Why I Think Splinterlands Maxed Out Alpha Summoners Are Undervalued
Full disclaimer from the start! I own all of the Alpha summoners including the legendary Selenia Sky! I have maxed them out a long time ago, probably more than two years now. I don’t have any intention of selling them anytime soon.
This said I still strongly believe that the maxed out alpha summoners are one of the most undervalued cards in the game.
Most of the Splinterlands fans are aware that the price per single card (BCX) drops as the cards get combined more and more. It has been the case for a long time now and it is something that has been accepted from most of the players. It acts as a discount for larger purchase.
Here are some examples.
The Creeping ooze has a price of 1.5 to 2 $ per single card for the highest levels, and for a single card it goes for 10$ each. A X5 difference at least!
The Goblin mech has a 2 $ price for a maxed out card and a 6$ for single card.
The above are common neutral cards.
If we take a look at the Alpha summoners we get this.
A 57$ to 117$ price, or an X2 for Malric Inferno.
Next one of the most wanted alpha summoners, the water one.
A 79$ to 270$ or more than X4, etc.
As mentioned this has been the case for a long time. Why would it change now?
As we know land will be used to craft items from the players and then use those items in battles to further enhance your cards.
The thing is land as most of the Splinterlands assets is capped. There is limited amount of PLOTs, TRACTs (x100 PLOT) and REGIONs (x1000 PLOT). To be able to mine resources from the land you will need to put cards on each plot. The better and stronger the card, the better it mines.
Why would anyone want to put a level one common card on a precious piece of land that has a limited supply?
It’s obvious that everyone will want to put the best miners/cards in their lands to mine resource. What will be the best miners? You can make correlation to collection power that each card gives.
The gold foil will obviously be again at price. From the rarity perspective the alpha cards will also be better miners then beta, or all the other collections that comes after. Summoners will be a better miners then monsters, and legendary cards from everything else.
I might be wrong but I think there is around 500k plots in general, contained in all the types of land, that means there will be a need from a 500k top quality cards. The numbers for gold foil cards are extremely low, and even lower for the alpha edition.
These are all the legendary gold foil alpha cards available for sale.
Only three types of cards! And there is like 25 of each in circulation.
Here are the Alpha summoners regular foil.
Selenia has around 500 in circulation and the rest around 3k. But these are all of the levels. If we take into account only the maxed out the constrain in the supply is massive. I expect once when the land update is live, more cards to be maxed out in order to fill the land with quality miners, that will push the supply of the cards to amazing low numbers.
For example, here is Selenia Sky, alpha edition.
The supply is ridiculously low even now. After the land and the boos that all the maxed out early edition cards will get, and especially the summoners, I can see the supply get constrained further and the bids for the cards go higher. The liquidity for an NFTs can always be an issue in case if you want to sell as well, and having some patience is always welcomed 😊.
If you need some indicator about things going in this direction, take a look at the recent DEC rewards changes, from square to cube. With this change the low leagues, bronze got hit and the higher leagues, where the maxed out cards are needed got more rewards. The market calculated this change immediately with more maxed out cards being sold, the price increased and the price for renting the maxed out cards increased as well.
The introduction of land in theory should achieve the same effect multiplied on a large scale.
At the end I want to make a full disclaimer again as a Splinterlands maxed out Alpha summoner’s owner. I’m biased. I rarely make prediction posts as I know that everything can happen, and it is hard to predict the future.
But in this case, the game theory, the numbers and the experience from similar events are all pointing out to this. Off course by the time land comes out, the market might turn bearish and drag down everything with it. In that case you will just need to hodl and wait for a few more years for the scenario above to play out and the Splinterlands team to deliver as they have till now. I know for sure I will be hodling for many more years to come 😊.
All the best