Analyzing conflict for airdrops: how many CP do you need?

One of the biggest changes for the Rebellion set (and there are many), is the change to airdrops. For those who don't know airdrops previously meant getting airdrop chances from buying packs from the store, which incentivized buying packs, dumping them on the market, and then buying more packs, driving down the value of the set. Now, we will get airdrops from conflicts, which require staking Rebellion cards and packs. Those will generate points based on their CP, which will yield "chances", which will act as lottery tickets for airdrop cards.

This system has a few major features I'd like to discuss, the primary one being: how many CP do I need to expect an airdrop?

Some numbers

To understand how many CP, we need to a little math.

The first airdrop card (Rage), will have 4000 copies available (about the circulation of the first airdrop card from Riftwatchers).

Each card provides points equal to its CP and each pack provides 150 points.

Currently, there are 223,000 circulating packs and 325,000 open packs, for a total existing 100,000,000 circulating points that could be used for conflicts.

If we make some simplifying assumptions, namely that everyone stakes everything they can right away, then the math is pretty easy following from these numbers.

How many CP

Once we do this, we can find the CP needed for getting one airdrop on average based on how much of the existing Rebellion pool people stake.

From the graph above, you can see the relationship is pretty simple: as the CP staked goes up, the amount needed goes up linearly, maxing out at 25,000 CP to get one airdrop.

I have no ideas where this will land in reality, as some people won't know about it, some people will put their cards on land, some will rent their cards, etc. Personally, I am expecting about half the CP to be in conflicts, but we won't know this number until we get there.

No guarantees

One big change from previous airdrops is the removal of guarantees. Because the devs have chosen to fix the cardpool, there will not be guaranteed airdrops at any point. This means that all the math above is predicated on the average chance. It means 25k CP gives you one airdrop in expectation, not in certainty, which will be a big change from previous airdrops.

It means people should temper their expectations no matter how many CP you have invested.

Value

I initially wrote off conflicts as being a whale playground, but this math has made me think otherwise. Because of how few packs are circulating, it doesn't take too much CP to yield decent chances at airdrops.

To put it in perspective, $2,000 on cards in riftwatchers would yield 400 packs - enough airdrops for 2 guaranteed cards. $2,000 in Rebellion with today's numbers yields ~200,000 CP, which is enough for 8 likely airdrops if 100% of CP is staked. More realistically, that is enough for ~16 airdrops. Which is a 4-8x increase from previous airdrop models.

However, once others realize this, people may buy Rebellion cards because of the extra airdrop value they will generate.

GF

One interesting side-effect of this is the increased value of GF cards. Previously, GF cards were primarily beneficial for adding RP when you win a ranked match (and for getting you into GF brawls). To me, this was never worth the premium.

Now, conflicts change the math for me significantly. GF are significantly cheaper per CP than RF, ranging from 2-4x depending on the rarity. Every card I'm getting for Rebellion I'm getting as a GF. It means fewer cards, but it means significantly more CP for the same $ investment which means more airdrops.

Conclusion

I hope this has been helpful. With the numbers we have now, I'm optimistic about my own airdrop chances, and I hope this helps you think about yours.

Referral

Interested in this game? Want to get some airdrops? Join the game using my referral link below and I'll send you some cards to get started!

https://splinterlands.com?ref=badrag