Some musings on the Rebellion release and opportunities

The last two weeks have been wild in Splinterlands, and in a fun and exciting way. Rebellion has released, there has been a minor pump of major coins, the flywheel for DEC and SPS seems to have finally sort of kicked in, and sentiment seems to be pretty positive!

Today, I want to write about a few general musings I've had on the set over recent days. These will each be a pretty minor thought, not worthy of its own post, and unlike usual, I probably won't dive into too much math.

Sales of the set have been much more than I expected.

For riftwatchers, 500k packs were sold in the pre-sale, and about another 500k were sold over the life of the set. For rebellion, about 500k packs were sold in the pre-sale, and almost 250k more have already been purchased! At this rate, there will be significantly more Rebellion in the supply than there was riftwatchers. What impact this will have on long-term prices, I'm not sure.

I cannot decide if Conflicts will be worth it for the general player

Prior to day 1, I was convinced conflicts would only be for whales. On like day 5, after seeing some of the numbers from the conflict in the QA server, I was convinced that conflicts were some of the best value proposition in the game. Now, with the delay, the greater purchase of the set than I expected, and with the inflation of GF cards, I am somewhere in the middle. I think it is going to take sitting through the first actual conflict and the exact numbers involved to really understand how this will pan out.

The Rebellion summoners, overall, are less impactful than I was expecting

I thought both types of summoners would be hugely powerful, and so far, I've been wrong. It might take some time for the meta to shake out and figure out how best to use them, but so far they slot in nicely with other summoners and don't feel over powered (some of the choice 5-mana summoners in particular feel downright lame).

There are some good opportunities for Untamed cards right now

As people frenzy to buy into rebellion and stay relevant in Modern, people are selling a lot of untamed cards. The EV of an untamed pack is down to ~$7, less than 2x the EV of rebellion. If you're looking to stay in Wild, or maybe pick up some cheap land slaves, now may be the time to do it.

Vouchers could be a good long-term play

Vouchers spiked to >$0.04 in the run-up to the first conflict. With that delayed, prices have dropped again, but the conflict is still coming and people probably haven't prepared for their wagons. I will probably buy a hefty amount of vouchers and look to sell into the spike when the conflict rolls around.

Conclusion

Rebellion is an exciting time! I think there are a lot of opportunities for people who keep their head in the game (E.g., smart buying and selling of GF in the first week or two has lead to some pretty solid returns for me).

Referral

Want to check out this game? Want to get in on the new set? Use my referral link below and I'll shoot you some cards to get you started.

https://splinterlands.com?ref=badrag