Evaluating the ROI in Ranked of Astral Entity

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This is the 5th post in my regular series where I implement the method I recently posted to evaluate the ROI of a single card in Ranked (here). I have a number of cards I want to test using this approach, and want to share my results with the community.

As a reminder, the method is to rent a card for 48 hours and see how often that card is used in a winning team (where each win is worth ~$0.27) and determine a card's APY based on that. To be worth it, a card needs to beat the ROI I could get in other methods, such as renting the card out, or putting the money is a Liquidity Pool.

The Card

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Today, the card I'm evaluating is the newest CL summoner: Astral Entity. This card has a nice combination of abilities that make it good in lower mana matches with a redemption team, and in higher mana matches with a dodgy/high shield team to make use of dodge and ressurect. This is the summoner I've been the most excited about as Death is my favorite splinter, and it's one of the cards that I started this series preparing for.

How did it do?

I rented Astral Entity at level 4 on February 9 for 48 hours, during which my bot played 96 battles. Astral Entity was used once, and won the battle it was in.

Based on this, the APY of Astral Entity would be 20%. Unfortunately, this is below the threshold for it to be worth adding to my deck.

However, in hindsight, I believe this test was slightly premature. When I rented Astral Entity, it had been available for less than a week. Furthermore, because of the inherent RNG in dodge, I think its win rate likely has higher variance than other summoners, and is making it hard to find decks it wins in for the bot. Anecdotally, I used Astral Entity in 2 tournaments while I had it rented out, and it performed well. I was pretty good at evaluating when it would win and when it wouldn't, and in those circumstances, it is a solid card.

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Conclusions

Based on the above, I'm calling this test inconclusive. I am going to give bots a few more weeks to adjust to Astral Entity and the new rulesets to really find it a home before I rent it and test it again. This will also inform my future tests, where I will wait longer to test new cards for my deck.

Referral

Interested in Splinterlands? Want to start collecting cards like this one and join in on the fun? Use my referral link here and shoot me a message. I'll set you up with some early cards to get you a good start from day one!

https://splinterlands.com?ref=badrag



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