Short analysys of Splinterlands - tell me i'm wrong

Disclamer! If you want a positive article this one is NOT for you

It’s been a while since this particular idea came to mind but I was always postponed it. Maybe because a little part of me wanted me to be wrong about the game but I’m probably not.

Мost of the things I will write from here on out show the lack of advantages or even equality towards the small player.

For me the team is doing the wrong thing for a while,focusing what you can earn in the game from whale's point of perspective, although they’ve done some good new modes and implemented new skins . They also make the game all too complicated for someone that wants to start now(as of March 2026).

The thing i was implementing above,for the past few years the team mainly focusing most if not all of the events and new packs and expansions to be tempting and appropriate for the ‘’golden goose’’, few players that have a lot of money.
For the new players and average JOE its hard to compete with the whales or even stay in a good position with every new thing that’s implemented.

For example:
One of the things that I really liked about the reward system,that the amount of glint you can get per season and the amount of chests you can open. The pull rates were not so bad and it was fairly easy to stay in touch with the progression of the game. But they manage to ruin that too alongside everything land and pools related. They up the prices with the new rewards and lower the rates of golden cards and high rarity pulls from the chests. Last year it was 33 % to pull a card now its 39% but pulling anything over rare rarity is like seeing an unicorn. They lower the merits and the potion percentages too, in order to put Scrolls and Entries. Which is basically Loot Boxes paradox
"Loot Boxes paradox" -Using RNG (random number generation) to offer small wins frequently, keeping players hooked while the overall value remains low.

Other thing they do wrong is when you have declining player’s mass and you still jack up the prices of exclusives and special event cards. I won’t go too deep into this because the post will become as long as ‘’ War and Peace’’.

Let’s continue with ‘’the hidden weapon’’ of the game SPS.
The supply of the token was originally set to end around the end of this year or early 2027 but we are far away from 3 billion hard cap. So it should be even better for all the players that stack up.Right?
I think in this rate we might not even reach the end date...

The peak of SPS was around 1.07 -1.27$ per shard token in July of 2021 I think. In December same year it was roughly 5x to 8x lower than its all-time high(16-27 cents per token).
As of today the price of SPS is approximately $0.0058 which means… Drums…

The price has declined by ~219 times (or approximately 99.5%) from its all-time high of $1.27.
To be correct I have to say that the token has faced a persistent long-term "down-only" trajectory, briefly bottoming out at an all-time low of $0.0041 in August 2024. So today’s numbers are not ATL.

The most underestimate stats for me by the team is the player base decline.
In late 2021 the game had between 100k-400k different daily unique active wallets(dUAW).
In 2023 the numbers were halved with peak 208,339 dUAW but in most cases under 100k
Since the middle of 2024 there are rare occasions were the game touches 10k accounts.
After that in 2025. Recent estimates suggest a more "realistic" representation of the actual human player base is around 6,600 daily players.
The statistics can’t show how many of those are actually bots.
In my main account I’ve made more than 25k battles but nowadays I’ve left the XBOT to do the work. My secondary accounts are the same with less battles made by me in the range of 4000-8000.
I doubt that there are more than 500 active players right now mostly whales and players that caught ‘’the wave ‘’ of 2021. Of course there are few new enthusiasts that play the game for free or with limited budget but I doubt that they will stick when they realize how much money and time you have to spend in order to compete or earn something.

This decline helped destroying the rental market for sure. Many players like me used the resources from it to get new cards or buy some assets. Nowadays few players means few rentings out. But that’s another story for another day.

I’ve invested way more than the average Joe and at some point still could not compete after the end of 2024.Now the initial lost from my investment is 85-90% if we get into considering the stacking , lost card value and not to mention the wasted time.

Let me give you another not so great statistic I’ve searched and find from different sources .
This shows since 2021 till now how many months the crypto markerts were up and SPS was down and vice a versa.
*Тhis is not 100% accurate as there are days when it differs but it is approximately 90-95% accurate according to my checking that’s why I put ’’~’’, i average in favor of SPL.

