Fortunetelling... (or modelling) the SPS required for 50 Vouchers
On 18 October 2021, the #Splinterlands Chaos Legion voucher drops will start. To earn vouchers, you need to stake SPS, as described in the official post. Numerous other blog posts have clarified and explained this further.
Fifty pre-sale vouchers would entitle you to receive at least one regular foil Promo card.
So I asked myself how much SPS I would need to have staked to receive 50 vouchers.
The Online Pre-Sale Voucher Calculator
#Splintercards released a convenient tool to help you estimate the number of vouchers you can expect to receive, based upon the amount of SPS you have staked.
You type in the number of SPS that you have staked and click on "Check" to receive your estimate based on the current total staked SPS at the time of the calculation.
This is very helpful information. It even tells me how much US$ I need to squirrel away if I want to buy card packs with all my vouchers (or probably buy SPS to buy card packs and realise the discount).
The Fundamental Problem
To increase the number of vouchers I receive, I am staking more of my airdropped SPS, thus also increasing the total pool of staked SPS...
I have no proof, but I'm making the WILD assumption that I'm not the only person doing this... Since the total number of daily vouchers being dropped remains constant at 33,333, this means that the projected number of pre-sale vouchers I will receive is getting fewer and fewer each day.
The basic solution to the calculation problem was pretty simple. I built a spreadsheet that replicates the basic calculation for each day in the next six weeks (or so) until the end of the voucher drop. This allows me to forecast (or predict or assume or guess) the rate at which the total staked SPS will grow.
The increase rates shown in the snippet below have been back-calculated from the actual total SPS staked.
The next step was easy - calculating the amount of airdropped SPS I will receive each day as a function of the DEC in my account, the single plot I own and any packs I purchase with my vouchers. The difficult bit is estimating how much of that DEC I will NEED to spend on some card I "have to have". I guess my win/loss ratio will drive that...
A logical step was to allow the choice to stake between 0 and 100% of the airdropped SPS while converting the remainder to DEC (thus allowing it to increase the amount of airdropped SPS). This requires assumed daily change rates for SPS/HIVE and HIVE/DEC. I was surprised at the optimum split percentage (based on the current exchange rates)!
The final step was using Goal Seek to determine the additional investment required if I want the total vouchers (card packs) to be equal to 50.
To say I was a bit shocked at the additional investment required is an understatement. My husband also looked ready to start watching some of my true-crime shows for hints...
Given my current staked balance, this comes to a total of 6,941 SPS (excluding the daily SPS I calculate staking). Based on today's total staked SPS, the Splintercards calculator estimates 5,200 SPS for 50 packs.
Clearly modelling (or guessing) the rate at which people stake SPS will be key to estimating the real number of vouchers each of us can expect. The current rate is probably higher than the average we will see over the six-week period, but the question is by how much.
I look forward to your comments and thoughts.
Also, since this is the Internet, I should note the following:
- My husband will not really murder me (I think)
- I will not really sell one of his kidneys for a really good card (or SPS or vouchers)
- I am not really a nerd
Play Splinterlands by using my referral link: Doomedbengal's Splinterlands