Evaluating the ROI in Ranked of Almo Cambio
This is the 6th post in my regular series where I implement the method I recently posted to evaluate the ROI of a single card in Ranked (here). I have a number of cards I want to test using this approach, and want to share my results with the community.
As a reminder, the method is to rent a card and see how often that card is used in a winning team (where each win is worth ~$0.27) and determine a card's APY based on that. To be worth it, a card needs to beat the ROI I could get in other methods, such as renting the card out, or putting the money is a Liquidity Pool.
One change I am making starting from now on is instead of renting a card for 2 days, I will be renting it for 3. This will give an additional 48 battles with the card, and will help smooth out the variance a little bit. After two cards in a row where things were right on the cusp, I decided that every bit of data would help, and so I think this is a helpful change to make.
The Card
Today, the card I'm evaluating is Almo Cambio, a legendary neutral reward card from the Untamed era. This is the first non-summoner I am testing out with this metric. It is one I've come up against in battles (often with the poison ruleset) where it is really sticky and hard to kill. As a neutral card, it has the best chance of being used across a lot of different teams, and is few enough mana it can be used in a lot of mana cap matches.
How did it do?
I rented Almo at level 4 on Feb 12 for 48 hours, but then added an additional 2 days onto this as it overlapped with the EoS when I paused battling for a bit. During that time my bot played 179 battles. Almo was used a whopping 15 times, but only won 3 of the battles it was in.
Based on this, the APY of Almo would be 23%, below the return necessary for me to purchase the card. Moreover, Almo is an Untamed card, and will be rotating out of Modern in ~6 months when its cost will likely drop. As a result, I won't be adding Almo Cambio to my deck at this time.
Referral
Interested in Splinterlands? Want to start collecting cards like this one and join in on the fun? Use my referral link here and shoot me a message. I'll set you up with some early cards to get you a good start from day one!
Awesome post, i like someone showing some data with actual experiment.
What is your best tested card so far...
Glad you liked it! This has been a fun series to write - it's data I'm collecting anyways for myself, and it's nice to share my findings more broadly.
Almo is the one that got used the most. But Possibilus I think is the one with the highest ROI, partially because of how relatively cheap it is.
One thing I'm planning on doing is like a recap post comparing all the cards I looked at in one post. I'll probably do that once the last CL summoner gets dropped.
That's nice, thanks for sharing it.