Total Months Elapsed: ~56 months (from July ) as most of the new players came few months after but i wanted to include the peak

Crypto Market "Up" / SPS "Down": ~32 months.
During the massive market rallies of late 2021, late 2023, and the record-breaking 2024–2025 bull run (where Bitcoin hit $126k), SPS continued to lose value or traded sideways.

Both "Down" (Bear Market): 20 months. SPS and the broader market crashed together during the 2022 "Crypto Winter" and the recent correction starting in late 2025.

SPS "Up" / Market "Down": < 2 months. This has almost never happened. SPS occasionally saw "dead cat bounces" (short, temporary spikes) while the market was flat, but it hasn't sustained an upward trend against a falling market.

Both "Up": ~2 months. The only significant period where both rose was the initial hype window between August and October 2021.

Before the end I wanted to remind you that the game is play-to-earn and not play -to-go -to -hyperinflation . In 2021 play-to-earn had a different sound than today’s reality i guess .

In conclusion I asked the AI ‘’if you have to make a prediction is there a chance for Splinterlands to go down in the next few years and is there a chance to thrive ?’’
I’m posting the full answer .

‘’Predicting the future of a blockchain game like Splinterlands involves weighing its long-term survival against the extreme volatility of the crypto-gaming market.
The Case for Decline (Estimated Probability: 65%) While the game has shown remarkable resilience, several factors suggest a difficult road ahead: Token Over-Saturation: With a hard cap of 3 billion SPS and continuous emissions, the constant sell pressure from reward-seeking players has historically outpaced new capital. Declining Player Base: After peaking in 2021-2022, the active player count has significantly decreased. New users are often deterred by the high cost of competitive decks and the steep learning curve. Competition: Newer Web3 games with more advanced graphics and "play-and-earn" (rather than play-to-earn) models are competing for the same limited pool of blockchain gamers.

The Case for Thriving (Estimated Probability: 35%) Splinterlands has several unique "moats" that could lead to a major recovery: Ecosystem Maturity: Having survived for 7+ years, the game has outlasted nearly all its 2021 peers. This "Lindy Effect" suggests that the longer it survives, the more likely it is to persist. Governance & DAO Power: The shift to a DAO-controlled model allows the community to vote on burning tokens, changing reward structures, and launching new features like Land and the Validator network. Deflationary Mechanics: Recent updates have focused on burning SPS and introducing sinks (like Land resource crafting) to reduce supply. If these successfully outpace inflation once the 65-month minting period ends (early 2027), scarcity could drive a price recovery.

Summary of Outlook

Scenario Steady Decline
Probability 65%
Key Driver Continued selling pressure and failure to attract a large wave of new mainstream players.

Scenario Thrive / Recovery
Probability 35%
Key Driver Successful Land expansion, reaching the SPS supply cap, and a broader Web3 gaming bull run. ‘’

I can go on and on but we all need to face the music. Miracles happens but rarely (more rarely than getting legendary card from 500 glint reward chest – Wink Wink )

Many factors that I did not touch here are to be considered – World’s economics , inflation , crypto space volatility but the facts are not in Splinterlands' favor .

Told you it won’t be positive but I think its fairly true. 😃

The art of the game in 2021 is what hooked me up put the play- to-earn side after they change the art work its kinda not the same purely as NFT art form.

I want to say special thanks to Dwayne Cunningham, AfterSound Gaming, Gathering The Magic , also nearly all the players that streamed the game on twitch ( with few exceptions , few whiny little souls I think did not deserve to be mentioned by names) ,to XBOT creator 5ylar / 5ylar1 who helped me a lot with the earnings when I stop seeing the point of playing battles, to Golem Overlord who have a game on HIVE where I earn more in 2 years than all the years in SPL even though I put all my earnings from it into SPL because I believed in it. And last but not least to Dr. Jesse "Aggroed" Reich or as all of us call him Aggy for making this past experience possible.

I hope the game thrives but I have my serious doubts.