Is it better to buy DEC or stake SPS during Phase 2?

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With vouchers being airdropped again, I am left with the question of what do I do with them? There's a lot of options. The first, using them to buy packs, I don't think is a great use. I'm putting value aside for the general sale when I'll get packs for $4 each (assuming they don't instantly sell out). So I definitely want to sell my vouchers and reap that value.

But what to do with that value when I sell them? Do I buy SPS and stake it for more vouchers? Do I buy DEC and hold it for more airdrop? Or do I buy DEC to buy cards and build up my CP while also increasing my SPS airdrop?

What follow is therefore a comparison of the ROI of selling vouchers to buy 1) SPS to stake for the duration of the month or 2) DEC to hold for the same time frame. I won't be looking at buying cards, as there are too many variables there (do I buy specific cards for my deck? do I buy cards to maximize CP/DEC? every person will have different cards, with different math, they want to pursue.

An important note

One important note here is that selling these vouchers doesn't mean I don't like Chaos Legion, or Splinterlands. I love Chaos Legion! And Splinterlands! But given the prices of the general sale, I think (and this is subjective) I will get greater value buying packs in the general sale than I will now. So I am left to decide how best to reinvest my voucher value in the meantime.

Assumptions

For this, I will use the market values available today (10/12).

SPS: $0.37

SPS APY: 44%

DEC: $0.0076

Voucher: $7.90

Option 1: Buying and staking SPS

Under these prices, selling my vouchers and using those profits to buy and stake SPS, will result in both additional SPS from the APY interest and additional vouchers from the airdrop. Over the course of the next 28 days, the ROI will be 25.1%.

Option 2: Buying and holding DEC

If instead, I sell my vouchers, and buy DEC with those profits, that DEC will in turn generate SPS from the airdrop, which I will also sell and buy DEC. If I do this, the ROI over the next 28 days will be 24.3%.

Comparison

A visual of these ROIs can be seen below. Possible the least useful bar graph I've made in a while, but it does actually serve a nice purpose: to show that the ROIs of these two paths is pretty much the same.

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Conclusions

So what do I conclude? THat buying SPS or DEC offer similar returns during Phase 2. Once vouchers are being dropped at a lower rate with a lower value (they should top at $4 following phase 2), holding DEC will be superior.

One of the really cool things in this exercise is seeing the power of the market. It's easy to get down on free markets with all the news today, but there are cases where the Invisible Hand of the Market works. Here, we see that DEC, SPS, and vouchers, are priced in such a way that they give almost identical returns. If one went up in a value, the other would go up in value to compensate. Perfectly balanced. And the extra % of return for SPS is the value the market has baked in for the cost of needing time to unstake.

So what will I be doing? I'll be putting most of my voucher earnings into DEC; the 1% lower ROI isn't a big deal, and I can use that DEC to hop on deals if they crop up. (I think card prices will fall once we hit the general sale, so I don't expect too many deals).



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