Is SPS dead?
First of all, I want to say that this post was written by SDelta in Splinterlands discord channel. I have SDelta's consent since he has no intention of sharing it as a block and said feel free to use it as you want and share it. Since I found the information here valuable and it will be a waste to left it in the discord channel. Thank you SDelta and I present you his work.
I feel like we need to speak supply and demand here for a second.
I want to stress that this picture is not a price indication. Markets are not predictable, it´s about a general sentiment towards a price trend and momentum. While this is not predicable as well, it´s derivable where momentum and trend moves when looking at the supply and demand
Market phase - Green & Red line
SPS started during a bull market which ended roughly in november, maybe late december. At that point it was clear to smart money that interest rates will increase.
News Situation - purple & pink line
purple represents times where SPS had a lot of news coverage and development
Turning points - Grey & Black line
the grey line represents SPS voting/riftwatcher (time may vary) while the black line represents the end of the airdrop. It is crucial to understand that before any of these lines is hit we are in a sellers sentiment, especially during a bear market. Volume is low and a few amount of people make the market by throwing their airdrops out at any price. Buyers only give limited support at key levels like 0.10 for the past weeks
until the grey line is hit (or majorly announced) and we are not going out of the bear market we can expect a strong sellers mark with high resistance at .10 and .5 - time to wait or accumulate
between gray and black (SPS voting to end of airdrop) we probably still have a sellers sentiment but the resistance of the buyers will rise, considering we are holding .10 without the demand the gray line will bring it is hard to imagine that we fall below 0.10 ever again after the grey line (if we are not seeing external factors fucking everything up). Probably even a bear market might not stop a rise here
The black line marks the turning point into a buyers market.
so to summarize:
We know that supply is very high until the black line. We know that demand for SPS is very low until the grey line
we do not know how splinterlands will develop itself and how the overall market will develop (red & green + pink & purple)
what you might see as "dead" is in reality just a very small percentage of sellers with a constant token supply.
imagine SPS as a baby currently being born. We had the first ultrasound during the spikes in the last bull market, now we see the first throes at the grey line but we won´t see birth until the black line
and you are already calling it dead, before even seeing it´s face.
It´s also a bit missleading to look at price for SPS, as we see over 1M new token being minted every day:
If you look at the market cap of SPS calculated in Bitcoin (as a benchmark) you see that SPS has hold it´s value pretty much since the start of the year.
From our high in Nov we have only lost 48% compared to BTC which has lost 55%
Edit: the data I used here is provided by coinmarketcap and might be wrong, I´m not going to spend time to check that