Splinterlands - How long will it take for the remaining Chaos Legion packs to sell out?

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Chaos Legion took Splinterlands by storm and no less than 15 Million packs were dropped on the market to feed the hunger of any warrior, player, investor, or blockchain enthusiast. Was the market flooded with too much offering or is it enough demand to fulfill it? I thought of a simple experiment to see how long it will take for the remaining Chaos Legion packs to sell out. Why is this important? Well, simply because after they sell out it is expected for the market prices to increase and to provide some nice profits to future sellers.

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To get our answer we will take a closer look at the New player's registrations and how many of them have also bought a Spellbook. This should give us an overview of the growth that the game is still experiencing and we'll be able to correlate that with the remaining amount of Chaos Legion packs on the market.

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While the Daily signups average is standing at good levels ~2,578, the ones that also purchased Spellbook cards are averaging around ~200, with even a low level for the day at 194. This is for me this is the first alert as I would expect the accounts that bought Spellbooks to also invest in Chaos Legion packs. I believe that this number needs to increase through new market strategies or partnerships in order to boos up also the sales on the market.

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Next, I have done a short experiment by counting the number of sold Chaos Legion packs during a 24 hours interval. This could give us a tendency of what is to come and if the same pace is kept will get our number of remaining days until a possible sell-out. As of yesterday 3-February-2022, the Total number of sold Chaos Legion packs was sitting at 7,155,728. Doing a new count today 4-February-2022, the Total number of sold Chaos Legion packs increased to 7,178,290. The difference for the day (24 hours) is 22,562 Chaos Legion packs. If we extrapolate this to the remaining 7,821,710 packs and an average selling of 22,562 packs per day, we would reach the sell-out in 346 days.

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And let's not forget that we will have a new 3,000,000 packs of Drift Watchers coming our way so I think that the market might be oversaturated for the moment. The growth doesn't yet sustain the amount of Chaos Legion packs thrown on the market and we might see the price stale for quite a long time. But who knows, we need a serious boost from an Exchange Listing or new gameplay or partnerships to get us there faster. I wonder what are your thoughts in this regard and what you foresee in the future.

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Yea I agree something should be done to gain some more momentum. Maybe even a spellbook promotion of some sort where new members go through some whitelist steps to get a free 1.
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Yeah, I would expect more users with Spellbooks as those might invest in packs and in the game.

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(Edited)

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We might have to wait a little longer to see these cards appreciate in value, I think newer players needs some kind of motivation in form of rewards to keep them hooked.

But am positve the economy around the game is capable of sustainaing growth over time, we are also yet to see how Land might play into the cards...

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If the CL packs will hold for 1 year I think we are in big trouble. Why? Simply because the earnings of the players will not go over the buying price and there won't be an investment to hold to those. And also many holders are expecting to sell so we are in a double dilemma. But let's see, an event like listing SPS on Binance will shift everything in a blink of an eye.

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(Edited)

Btw @behiver you forgot to take into account all the packs we will recive from daily quests and season rewards! That is a HUGE amount😎

Also, it is important to noticed that at the end of every sale the buyups will be boosted simply because players will want to secure as many packs as possible before the end of the sale.

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That is a smart approach,I totally get that!

Vel, how can this be boosted? Let us hope a whale comes around - then I believe we will see some CL pump!😎👌

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LAND might create a dent and you can probably write off the last 1 Million being sold in a week!

Also, they'll probably end up giving some of them away if they don't sell according to their schedule, they've started to do that already.

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Yeah, LAND might make things hotter but we need to see it launched first. Hopefully, they are thinking of new strategies and also give some for free to support the game economy. If that falls, also they will lose.

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I did the same analysis as you have done, and came to the conclusion that about 150k per week in chaos legion packs sell, but don't forget once it gets down to the last million, lots will sell quickly. So my guess is around September this year they will sell out.

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It will take roughly between one and one year and a half at given prices, till the sell off. The Drift Watchers will be gone faster, as they have a smaller cap and people who purchased Chaos Legion packs will fight for this as well, to have complete decks.

On a personal note, I'm at 25% from my purchase target of packs, and at the moment, I aim to buy them from the free market, as they are much cheaper.

On Drift Watchers I plan to buy around 3000 packs, depending on the price.

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