Evaluating the ROI in Ranked of Tarsa

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This is the 9th post in my regular series where I implement the method I recently posted to evaluate the ROI of a single card in Ranked (here). I have a number of cards I want to test using this approach, and want to share my results with the community.

As a reminder, the method is to rent a card for 72 hours and see how often that card is used in a winning team (where each win is worth ~$0.27) and determine a card's APY based on that. To be worth it, a card needs to beat the ROI I could get in other methods, such as renting the card out, or putting the money is a Liquidity Pool.

The Card

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Today, the card I'm evaluating is Tarsa, one of the rare summoners from Chaos Legion. As I've now finished evaluating all the legendary summoners, I want to test the rare summoners. Having Lux Vega means that each summoner needs to be more useful than her in a given scenario, which is not terribly often. So at baseline, I expect few of the CL rare summoners to be better. The exceptions are Thaddeus and Obsidian which are hugely impactful in magic-oriented rulesets where Lux is not.

But Tarsa is 1) generally considered one of the weaker CL rare summoners and 2) when up against Lux would likely lose as Lux gives both shields and speed to her team. One melee damage, while strong in the lower leagues, doesn't make as big a difference in Diamond. So at baseline, I expect Tarsa to not perform terribly well in the presence of Lux Vega.

How did it do?

I rented Tarsa at level 8 on 26 February for 72 hours, during which my bot played 135 battles. Sloan was used 2 times, but won one of the matches it was in.

Based on this, the APY of Tarsa would be 23%, obviously below the return necessary for me to purchase the card. So at this stage, I won't be buying Tarsa.

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Conclusions

Taking a brief step back (and I plan to do a more in-depth summary article later once I've finished all the CL summoners), I am generally happy with how this method has been working. I was worried that fluke wins here and there would make some cards seem better than they were. Instead, only two or three cards have so far surpassed the win rate needed and been added to my deck. This is a nice validation that my deck is fairly optimized as-is, and would require heavier investment to do significantly better in game. However, it does mean my deck likely will change very little between now and the release of Rebellion.

Referral

Interested in Splinterlands? Want to start collecting cards like this one and join in on the fun? Use my referral link here and shoot me a message. I'll set you up with some early cards to get you a good start from day one!

https://splinterlands.com?ref=badrag



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