Splinterlands by the Numbers-Rentals, Sales, Tokens, New Players

Thanks for checking out another installment of:

"What The Heck is Going on in Splinterlands-By The Numbers"

Since I look at these charts and try to assess them daily and spend a lot of time in the markets I figured I'd just make this a normal thing.

It seems like a lot has changed since yesterday while a lot has stayed the same since it has just been a day after all. Let's take a look.

So first, the chart that just doesn't stop. Active accounts have been on a conveyor belt straight up for months hitting 213K active accounts yesterday. Just an insane amount of growth. But unfortunately, it doesn't seem to be leading to much else as we'll see on these next charts.

This chart shows the total value of all the cards in splinterlands. As you can see, for a while it did nothing but go up but over the last 5 days it's completely leveled out. Part of this is because there are not really a lot of new cards being added to the pool right now but also, prices are certainly taking a beating. My account value has dropped by 1/3 in the last 5 days. How's yours?

One thing that has continued to go up after a one day drop is battles fought. It hit a new record yesterday of 4,665,000! For context, 30 days ago it was 750k so there's been over a 6x increase in 30 days. The devs have done an excellent job of keeping the servers running when you consider all that growth.

Now for some not great news. Yesterday I mentioned that after greater crypto sell off we were still in an uptrend but I didn't like how we were hugging that support line. I said wed either break down hard or launch off of it but wouldn't stay on it long. Well, we got our answer. For the first day since this ramp of SPS started, we broke the uptrend and hard. I'm really hoping this is a one or two day fakeout but breaking an uptrend with conviction usually isn't good and this happened after the greater crypto selloff.

Unfortunately we've seen the same thing with Dec. The steady plodding uptrend broke down with the crypto market and dipped a little more yesterday as the crypto markets started to recover a bit. I'm noticing though that most of the Hive based coins are struggling though. I've also seen some large DEC sell orders going in which have held the price down. Someone was selling about 2.1 million dec and just kept moving the price to always be a few away from the next in line. These tactics are sometimes deployed to hold prices down, especially in illiquid markets. Maybe someone accumulating on the other side?

And this is the most erratic chart of them all. This new signup chart that looked like it was finally breaking out just came crashing back down again. But as crazy as it looks, its sort of making a few patterns. First you can draw this horizontal line right through and see that for all its swings, it's not really going anywhere.

But also, if you look at the chart below this, you can see that it is actually going somewhere. With higher lows and higher highs, it's now developed a weird new uptrend as long as it doesn't break this bottom line.

Meanwhile, spellbook purchases just made a new record and just keep trucking higher. No questions spellbook purchases are in an uptrend and have been this entire ramp.

Now onto card sales in USD value which has been in a downtrend for a few weeks but gave us a bit of a relief bounce off support yesterday thankfully as the alternative of breaking down below it could turn quite ugly. Still though, it's basically gone nowhere in the better part of a month. I'm actually a little worried about card values and sales going forward as it is clear now after seeing the numbers being released for new rewards cards that the devs are going to drown us in new card inventory even though there is no evidence at all that we need it and plenty of evidence to show we are drowning in inventory still from when this Splinterlands had 1/40 its current active accounts.

Here's a screenshot I just took showing how many cards are sitting unused on the rental market in EPIC cards right now. Look how many have over 1000 and some of these I personally own a bunch of and don't even bother listing them because there's already so much there and I'm a small fish compared to some of these accounts sitting on 20x what I have. This also doesnt account for cards sitting on the seller's market. And remember, most of these were mints from when this was a 5k player game. We don't need to scale up the new release.

And that brings me to the rental market.

There are no charts on rentals still for some reason but here's the recent numbers. Good and bad news here. The good news is the number of active rentals, while trailing other metrics, is starting an uprtrend again as a couple days ago it was 401k and yesterday is was 411k. However, between the bots in the rental market and the 20% haircut Dec took and hasn't really recorvered from, the dollar value of those keeps dropping from $33k a couple days ago to breaking below $29k today.

Based on the cards that are starting to move though, I'm going to say this uptrend is just people starting to grab cards for end of season while they are still cheap. Usually the first thing I see happen when the end of season ramp starts is gold epics start going up in price and right now, that's the major change in the market I'm seeing. GOld epics that were 15 a few days ago are now renting at 45 as the lower ones are snapped off the market. So this isn't out of the ordinary or indicative of the market catching up with its player numbers.

So to summarize, while battles and active accounts keep trucking higher, all financial metrics are still floundering.

My question for you is how have your rewards been this season? I've had 11 days in a row where the 750 dec a quest potion costs has been met with about 100 dec worth of value in return. Also, my dec rewards for winning have been cut in half on good days and by 75% on bad days compared to last season.

Is this consistent with what you've seen? If so, has it affected your purchasing, playing, or rental decisions?

Lets chat about it in the comments