TIB: Today I Bought (and Sold) - An Investors Journal #587 - Banks, Internet Services, Healthcare, Chemicals, SPS/CHAOS, Gold Mining, HR Services, Industrials, Oil Services, Steel, Natural Gas, Media, Pharma

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In a volatile week I focused on applying options trading ideas to run with rising interest rates in Europe. Options expiry did the work raising cash with some tidy profit taking work in a down month.

This report covers all trades in the week and options expiry for pension portfolio only

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Portfolio News

In a week where S&P 500 dropped 1.41% to make two weeks of losses in a row, my pension portfolio dropped a more modest 1.1%. A 7.8% pop in De Grey Mining (DEG.AX) helped given the size of the holding.

Big movers of the week were Stuhini Exploration (STU.V) (+31.7%), Yooma Wellness (YOOM.CN) (+21.2%), Blue Star Helium (BNL.AX) (+17.3%), Barrick Gold (GOLD) (+11.9%), Yamana Gold (AUY) (+11.6%), Star Bulk Carriers (SBLK) (+11.1%), US Natural Gas (UNG) (+10.5%).

The theme that stands out is inflation and uncertainty driving gold and silver prices.

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The headlines this week were all about Ukraine. Markets are getting nervous and the talk of inflation all but disappeared.

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New York Times says consumers are not panicking. It must be all right. I am going to guess consumers saved so much cash in the lockdowns, they do not have to worry - just yet.

Blue Star Helium (BNL.AX): Helium Explorer. The pop in price follows the spudding of a test well in Los Animas Country, Colorado. My investment in BNL.AX goes back a long way to the time it owned oil permits in Western Australia and in Turkey and now shaping up to be a big helium producer.

Crypto booms and busts

Bitcoin price pushed higher 5% and then fell over finishing the week 9% lower than the open.

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Ethereum (ETHUSD) fared worse with a 19% peak to trough move - this was about the normal range for the altcoins

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HIVE was a bit worse with a 21% peak to trough move - this hurts as my HIVE holdings are large.

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There were a few coins going against the grain with NEOUSD up 29% peak to trough and ending up 9% on the week

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Avalanche (AVAX) was also up 9% on the week.

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Bought

AMN Healthcare Services (AMN): US Healthcare. AAP team topped up holdings. Rounded up my holdings in two portfolios to be able to write covered calls. Wrote a covered call for February expiry for 2.6% premium with 2.4% price coverage and 4 days to run.

Commerzbank AG (CBK.DE): German Bank. Share price popped 4% on results taking all my call spread risk reversals above the sold call strike (9). Normally I would close out the call spread and open a new one. I decided to roll up the sold call to a higher strike (9.8) on my April expiry contracts. This added €0.10 to the net premium. With trading costs accounted for, the trade is a net debit of €0.0255 per contract.

Feb17CBK.JPG

A quick look at the chart shows price breaking out of the channel and following the price scenario I modelled last time. I am keen to remain exposed to the stock as all my holdings have been assigned. In TIB585, I wrote that the primary exit target on this trade was €8.80. Selling the naked put and now this roll up changes that - I am inclined to let this one run and close out only if price goes over €9.80. I do have a June expiry contract with the same sold call (9).

Deutsche Bank AG (DBK.DE): German Bank. While Commerzbank went up other European banks went down. With price trading at €13.56, I bought an April expiry 13.6/15/12.6 call spread risk reversal. Net premium on the 13.6/15 bull call spread was €0.42 which offers maximum profit potential of 233% for a 10.7% move in price. I funded the net premium almost fully selling the 12.6 strike put option. With trading costs, net premium is €0.133 which ramps up maximum profit percentage to 952% with 7.7% price coverage. I am totally happy to buy the stock 7.7% lower than here - war in Ukraine might change that view.

Feb17DBK.JPG

A quick look at the chart shows price has pushed harder than the price scenario I modelled last time. I have put in the new trade which straddles the last high and the sold put is right on the support from the high before that.

ABN AMRO Bank N.V. (ABN.AS): Dutch Bank. With price trading at €12.67 I bought an April expiry 13/14/12 call spread risk reversal. Net premium on the 13/14 bull call spread was €0.35 which offers maximum profit potential of 185% for a 10.5% move in price. I funded the net premium fully selling the 12 strike put option. With trading costs net premium is €0.025 which ramps up maximum profit percentage to 3900% with 5.5% price coverage. I am totally happy to buy the stock 5.5% lower than here - war in Ukraine might change that view.

Feb17ABN.JPG

Let's look at the chart which shows the bought call (13) as a blue ray and the sold call (14) as a red ray and the sold put (12) as a dotted red ray with the expiry date the dotted green line on the right margin. The target is around the level of the previous highs. The sold put is below the last consolidation zone. If the market gets over its nerves about Ukraine, this trade will win comfortably. My sense looking at the chart is the trade is conservative and something a bit more open-ended makes sense - like buy the stock and write 15 strike covered calls.

