Bears everywhere!

Intro

Hello Boys and Garlics! This is my nft earn2play post. About my favoured games on hive blockchain. About their trends, bulls and bears. I will tell you some from my research and deep diving. But keep in your mind - this is not financial advice! Whole content is just my humble opinion and point of view. Im just simple guy like you. OG gamer and big fan of farming 👨‍🌾🌈

NFT bearmarket?

Data analysis and some metrics says: nft transactions falling over 90% compared to same month last year. So, technicaly - yes. We have bearmarket on NFT market. Good thing is - bearmarket will test every project. Only persistance and sustainable tokenomic development will prove if NFT game die or survive. No wonder, when during bullmarket are NFT earn2play projects appearing like mushrooms after rain. But again - no surprise, when you realised your neck is broken if you jump into something based only on devs promises and marketing. I thing correction isnt over yet - S&P500, Nasdaq, Crypto and whole stockmarket probably fall deeper this year. But...If you want step into something - making it in bearmarket is the safest way. Without exceptions for cryptogames. If you thinking about it now, be prepared. Your time is comming.

dCrops X splinterlands

I will try to compared situation and trends in my two favoured cryptogames. Question is, if dCrops is in bearmarket? I dont think so- playerbase is stil slowly rising and gameassets value moving +-30% around median value in hive, since alphapacks was soldout. Thats not bad - probably its coused by low volatility, small playerbase and extremely fair reward system and clear game develompent politics. No extreme hype, fomo and pumps associated with extreme fear and dumps. Long story short - game developer making his job rly good. Fully focusing on sustainable development and improving his codes. That is main reason, why OG's and big asset holders will not let vallue freefall. I really like it and recomendet this game to lots of my nocoiner friends, becouse (dCrops isnt extreemely fun - ok, thats true, but...) its give to users great possibility to teach, how crypto works. Loging with cryptowallets, aproving transactions, swaping coins, buying nft assets or listing them on market, claiming rewards. Its really cool for people without crypto experience.

Otherwise in Splinterlands is situation unfortunatly different. Who comes into game in last 6 months is probably in 40-65% loss. Enviroment is extremely unfriendly for new players and game economy slowly kills botfarms. Over 80% of daily active users are botaccounts, which drains rewardpools and abusing matchmaking. Second problem is the new Chaos legion edition, which was designed for total player base (with bots counted). So market was floodet with priceless cards which no one needs - becouse surprise! Bots dont needs any cards to own for ranking and claiming rewards. If you will look on card marketcap, you will see same total value like in 09/2021. But in this time wasnt Chaos legion cards and new set of reward cards in circulation. For example my card portfolio had value over 21k$ in peak, i was opened around 200 CL packs - that means +1000 cards and colected over 1000 reward cards from that time. 21k$ card portfolio +2000 cards and today total value of my collection is 7k$. You can see there going every asset from extreme to extreme... their governance token, vouchers, lands, inside cryptocurrency DEC, cards, packs. You can buy now CL packs from official shop for 4$/pack

(which are eligible for airdrop - you are getting at least 1 legendary card for every 575 packs purchased, which are valued 9-16$/each few days after airdrop)

Or in secondary market for 2.68$. This diference dont looks good, becouse in shop is still 6,5milions packs for sale and if you opened pack now, you will lose next 90% of their value. Legendary cards which have 1.8% drop chance are traded between 3-14$/each and others lower rarity cards are priceless. Next card value dump assumption is at the end of SPS airdrop, becouse cards lost their assetpower eligible for governance token airdrop. Unfortunatly instaed of solving problems for better gaming experience and new user adoption you can heard from devs just hype around his new products and useless things. If its not bearmarket on splinterlands, we can call it spiral od death. Huge number of bot accounts in bronze/silver league, almost whole rental market working based on renting cards for bots, overprinted new cards which are better or compared to old edition limited cards, card inflation... From total 306k accouts have 90% accounts valuation between 0-100$. Mosd of them are probably bot accounts which are slowly killing the game like rat poison. That is the reason, why playing splinterlands lose my attention now.

dCrops have advantage +hopium for alpha asset holders

Yes! It have! Becouse game design is pretty simple and no one needs to abusing game mechanics. Probably we didnt see there botfarm owners arms race and slowly, but sustainable rising playerbase and asset value. We have beta edition behind the corner, with buildings, materials and production promise and we will see great stuff in the future. And some data and hopium last to all. Its from 12.4.2022 but its still fresh if you compared it with actual data from #open room on dCrops discord.

It was opened 34.164 packs, 5.000 packs hold developer team for promotions and contest purpose and 10.836 packs are in circulation (in players holding or on hive-engine market)

In circulation are:

2804x awesome land
2889x potatoe
2897x tomato
2796x beetroot
2873x onion

537x hi-tech land
531x strawberry
541x blueberry
528x rapsberry
579x bellpepper

That means, if you pulled some epic or legendary stuff from packs or buy it cheap on market, you are lucky guy. Becouse those cards arent much in circulation.

And what do you think about earn2play games, bots and idle earnings, colapsing game tokenomics and which nft games are your favoured? Let me know in comments ✌️