick buck.
Because of incentives, however this model is better
i'd be surprised if it sold out. Somewhat positively for the DAO, but negatively for me since I'll have relatively less chances to win something in the raffle - not that they're big to begin with.
Congrats to 6th place by the way - do you plan on trying to keep it? Might be hard, with vugtis still inbound.
I doubled my stake today. Had a few good months at the bakery, so I had some money left over for this. 100 Alchemy packs and 20 Legendary are mine, plus 204 Standard. Some HIVE rewards are pending, so maybe I'll be able to get the standards to 250.
why?
If the pre-sale sold out that is great for the DAO.
No I will not be on the top 6 leaderboard
That was an understatement as rhetorical figure 😅 And yes, it would be very good for them, and hence for the whole game as it will give them funds for future extensions and marketing and such - if they don't get mad with success and hence spend unwisely, but I guess we have treasurers to keep an eye on that, don't we? ;-)
Yes. I am one of the treasures :)
Guilty as charged!