Market Observations and My Recent Splinterlands Card Buys
"If It's Old or Gold, It's Sold"
That was the title of a post I wrote in the middle of last year's ramp up. The article was basically pointing out that rarity and high CP was all being bought up faster than anything else.
Today though it's quite the opposite. Old and gold is sitting unloved while the new cheap but powerful cards are selling. Not selling fast enough to keep up with new incoming supply but definitely the super majority of cards being bought right now.
If you watch the card market, you'll see that the average price of sales has plummeted to under $1 average per card. While part of this is because every card has dropped in value, if you watch the cards that are selling its mainly all Chaos Legion and the new reward cards. These are much cheaper cards due to their abundance and the fact that they are still being minted daily,
The player's market
You can't rent these new cards out for much. They aren't valuable because there's so many of them. They don't add much CP to your deck. The only reason to own them is to play them. In other words, the current secondary market buyers are players, not investors.
Meanwhile CP is being rented instead of purchased. As I write this 1800 of my cards are rented out and as I look through them I'd estimate 80% are rented to bots and only 1 out of every 10 cards has been played by the current renter. It's all being rented just for CP.
It will be interesting to see if rentals continue when the new modes come out and only half the CP will be needed.
Buying opportunities or a suckers game?
With investors avoiding buying old and gold cards from the secondary market, some great deals can be found and I'm scoping a few up still.
Sadly, I don't think they are going to pay off for quite some time. In February the old and gold market as well as DEC and SPS were starting to see some life. But with land being very quietly put on the back-burner again, it seems the market has sniffed it out and the sell off has renewed. We are now at an all time low in SPS and a longtime low in DEC.
(You can see the 60% price increase in February that has since been given all back and then some.)
Dec was .004 two weeks ago and today its at .0025. I sold about half a million DEC a 10 days ago as I realized they were getting pretty tight lipped about land and that would send it crashing. It was hard to sell at that price when I see DEC as worth .01 cent but it was clearly the right move as its down another 40% in that time even as crypto has stabilized and is heading higher.
Along with DEC and SPS the old/gold card market floor was thinning fast last month and ready to explode higher. In many cards as soon as a few liquidating sellers ran out of inventory, there were huge price gaps above them so we would have seen a bunch of exciting price pops all at once. I thought that would coincide with land heating up and spark the next rally. Now though the floor is rapidly thickening and the gaps are filling in. Many new names are popping up in the sellers list for these cards as well. I'm seeing some big names putting serious inventory on the market now to sell.
The game needs land to absorb CP and the market knows it and is responding harshly to this delay.
In last week's AMA a question was asked about what cards would be needed to run land and while the answer was that it's undecided still, they did anticipate it was going to take A LOT of cards and most people wouldn't have enough. This was probably the best answer they could have given. Splinterlands desperately needs to soak up a lot of this inventory they've sold to fund development. If they can do it with land, we will see the next bull leg make the last one look silly.
After reading the AMA I had a conversation with a team member in the comments - who for the record claims we'll get some type of limited release in 2022 - that caused me to question whether we will get anything meaningful before 2024.
They seem to have just a few people on land while most of the devs are on smaller projects for fear that people will lose interest if they don't always have something new. The claim - which we've heard before - is once these other projects are done we'll see a renewed, concentrated effort on land but I don't see why that would happen if they really feel like they always need a bunch of smaller things going on to keep people playing. Won't the next set of small projects take precedence again?
But after banging my head against the wall over this team's decisions for the past six months, I'm not sure why I'm surprised that they think players are more interested in the SPS validator than the land expansion.
--Note-Since I wrote those last few lines the new AMA came out. They confirmed that they have no date for land but right now it looks like a very limited phase one will come after the rework of the rewards pools, the new wild mode, the SPS validator, and the release of Rift Watchers. Rift Watchers is set for the 3rd quarter. This means best case scenario we get the land market place, the map of Praetoria, and the reveal of what type and rarity our plots are by the very end of the year. Then phase 2 - where the actual functionality of the land starts - would come sometime probably middle to late 2023.
