Straight Line to the Chaos Legion Presale Start

The most anticipated event of the fall, at least where Splinterlands is concerned, is approaching fast.

This morning I've woke up to this announcement on Splinterlands discord:

I've checked it, and yup, we have a countdown timer:

Less than 10 days till the Chaos Legion Presale begins. Like we need a countdown to build up the FOMO for this one, right? :-)

Believe me or not, I still don't know what strategy to take on this presale.

For example, if you look at the screenshot below, what do you understand from it?

That there are 125m staked SPS, and potentially another 114m SPS which can be staked at the last minute, which are currently liquid? Sure, not all of them will be staked, some will remain in liquidity pools to maintain liquidity no matter what. Probably the SPS Foundation holds will do just that, but that's a small portion compared to the rest, if I read the distribution of SPS chart correctly from the whitepaper. Plus, we don't know how venture capitalists will play this and if they'll stake their share or not (if they didn't already).

I can't speculate on how high the staked amount of SPS could really go. For my own calculations, I used 140m SPS staked. This amount could be dwarfed by what will really happen though. Can you imagine what the numbers will look like if another 100m+ SPS will be staked in the remaining time?

At 140m SPS staked, and considering the dynamic of my daily airdrop and stake rewards, I could be looking at something like a little over 300 vouchers at the end of the voucher distribution (not at the end of the presale).

For those who will receive fractions of vouchers or a few at most, 300 may sound like a lot. And it is.

But before the rules of the presale were released I hoped to get at least 1000 (I was actually prepared for 2000). After I saw the rules and made some calculations, I realized that wasn't going to be possible.

Then I downgraded my expectations to a lower target: 500 packs. Still has a pack bonus of 15%, right?

But it looks I'll be landing pretty far from that target. Would the extra 5% packs bonus and the extra chances for the airdrop justify the price of buying almost 200 vouchers? I guess it depends on the price, but I'm leaning more towards no, understanding there will be FOMO for them.

Just a few thoughts that cross my mind. But otherwise I'm excited for the new set and curious to see what changes it will bring to the gameplay and the economy.

By the way, I tried to publish this via both Splintertalk and 1Up interfaces. At the time when I tried, they were both unreachable. They are both outposts, but CTPTalk worked, for example. The issue might be related to the earlier API node problems Hive Engine experienced, but I'm guessing here.

So here I am back to an old friend - PeakD.