Fiverr International Ltd (FVRR): Internet Services. Price opened lower and I averaged down my holding. Too bad I did not pay attention to earnings date. Earnings release showed improved sales growth and now free cash flow positive. Guidance was for a tighter 2022 and price was smacked another 10% - ouch. I am investing in this for the long haul and it sure feels like a long haul from here.

Loop Industries, Inc (LOOP): Specialty Chemicals. Assigned on a naked put at 11.7% premium to $6.72 closing price. This entry averages down my entry price. Income trades have reduced cost base by $0.63 a share but there is a long way to go. This is also a long term investment idea on the back of a cleaner environment theme.

Sold

De Grey Mining Limited (DEG.AX): Gold Exploration. Raised cash in one portfolio selling a small parcel. Locks in 1825% profit since August 2016. This is the biggest ever price rise I have had on a stock. Portfolio still has a large holding. De Grey is exploring a gold field in Pilbara, Western Australia as big as the Witwatersrand field in South Africa - the largest in the world to date.

ABB Ltd (ABBN.SW): Europe Industrials. With price opening at SFr32.31, a February 33 strike put option I am holding is in-the-money. I own the stock and do not want to sell - so I sold the put option prior to expiry for 53% profit since January 2022. This profit reduces the cost base on the stock by SFr0.27 - job done. There is still some way to close the gap to SFr34.52 purchase price.

Randstad NV (RAND.AS): Europe HR Services. Assigned on covered call for 3.8% loss since July 2021. Disappointing exit as closing price was better than purchase price.

Commerzbank AG (CBK.DE): German Bank. Assigned on a covered call for 3.7% profit since January 2022

Deutsche Bank AG (DBK.DE): German Bank. Assigned on a covered call for 10.2% blended profit since September/October 2021

Centrica plc (CNA.L): UK Utility. Assigned on a covered call for 5.8% profit since January 2022

American Airlines Group Inc (AAL): US Airlines. Assigned on a covered call for 17.9% profit since December 2020

Delta Air Lines, Inc (DAL): US Airlines. Assigned on a covered call for 4.9% profit since July 2021

Yamana Gold (AUY): Gold Mining. Assigned on a covered call for 67.7% profit since October 2018. I do like it when hedging trades produce large profits and the market did not go down in the intervening time.

VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX): Gold Mining. Assigned on a covered call for 6.3% profit since August 2021. In the same period I held this stock, income trades have delivered almost twice the profit as this capital profit. This has worked really well for hedging purposes.

Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY): US Pharmaceuticals. Assigned on a covered call for 4% profit since December 2021

The Walt Disney Company (DIS): US Media. Assigned on a covered call for 6.8% blended loss since November/December 2021. This is a frustrating exit as the AAP team is adding and I got exited. Income trades have mitigated 40% of the loss.

NOV Inc (NOV): Oil Services. Assigned on a covered call for 25% blended profit since October/November 2021 as oil prices pop.

Star Bulk Carriers Corp (SBLK): Bulk Shipping. Two different strikes went to assignment for 6.4% profit since December 2021 and 4.6% profit since May 2021 - averaging down helped.

United States Natural Gas (UNG): Natural Gas. Assigned on a covered call for 11% profit since December 2021. These shares were assigned on a naked put in December - well worth taking the risk then.

United States Steel Corp (X): US Steel. Assigned on a covered call for 4.3% loss since September 2021. Price has been quite volatile and not always not in my favour - I do still hold some stock as I wrote covered calls at two different strikes. I am holding US Steel as it is lagging Nucor (NUE) which is he AAP pick for steel.

Shorts

Airbnb, Inc (ABNB): Travel Services. With price closing at $180.07, I closed out February expiry 155 strike bought put to recover some premium as I do not think price is going to drop more than 15% this coming week. I remain exposed to two short puts at 146 strike. I do not mind buying the stock at that level if price does collapse this week. Price closed at $174.90, comfortably away from the danger zone.

Electricité de France S.A. (EDF.PA): French Utility. Price traded down to €7.92 during Friday trade. Rather than take the chance of being assigned on the strike 8 sold put option I rolled the sold put out to April strike 7.8. This converts the calendar spread into a diagonal spread and is consistent with the strategy, especially as price did close at €8.21 which leaves the bought put still out the money. The buy back was at a €0.01 loss plus trading costs = a small factor. The sold put raised €0.248 net premium after trading costs compared with the net cost of the bought put of €0.58.

Expiring Options

Cameco Corp (CCJ): Uranium. With price closing at $20.22, strike 23 call option rolled up last month expired worthless. Sometimes it is simply better to take the reduced premium and forget about rolling up.

Cryptocurrency

Splinterlands

I watched a [video segment](video segment) with @jongolson talking about the first month of Listnerds. The back end of the segment was a discussion about Splinterlands and the potential to earn from gaming. I am not a gamer - it is an addictive time sink. But if one can get paid, it is worth exploring. I want to find ways to participate without doing the gaming. The first idea was to buy CHAOS on the open market where it sells for around $3.20 each. One CHAOS gives you access to one Chaos Legion Booster Pack. These sell inside Splinterlands for $4. Straight away I can see an arbitrage opportunity. A little more digging and I discover that one pack has 5 cards that can be used in the game. There is a chance that one of those cards could be worth a lot more than $4. But you have to participate in the game to earn the power to open the packs. I bought some CHAOS both inside and outside. Transferring in and out is seamless and free.