They also announced that they want Splinterlands to have its own in game Defi so I'm sure that will need to be done first also. They love that shit.
Anyway, there are a few bright spots.
The new 25% higher DEC rewards went into effect yesterday and I'm watching closely to see what kind of effect this is gong to have on rental prices.
That does bring us to our next bright spot before I get into what I've been buying.
After 4 straight months of declining active accounts, the past month has entered back into an uptrend. We're now averaging 400k accounts again whereas we got down to under 350k for a bit. Still down from the highs back in October which were closer to 500k but I'm glad to see we're not just wilting anymore.
Unfortunately we're going to need a lot more than 400k players to take us out of this slump if we don't have land to sop up CP.
So, what have I been buying?
Dirt cheap old and golds of course.
As I said before, its looking like its going to take a while for these to pay off but some of these cards have just been far too cheap for me to not grab.
Any Gold Foil Rares from DICE or before at below $20 have been buys for me. This mainly means I've been picking up more gold Dark Ferryman and Temple Priests. I'm actually up to 58 Gold Ferryman cards now. At 2000 CP each this is adding 114k SPS airdrop points to my stack and I'm renting them out for for around 15 dec per day if you average in end of season ramps. So 58 Ferryman is about 870 DEC per day or 26,100 per month. If I just hold that DEC until it runs to .01 again, that means 58 Ferryman are bring in about $261 per month. If I use todays DEC valuation though that becomes a much lower $67 per month. Still not bad since I do expect them to double in value over the next 12-18 months.
Of course these aren't the great buys they once were because now the market is also saturated with the New gold Epic cards which are selling for $15 and have 2500 CP. Plus they are stronger cards to play and this is a players market. But I like the old gold rares so I'm buying those. I will always side with the lowest mint.
I'm also still collecting those Furious Chickens when the prices drop toward $20. They are actually pretty low today but I'm holding off because I just spent quite a bit on a few other cards and I don't want to spend my DEC at this price.
So far in 2022 I've increased my chickens from 53 to 90. The chicken is still the most useful card in the game and there are currently 27,435 (and shrinking) in circulation at various levels with 400k active accounts. If eSports leagues ever get off the ground, every one of those player will need use of a chicken every day. I certainly don't mind buying a few more if prices drop below $20 again but I'll probably sell a few off if we get back up to $39 like we did in February since y'all keep panic selling chickens and probably will again.
In the mean time I rent these out for about 7 Dec per day if I average it all out. That's about 630 DEC per day or almost 19k per month. At current prices that's about $54 per month or if I hold til .01 cent its $190 per month.
I've also been picking up some of the 10,000 CP gold epics. I grabbed a Frozen Torhilo for $140 (you can get one now for $130) and a Lunakari Mistress for $118 which are now $149.
These 10k CP gold epics usually pull in about 1750 Dec per month each and will eventually triple in value or more. At their peak they were $600 cards. They both only have about 500 in circulation which is really different from the 10's of thousands of prints the new cards of that rarity will have. If Dec runs back to .01 that means $17 per month on cards that are currently selling for between $100 and $150. Plus I get the airdrop points.
While I grabbed a few more cards, the last one I'm going to talk about what one I grabbed as soon as I saw it.
A Beta Gold Epic Serpent Of The Flame. This popped up on the market for just $300. I'd been eyeing the one for $495 for a bit so when this one came up I had to have it. On an average day I can rent this for 90 DEC and that can go up to 500 for end of season. So this card brings in around 3400 DEC per month and with 15,000 CP and only 129 of them circulating, when they come back into favor, the prices can move on them very quickly.
(My Small But Mighty Beta Epic Gold Collection Is Growing)
There's a Gold Alpha version of the Serpent of The Flame card up for $1500 I'm very tempted on but I'm going to pass. I need to scale back my purchases. There are just too many things vying for my limited funds right now.
