Splinterlands Node License APR analysis

There's been lots of talk about Nodes and their current rate of return recently, so I wanted to update an analysis I did a while back and see how things look today.

You can reference the table below for full details on the APR, which is based on the # of licenses sold, the current SP reward pool for license holders, the price of $SPS, and the price of $VOUCHER.

A few notes:

• SPS reward pool for license holders: currently ~2.783M / month (I did this by reverse engineering my own rewards).
• The voucher and SPS price increments for the table are just random increments I decided on for the sensitivity analysis
• I used a SPS/Voucher price ratio of 0.6, but obviously this could be significantly different depending on changes to the respective tokens' utilities
• As a reminder, the SPS and Voucher pools are split across all license holders, which is why the APR drops as license numbers go up; HOWEVER, if we were to sell more licenses that would clearly have a BIG impact on SPS (and possibly Voucher) prices, so it's unlikely that would remain the same
• Not all licenses are active (the ones on Hive Engine don't receive rewards) so the APRs/rewards are actually a little bit higher than what's shown in the table

Prices at time of posting:

• Node price used for APR: $622 on Hive Engine
• Market price of SPS based on current price on PCS
• Market price of Voucher based on current price on Hive Engine

A few conclusions:

• At the current prices the APR is roughly 43%, and probably closer to 44-45% when you factor in the fact that not all nodes are receiving rewards (i.e. HE ones aren't)
• If Vouchers were to go up to $0.1 (which is kind of their soft peg based on Energy refresh cost), that would make the license APR go up to ~55% (I didn't put this in the table)
• Even if SPS and Voucher prices were to drop 30%, the APR would still be roughly 27%

Of course, current APRs don't reflect future APRs, and obviously many, many factors affect this analysis, but for the time being this is the picture. If you feel like buying a node, head over the Hive Engine. Once those run out, maybe it'll be time to start buying them straight from Splinterlands again!