Splinterlands runs on the Hive blockchain. Its key token is SPS which is being included as part of a 3 month long airdrop. I bough a few SPS and am staking those to earn rights to the airdrop SPS. Current APR is 31.9% = easy money paid daily. As for the gaming, it is a card game which looks straight forward enough. Start with a free deck of cards and organize battles against other players drawing on the powers the cards have. The variables are legion which makes for a long learning curve. And winning is not easy for a novice. That encourages the novices to buy more cards.

What was the best part for me? The exchange rate between Splinterlands and SBD (Steem Backed Dollars) is wonky. I am buying CREDITS with SBD which fits into my plan to exit Steemit completely. And I can exchange those without Bittrex spreads.

I found some cool videos from @braaiboy perfect for beginners.

Income Trades

I made a few changes for income trades with fewer naked puts and more Bull Put trades in a few places. These are then classified as investing trades and not income trades. 72 covered calls written in my pension portfolio (UK 2, US 60 Europe 13) of which 14 were assigned (US 11 Europe 3). Only 9 naked puts written (US 8 Europe 1) with only one assigned in US.

Covered Calls

Mandiant, Inc. (MNDT): Cybersecurity. With price trading above $17.50, I bought back the covered call for a small loss plus trading costs. I want to hold onto the stock and watch the Microsoft merger play out.

Naked Puts

****Tesla, Inc** (TSLA): US Automotive. With price opening at $900, I closed out the February 830/780 bull put spread to cut the risk of being assigned at $830 a share. This yielded a net return of 4.7% for two weeks. I converted the original 830 strike naked put to a credit spread last week. Next trade will be set up closer to the money with a tighter risk spread. I do not have the cash to run the risk of being assigned at $830 a share.

Cautions: This is not financial advice. You need to consider your own financial position and take your own advice before you follow any of my ideas

Images: I own the rights to use and edit the Buy Sell image. News headlines come from Google Search. All other images are created using my various trading and charting platforms. They are all my own work

Tickers: I monitor my portfolios using Yahoo Finance. The ticker symbols used are Yahoo Finance tickers. Crypto tickers come from TradingView

Charts: http://mymark.mx/TradingView - this is a free charting package. I have a Pro subscription to get access to real time forex prices

Trading: Binance offers a wide range of coins to trade, tight spreads and low fees if you use BNB to pay https://mymark.mx/Binance

Kucoin offers a wider range of altcoins than many of the other exchanges. I do like to diversify my holdings in case an exchange gets knocked over. Grab 15% discount on your trades whn you open an account on this link https://mclnks.com/kucoin15

Tracking: Keeping track of your crypto trades is a whole lot easier with CoinTracking.info. Get 10% off all your account upgrades https://mymark.mx/CoinTracking

February 14-18, 2022

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta



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9 comments
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Great write-up. Looks like a good bit of stocks were assigned this week. For the number of trades probably not that many.
I have been playing Splinterlands game and I agree it is a timesink.
Here is the link to a webpage which calculates the value of card packs.
https://www.splintercards.com/tool-packvalue.html?ed=7&qty=100&cost=4.00&pot=0&guild=0
Keeping in mind that a basic pack is worth only 1.16.
Estimated value of a basic pack (4 commons & 1 rare, regular foil) $: 1.166
So unless you are investing in 100's to 1000's of packs there is a good chance you are losing value on each pack. Card rentals are probably a little better than playing the game. It still takes a good bit of management with each 3 DEC rental being worth 1 penny. I find writing a covered call for $20.00 profit much easier than getting $20.00 from managing the listing of 100's of cards.

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It was perfect timing to raise some capital. I will be holding a fair bit back in the next few weeks until we see what transpires in Ukraine.

Thanks for the ideas and the analysis on Splinterlands. I will go slowly and think about some trade ideas to make $20 extra a month - credit spreads on Coinbase might be an idea. I will see what other crypto stocks make sense to own

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I believe the coins will definitely pump in price back sooner or later because that's what we will experience in the world of Crypto the inflation and deflation of price.

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The reason I post the weekly move in price in Bitcoin is to keep track of the volatility. I am used to it now because of the data I collect. 10 to 20% peak to trough in a week is normal.

Pretty funny as the headline this morning was S&P500 enters correction territory. That is 10% down from the all time highs a few weeks back. Bitcoin does that almost every week.

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Thanks for the shoutout... only just started with the new series, but we'll be releasing new videos pretty regularly from next month.

!LUV
!PIZZA
!WINE

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I love your videos - I grew up in SA and relate to your humour really well. The simple step by step approach works a treat. As for the beer, my father was a director of SAB and I worked there quite a bit.

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