And that's it. Are you picking up anything old or gold or are you scooping up Chaos Legion cards to compete at a higher level right now?
(Its nice to see this flirting with 10k Dec again! Thanks Bots!)
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Notice many "new users" on Hive? Not many, like this place is a disease. No outside communities bringing in new comers. No other sites having many links or no links to any articles from Hive on sites that show professional interests they view as noteworthy to a profession or hobby. Hive articeles are rare on reddit.com. Wouldnt people post on reddit.com with links to their articles attracting their own new following and groups? No crypto forums acknowledge Hive exists as a place to be either. Ever seen a person asking for support show a way to give support with HIVE listed as a supporting wallet address? Is there a world address on Hive for countries made more unfortunate because of Hive? Would a large Hive holder or large earner of Hive donate a LARGE amount of Hive to help support Ukraine? What? Support something thing that could attract unwanted media attention? Nothing to see here......I dont get out much though.
People are hiding exposure to Hive. People either play dumb, could be scared or intimidated, mislead or dont beilieve it. Maybe just not electronically cultured enough to know. Who knows. Its mostly fake with fake attention paid for by people with ill intentions as many do gloating in their own groups special mindset. Such a small town here to support this kind of high pay. Who is buying Hive tokens with no notable new user base coming in? People trying to buy this place as a grooming ground on the sly. Articles that arent in the interests of their own goals and views dont get much attention. I dont see many high paid articles I would put on a real news sites or link to as noteworthy. Be part of one of their groups and they groom you. They buy comment and article writers in ways that keep their lies hidden. Here to take our FREEDOMS completely in treason as the sacks of shit they are.
Most interest groups and businesses have discord rooms on the side because they wont talk here or more able to teach views there to shill out of public view. They can do odd stuff to you in discord rooms they cant do here. I’ve seen people get mugged and shaken down in discords, be careful while visiting new discords, even if they are a business. They shut down the discord room along with all of the evidence of their crimes the group around @fyrstikken and his discord server @steemspeak. They also hide behind skirts there while on the creep like they do in the new ones they are in.
The operators doing V2K with remote neural monitoring want me to believe this lady @battleaxe is an operator. She is involved in the same discord groups around @fyrstikken and friends. Her discord is Battleaxe#1003. Shes in some groups with seemingly detached characters that dont even acknowledge the others in the group, looking oddly staged. She starts projects and does nothing with it or the delegations after its used to sway people. Like @steempowertwins does<------fake along with her @teamgood <------fake. No substance in her comments and has a following that adores her for what? Life coach she is not nor is she insightful with any meaningful skills to follow. Ruler of pixie dust maybe? I would like for someone to show me but probably wont out fear maybe? @fyrstikken groups around him down voted me into censored and not viewable on my accounts as soon I told what they were doing.
I cant prove @battleaxe is the one directly doing the V2K and RNM. Doing it requires more than one person at the least. It cant be done alone. She cant prove she is not one of the ones doing V2K because she cant and could care less. I guarantee she knows this is going around and still wont prove it because she cant. Many of us here can prove what they have been doing to survive the past 5 years. What does she live off of? It definitely isnt in public view here.
I was drugged in my home covertly, it ended badly. They have been trying to kill me using RNM with applied V2K mental games while revealing as many accessories to the crime as they can. I bet nobody does anything at all. Ask @battleaxe to prove it. I bet she wont. Pretty serious accusations to just blow off and leave the crypto community hanging in fear of this danger.
They want me to believe the V2K and RNM in me is being broadcast from her location. And what the fuck is "HOMELAND SECURITY" doing about this shit? I think stumbling over their own dicks maybe? Just like they did and are doing with the Havana Syndrome. They should start by looking at the communications between the top witnesses of Hive and the connection to @fyrstikken groups. Google his fucking name and see where his other interests lie around at least once maybe? The connections between @fyrstikken groups and all the exchanges built for Hive? Bet that would reveal some crazy ball less nutty shit. Homeland security should start preparing for their own incarcerations seeing how sloppy this was done. Patriot act my ass. Think we are really fools? Bad position your not getting out of. Dont be last to blow the whistle. Who will protect you?
