Evaluating the ROI in Ranked of Possibilius the Wise
This is the 3rd post in my regular series where I implement the method I recently posted to evaluate the ROI of a single card in Ranked (here). I have a number of cards I want to test using this approach, and want to share my results with the community.
As a reminder, the method is to rent a card for 48 hours and see how often that card is used in a winning team (where each win is worth ~$0.27) and determine a card's APY based on that. To be worth it, a card needs to beat the ROI I could get in other methods, such as renting the card out, or putting the money is a Liquidity Pool.
The Card
Today, the card I'm evaluating is Possibilius the Wise, one of the legendary summoners from Chaos Legion. Although I think Possibiliius is the worst of the CL legendary summoners thus far, and this is backed up by his having the lowest price, this means he needs to contribute to the fewest wins to be worth it. As well, some of the recent soulbound reward cards play really nicely with his ability to give reach, so he may get more use in the future. For now, I don't think it'll be worth it, but I can very much see being surprised.
How did it do?
I rented Possibilius at level 4 on 2 February for 48 hours, during which my bot played 96 battles. Possibilius was used 4 times, and won 2 of the matches it was in.
Based on this, the APY of Possibilius would be 55%, just above the ROI necessary for me to purchase the card. As I've previously stated, the assumptions I am making are likely overly-optimistic, so in practice, I'd expect Possibilius to return somewhere under 55%, which likely puts it right in line with the ROI I'd receive via other means. But, with the importance of ranking higher for better soulbound card rewards, this might be worth it. I've therefore decided to add Possibilius to my deck, especially because I purchased a Level 3 copy of it relatively cheaply, making the ROI even better.
Referral
Interested in Splinterlands? Want to start collecting cards like this one and join in on the fun? Use my referral link here and shoot me a message. I'll set you up with some early cards to get you a good start from day one!
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so its around even, we can just rent it out or play no much difference?
For my deck (and this is important, since the addition of one card is highly dependent on the deck it's being inserted into), it has an APY of ~55%. Renting specifically Possibilius out has a max APY of ~7% according to Splex. So if that is the comparison, definitely use Possibilius (if your deck is similar to mine). But if the other option is sell Possibilius and reinvest that money in e.g., SPS and put it in an LP, then it's more of a wash. Bur renting vs. playing with Possibilius, playing all the way.
Thanks for sharing! - @alokkumar121
