More Splinterlands Land Math
I don't think I am unique in applying 'math' to online games, perhaps my secret is that I play around longer with what kind of math might apply to a 'game' as if it were a 'math problem'. It turns out if you work a problem like this enough, you just might make some decent amount of tokens.
I made a perhaps bold prediction that common land could fall to $5 dollars. I want to do some more math on this, and mention the updates that the SL team have published to the land whitepaper.
So I am going to basically ignore the boost to castles (gaining 1 tract's worth of keep income), and the whole castles/keeps EV as part of the upcoming calculations, but that actually will compound my conclusions below, which TL;DR is that 99%+ of a region's value is contained in relatively few plots within the region.
We got some probabalistic guarantees about drop rate minimums as long as you are surveying 100 PLOTs at a time, so these observations are pertinent for both TRACT and REGION holders.
Let's cross these tables into a probability matrix, using the guaranteed minimums, to get the PLOT quality Expected value (EV) for each TRACT:
|EV(100Plots)||Natural (85%)||Magical (12%)||Occupied (3%)|
This all would be x10 for a region, meaning that ~637.5 Common natural plots and 170 Rare Natural Plots gives us around 800 Plots that we can call 'not of much interest'.
Even the 34 Epic Natural plots, with their all around bonus of 40%, seems less interesting than the 90 Common Magical plots which give a 100% bonus to researching the magical secrets of Praetoria only.
Lets do a bonus cross, remember Magical give bonus to Research only, and Occupied give bonus to SPS Mining only.
|TotalBonus||Natural (+0%)||Magical (+100%)||Occupied (+100%)|
So we can see that the real bonuses are a set of anything magical, anything occupied, and anything legendary'. The total of these three categories from the EV table above is just 158,5 PLOTs for a region. (To this we of course add the 10 castle/keep spaces for a total of 168.5 PLOTs that are worth our time)
That's where I would focus all my effort.
When you analyze the PP system, it is clear that singles don't matter, you need max cards. How many MAX alpha cards do people have? 50? 100? sure there may be a guy or two with 1000, so he has 200 plots covered, but I think most all people, even within the region holder subset, will be out of max alpha (and even max beta) within 50-100 plots or less (250-500 MAX cards). 'A full set' does not go very far.
Untamed give a nice x2 boost, but from here the points fall way off.
Even 5 max Harklaw is just 7500 PP. Compare that to top 5 card teams with 50k, 80k, even as much as 130,000 PP and more.
My 130k PP team is going on my Magical Legendary Plot and hosting my Legendary totem and getting +300% to research the secrets of Praetoria - for 520k PP.
Is it even worth filling out common natural plots with max Harklaws (when stake DEC needs scale linearly), when you need to fill out 69 plots just to equal the production of that single plot (that I didn't even put a Runi on).
To me, its going to be way easier for Region holders to get peasant workers (scholars) to work these plots. They might even pay them to do it (such as a 50% rebate of the taxes they collect).
Let's simplify to the 80/20 rule. Here is my declaration:
20% of the PLOTS in a tract/region contain 99% of the value
(Note: if we use 69x as in my example above its only 98.6% of the value, which is why I think rounding up to 20% from 16.85% is approprate).
If a Plot is prices at $120 dollars, a tract is worth 12k and a region is worth 120k usd. 1% of a tract/regions value is thus contained in 80/800 plots, giving a market adjusted value of $1.50 to the common plots.
I'm not saying common plots won't be worthwhile to work. I am absolutely sure they will be. Just not so much if you have access to better ones.
The rewards earned on this comment will go directly to the people( @ibbtammy ) sharing the post on Twitter as long as they are registered with @poshtoken. Sign up at https://hiveposh.com.
I'm with you. The one line I paid special attention to (and that I think everyone needs to pay special attention to) in the whitepaper is the line that says (paraphrasing): Everything is subject to change as the team deems necessary. I wrote in my initial post the day after the whitepaper came out that it's my belief these numbers will change with all the numbers being constricted downwards. Instead of going from 1000 (Chaos RF Common) to 100,000 (Alpha GF Legendary), everything is going to get squeezed down by maybe up to 50%. It will probably be more a sliding scale.
I'm all for giving value to the older cards, but as you say, the numbers will be such that only a few plots are going to get a very large share of the pie. That said, there are still a LOT of variables we don't know such as how many different resources will be in the game, what spells will do, how crafting of spells/cards will work, etc. If there are 20 different kinds of resources to mine/farm, plus arenas, plus other buildings, plus maybe services like transporting goods, that means that those few plots that can get massive production numbers will still be split among a lot of different functions, thus splitting the pie. There are still a LOT of ways to give the common plots more value than it seems like they have right now.
For example, what if they implement a way to upgrade those plots? Maybe grow the common bonus from 0% bonus to 50% over time. That would allow people to get in cheap and still ultimately build plots that could compete. The Epic and Legendary would obviously still be better and would get a big head start, but eventually the smaller ones could close the gap.
Also, once Untamed goes out of Modern after Rebellion hits, it sounds like they're planning on increasing the bonus for those cards. So maybe Alpha stays at 10x, Beta goes to 6x, and Untamed goes to 3 or 4x. That would be another way for the "old" cards to have more value but it would also allow newer players to again, close the gap.
Those are just a couple examples off the top of my head. I'm sure there are plenty more where those came from.
So, in the immortal words of Jimmy V, "Don't give up. Don't ever give up." :-)
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Alpha GFLs are only 25k PP, but I think you do make a good point. Talking to a few other people I have some new views about how I am interpreting this math, part 3 to come soon!
How are they only 25k? A Chaos GFL is 10k and Alpha is 10x Chaos cards.
Chaos gold foil legendary is 2500 PP
Edit no wait you are right
Yeah, the 2500 is a single BCX. I was talking about maxed.
Hey hello, I don't know much about Splinterlands, but these calculations seem to be useful for many users.
Thank you so much for sponsoring our show. We'd love to have you on the show someday 😊👍.
I believe there actually might be some interesting opportunities with common land plots, when people focus so much on the more "profitable" plots at first. Depending on how low the value of common plots drops, I will probably load up a few and throw some workers at them. !1UP
I think you likely very right!
There could be a blood on the streets scenario where whales dump their low value Plots. It will be a great time for long term speculators.
You have received a 1UP from @flauwy!
@monster-curator, @oneup-curator, @leo-curator, @ctp-curator, @pimp-curator, @thg-curator, @vyb-curator, @pob-curator, @neoxag-curator
And they will bring !PIZZA 🍕.
Learn more about our delegation service to earn daily rewards. Join the Cartel on Discord.
$PIZZA slices delivered:
@vimukthi(1/5) tipped @flauwy (x1)
curation-cartel tipped ecoinstant (x1)
This sounds right but honestly I wish each plot was going for $1,200 again like in the bull run lol
That being said starting land 1.5 a lot is going to change in terms of math with buildings and investments into the land. Going to be interesting trying to price those and filter them on the market.