Analysis of Investment Opportunities in Packs by Time Horizon

Best regards Splinterlovers 💚

In yesterday’s post, I spoke generally about the older packs; I conducted an analysis based on their price history and on how packs are one of the most important assets in the game’s ecosystem, with great value, since they are also the main source of revenue for the team and the company. Therefore, as long as they perform well, the team can continue working on the game while we keep growing at the same time, but the reality is that it goes much further than that, because, as I explained, “Packs” are a finite asset and a low-risk investment due to their potential for appreciation over time.

However, there’s another aspect I haven’t covered yet: the time horizon and the metrics that drive demand—which is ultimately what matters, since without it, prices couldn’t rise. That’s why in today’s post I want to address precisely this, since many players aren’t entirely clear on how this investment works; they think it’s just about opening packs and getting cards, and nothing could be further from the truth. so, to show you how it really works, you should pay close attention to this post.

So, if you want to learn how to invest in “Packs”—which, in my opinion, is one of the safest investments in the Splinterlands ecosystem today and has been for years now—stick around until the end of this post.

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Analysis of the Temporary Investment Opportunity in the Packs

Okay, here I’ll explain what I mean by “investment” and the time horizon you need to consider, as well as what kinds of events ultimately drive demand for “Packs.” As I mentioned in the introduction, packs aren’t just about opening them and getting cards; in fact, if you want them to lose their value immediately, that’s exactly what you should do. So, if you want to profit—and by that I mean a return over time, most likely and most reliably in the medium and long term—you should keep reading.

So, to put things in context for everyone, the first thing we need to look at is time horizons—I’m referring to what’s considered the short, medium, and long term—because this may vary for each person. However, in Splinterlands, it works differently, since packs have, so to speak, a period of maximum volatility before they run out.

• Short Term (1–3 Months)
• Medium Term (6–12 Months)
• Long Term (1–3 Years)

Things to Keep in Mind

NOTE: Of course, each of these time frames has its own rationale. It’s important to understand them because, if managed perfectly, the reality is that you could make a very good profit—but this must be done at the right times, not just any time. I’ll explain more about that in the next section so that it’s completely clear.

How do these deadlines work, and what factors should be taken into account?

To start, I’ll focus on the most recent known SETS that can be played in the “Modern” format—namely, Rebellion and Conclave Arcana—so I think this will make it easier to explain:

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Explanation of Time Horizons and Investing

• Short Term (1–3 Months): Well, when a new SET or complete edition is released, it’s one of the most important moments for it, since demand is driven by pre-sales and later by the active “Conflicts.” Here, Wizard Cars and other items are needed for it to work, so if you want to win the Airdrop card, you need to place Packs in the cars in a sort of staking process to make it work. In this timeframe, the investment outlook is Neutral-Bullish; this is obvious because the cycle is just beginning.

• Medium Term (6–12 Months): By this point, the outlook shifts completely to “Bullish,” as format rotations begin, burn events take place, and so on. All of this drives players to want to buy cards from the sets that are active as new in the “Modern” format, since this is the meta. In fact, set prices tend to rise as time passes and the meta solidifies, as the most powerful cards become known and begin to take shape within the meta.

• Long Term (1–3 Years): Here I have two perspectives, and it depends solely on the set’s specific situation; however, it’s generally “highly bullish,” since scarcity causes everyone to want to get their hands on something before it sells out. As I mentioned, the supply of these sets is finite, making them a lower-risk asset with significant potential for appreciation. however, even though the price rises as the edition gets older, the reality is that demand drops as the META evolves. Therefore, holding onto at least these “Packs” for a year and then selling them at a profit is the best option if you’re looking for a good return.

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NOTE: The investment here is crystal clear: these are very low-risk assets, but if we acquire them at the right time and also wait the right amount of time to sell them, it is, in fact, one of the safest ways to earn returns. However, it’s important to keep in mind that things don’t always go as planned—we have the “Chaos Legion” incident as an example—so you must be very careful and always evaluate the supply released by the game against the number of active players in Splinterlands.

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Conclusion

All things considered, investing in Packs is extremely lucrative, but it’s not a get-rich-quick scheme. Furthermore, it’s essential to understand this because the cards are the most valuable asset in the game—without them, there would be no game at all. This is an interesting point to consider, since many people focus on SPS, which isn’t a mistake, but SPS is complemented by the cards; it’s a balance. If you’re going to take a risk, you should do so in both areas.