People in and around @fyrstikkens groups are reckless and should have shown the proper media what they had before taking me hostage for 5 long torturing years and counting. That is a long time to wait for someone to die.
What would you say while having a gun pointed at your head from an undisclosed location? Have people find it? My hands are tied while they play like children with a gun to my head. Its a terrorist act on American soil while some yawn and say its not real or Im a mental case. Many know its real. This is an ignored detrimental to humanity domestic threat. Ask informed soldiers in the American military what their oath is and why nothing is being done. Nobody has I guess. Maybe someone told ill informed soldiers they cant protect America from military leaders in control that have ill intent. How do we protect locked up soldiers prevented from telling the truth from being treated as criminals? Not to mention civilians we let our leaders treat the same way. https://ecency.com/fyrstikken/@fairandbalanced/i-am-the-only-motherfucker-on-the-internet-pointing-to-a-direct-source-for-voice-to-skull-electronic-terrorism-terrorism
Notice many "new users" on Hive? Not many, like this place is a disease. No outside communities bringing in new comers. No other sites having many links or no links to any articles from Hive on sites that show professional interests they view as noteworthy to a profession or hobby. Hive articeles are rare on reddit.com. Wouldnt people post on reddit.com with links to their articles attracting their own new following and groups? No crypto forums acknowledge Hive exists as a place to be either. Ever seen a person asking for support show a way to give support with HIVE listed as a supporting wallet address? Is there a world address on Hive for countries made more unfortunate because of Hive? Would a large Hive holder or large earner of Hive donate a LARGE amount of Hive to help support Ukraine? What? Support something thing that could attract unwanted media attention? Nothing to see here......I dont get out much though.
People are hiding exposure to Hive. People either play dumb, could be scared or intimidated, mislead or dont beilieve it. Maybe just not electronically cultured enough to know. Who knows. Its mostly fake with fake attention paid for by people with ill intentions as many do gloating in their own groups special mindset. Such a small town here to support this kind of high pay. Who is buying Hive tokens with no notable new user base coming in? People trying to buy this place as a grooming ground on the sly. Articles that arent in the interests of their own goals and views dont get much attention. I dont see many high paid articles I would put on a real news sites or link to as noteworthy. Be part of one of their groups and they groom you. They buy comment and article writers in ways that keep their lies hidden. Here to take our FREEDOMS completely in treason as the sacks of shit they are.
Most interest groups and businesses have discord rooms on the side because they wont talk here or more able to teach views there to shill out of public view. They can do odd stuff to you in discord rooms they cant do here. I’ve seen people get mugged and shaken down in discords, be careful while visiting new discords, even if they are a business. They shut down the discord room along with all of the evidence of their crimes the group around @fyrstikken and his discord server @steemspeak. They also hide behind skirts there while on the creep like they do in the new ones they are in.
The operators doing V2K with remote neural monitoring want me to believe this lady @battleaxe is an operator. She is involved in the same discord groups around @fyrstikken and friends. Her discord is Battleaxe#1003. Shes in some groups with seemingly detached characters that dont even acknowledge the others in the group, looking oddly staged. She starts projects and does nothing with it or the delegations after its used to sway people. Like @steempowertwins does<------fake along with her @teamgood <------fake. No substance in her comments and has a following that adores her for what? Life coach she is not nor is she insightful with any meaningful skills to follow. Ruler of pixie dust maybe? I would like for someone to show me but probably wont out fear maybe? @fyrstikken groups around him down voted me into censored and not viewable on my accounts as soon I told what they were doing.
