Soulbound card print rates, gold foil rates, and forecasts - Splinterlands Analysis

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The soulbound rewards cards starting going in print about half a month ago, so it's time to check in on a few things related to distribution rate. In this post I look at forecasted distribution rates and also GF % by rarity.

Overall distribution takeaways:

  • At the current print rate, it will take the following amount of time for Soulbound cards to reach the print rate of CL Rewards Phase 1 (i.e. Venari Heatsmiths, Djinn Oshannus, etc.):
    -- Common: 1.17 years
    -- Rare: 1.13 years
    -- Epic: 2.78 years
    -- Legendary: 2.32 years
  • At the current print rate, it will take the following amount of time for Soulbound cards to reach the print rate of CL Rewards Phase 2 (i.e. Vampire Bat, Jared Scar, etc.):
    -- Common: 0.65 years
    -- Rare: 0.57 years
    -- Epic: 1.34 years
    -- Legendary: 0.68 years
  • Based on the numbers above, you can see that the Epic cards will be the scarcest when comparing to previous rewards distributions
  • Epic and Legendary cards are relatively scarcer vs their common/rare counterparts when comparing to the previous rewards sets; however that's likely because of the increased drop rates of Common and Rare cards (specifically the high card multipliers)


    Gold Foil distribution takeaways:
  • It's fairly obvious when looking at the Soulbound GF drop rates, but it's worth mentioning that these are higher than previous GF reward drop rates. Specifically:
    -- Common GF drop rate is roughly equal (1.97% vs. 1.93%)
    -- Rare GF drop rate is ~50% higher (2.95% vs. 1.97%)
    -- Epic GF drop rate is ~155% higher (4.85% vs. 1.90%)
    -- Legendary GF drop rate is ~195% higher (6.10% vs. 2.06%)

So if you feel like you're seeing lots of GFLs show up in people's Twitter posts, it's not a surprise. However, from an overall print distribution point of view, it looks like they've done a good job of ensuring the Epic and Legendary cards remain scarce relative to their Common and Rare counterparts.


Here's the data. Couple of notes:

  • For easy comparison, I've added the Chaos Legion rewards cards (phase 1 in yellow and phase 2 in green).
  • Each cell is an average for that rarity/set combo (for both the distribution and GF % data)

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I really enjoy your posts. Great to see the big picture, and hopefully they cut off commons and rares after a year and introduce a new set. CL 1 rewards print rate was just too high, regardless of what land sucks up. We don't need a 1 time card sync, we need an ongoing demand to justify these print rates.

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Thanks! Glad you enjoy my posts :) And generally agree with your assessment but just remember that these will require DEC to unlock and they have hinted that the unlock price will be higher than the burn rate, so it's not really an apples-to-apples comparison with tradeable cards that don't require an unlock.

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