I cant prove @battleaxe is the one directly doing the V2K and RNM. Doing it requires more than one person at the least. It cant be done alone. She cant prove she is not one of the ones doing V2K because she cant and could care less. I guarantee she knows this is going around and still wont prove it because she cant. Many of us here can prove what they have been doing to survive the past 5 years. What does she live off of? It definitely isnt in public view here.
I was drugged in my home covertly, it ended badly. They have been trying to kill me using RNM with applied V2K mental games while revealing as many accessories to the crime as they can. I bet nobody does anything at all. Ask @battleaxe to prove it. I bet she wont. Pretty serious accusations to just blow off and leave the crypto community hanging in fear of this danger.
They want me to believe the V2K and RNM in me is being broadcast from her location. And what the fuck is "HOMELAND SECURITY" doing about this shit? I think stumbling over their own dicks maybe? Just like they did and are doing with the Havana Syndrome. They should start by looking at the communications between the top witnesses of Hive and the connection to @fyrstikken groups. Google his fucking name and see where his other interests lie around at least once maybe? The connections between @fyrstikken groups and all the exchanges built for Hive? Bet that would reveal some crazy ball less nutty shit. Homeland security should start preparing for their own incarcerations seeing how sloppy this was done. Patriot act my ass. Think we are really fools? Bad position your not getting out of. Dont be last to blow the whistle. Who will protect you?
People in and around @fyrstikkens groups are reckless and should have shown the proper media what they had before taking me hostage for 5 long torturing years and counting. That is a long time to wait for someone to die.
What would you say while having a gun pointed at your head from an undisclosed location? Have people find it? My hands are tied while they play like children with a gun to my head. Its a terrorist act on American soil while some yawn and say its not real or Im a mental case. Many know its real. This is an ignored detrimental to humanity domestic threat. Ask informed soldiers in the American military what their oath is and why nothing is being done. Nobody has I guess. Maybe someone told ill informed soldiers they cant protect America from military leaders in control that have ill intent. How do we protect locked up soldiers prevented from telling the truth from being treated as criminals? Not to mention civilians we let our leaders treat the same way. https://ecency.com/fyrstikken/@fairandbalanced/i-am-the-only-motherfucker-on-the-internet-pointing-to-a-direct-source-for-voice-to-skull-electronic-terrorism-terrorism
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BEER.I've seen estimations that there are anywhere between 30k and 90k actual active players. This would be really good news, as it would mean that to really increase card demand, we don't need millions of newcomers.. but "only" a few hundred thousand.
Of course, land will also definitely let some cards even double or triple in value - personally I expect summoners and reward legendaries to shoot up; especially if the assumptions regarding summoners being crucial and CP being somewhat tied to productivity prove to be true.
I am so jealous of the numbers you're showing haha - I would be happy to see 10k rentals at the end of the season even 😂
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30k-60k actual players make a lot of sense to me. I've been told that some players claim to be running over 10k bots. Also, during the ramp up last year I talked to people who said to be in their guild you needed to be running a minimum of 10 bots.
So if every new players brings an average of 10 new bots we don't need many new players at all !LOL
I'm curious whats going to happen when they split the player formats and require half the CP for modern. I'm wondering if older players with more full decks will create a second accounts so we'll see a spike but of the same players. Part of me believes that the new cards are so much more powerful than the older ones though that both leagues are just going to be full of new cards anyway and the old cards will just be used to pad CP in wild but will just be needed for fewer accounts. Seems like it could go a lot of ways.
I think you're right about summoners and these dirt cheap reward legendaries. Of course they are dirt cheap because there are so many of them and we aren't even 1/3rd of the way through the mint but at under $3 they are starting to look good. I'm thinking some of the beta summoners for under $20 are starting to look pretty interesting too. No one plays Lyanna Natura for instance so she's $10 but she might be great for Earth based land plots. Also Malric.
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That is a serious collection you have. Well done accumulating.
Thanks. I got in a year ago but really started buying heavy during the ramp up in July and August. Can't play at a very high level with it but it rents well 😀
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