Reward Cards

Cards Averages

Fire Splinter: $20.74
3 Mana: $10.48
3 Speed: $48.75
2 Armor: $38.63
2 Health: $15.37
1 Ability: $29.78

Venari Heatsmith's stats would indicate a value of around $27.29 however as it's a common card which are worth 7.45% as much as the average card in Splinterlands also as the new reward cards are printed at a 20X rate that would increase supply

Total Expected Value: $0.10

Cards Averages

Water Splinter: $25.44
3 Mana: $10.48
1 Melee Attack: $12.48
3 Speed: $48.75
2 Health: $15.37
2 abilities: $120.05

Pelacor Bandit's stats would indicate a value of around $38.76 however as it's a common card which are worth 7.45% as much as the average card in Splinterlands also as the new reward cards are printed at a 20X rate that would increase supply

Total Expected Value: $0.14

Cards Averages

Earth Splinter: $29.11
7 Mana: $73.02
2 Melee Attack: $20.60
2 Speed: $30.87
1 Armor: $7.78
8 Health: $53.94
1 Ability: $29.78

Pelacor Mercenary's stats would indicate a value of around $35 however as it's a common card which are worth 7.45% as much as the average card in Splinterlands also as the new reward cards are printed at a 20X rate that would increase supply

Total Expected Value: $0.13

Cards Averages

Light Splinter: $14.81
2 Mana: $10.28
3 Speed: $48.75
4 Health: $12.73
1 Ability: $29.78

Pelacor Conjurer's stats would indicate a value of around $23.27 however as it's a common card which are worth 7.45% as much as the average card in Splinterlands also as the new reward cards are printed at a 20X rate that would increase supply

Total Expected Value: $0.08

Cards Averages

Death Splinter: $21.44
5 Mana: $16.81
1 Melee Attack: $12.48
3 Speed: $48.75
8 Health: $53.94
1 Ability: $29.78

Pelacor Deceiver's stats would indicate a value of around $30.53 however as it's a common card which are worth 7.45% as much as the average card in Splinterlands also as the new reward cards are printed at a 20X rate that would increase supply

Total Expected Value: $0.11

Cards Averages

Neutral Splinter: $31.41
6 Mana: $48.78
1 Melee Attack: $12.48
1 Speed: $12.82
2 Armor: $38.63
6 Health: $49.97
1 Ability: $29.78

Gargoya Lion's stats would indicate a value of around $31.98 however as it's a common card which are worth 7.45% as much as the average card in Splinterlands also as the new reward cards are printed at a 20X rate that would increase supply

Total Expected Value: $0.12

I find that the values for each card estimate is lower than I would of thought at first glance. The price estimates are around the current going rates of the cards on the market. The biggest impact on the cards price and why they seem to be so low would be that they're 20 times as common than previous sets. One of the reasons so many of these card where printed was to keep the game friendly to newer players and my assumption would be unless we continue to see a large influx of players into the game these prediction will be somewhat accurate.

Pelacor Banit comes out on top of the commons which seems mostly due to the fact she has 2 abilities and cards with 2 abilites tend to be valued very highly. In second we see Pelacor Mercenary gaining most of his value from his high mana cost and health value.

Some people may disagree with decisions that I made in calculating the value of these cards and to be honest there is a lot of room to really analyse them from many different approaches and probably get vastly different results.

Caveats

I think its important to lay out some of the downsides of using this method of analysis.

1. Level 1 Cards - This method only looks at cards stats at level 1, however some cards become much more valuable (in terms of gameplay value) at higher level while other cards have more value at level 1 e.g Furious Chicken and Creeping Ooze.
2. Simplified Abilities - By simplfying the abilities of each by just counting how many abilities each card has I've grossly oversimplified this aspect of the card as some abilities are far more valuable than others. however in depth of each cards abilities rather than card stats would require an entirely differnt approach.
3. Scarcity - A lot of a card's value is driven by supply and with these new cards being printed 20X the rate of previous cards means that needs to be accoutanted for when considering potential value, the game's future popularity is going to have a huge impact on the potential prices these cards will reach.
4. Summoners - A key part of any spinter is the summoners a player will use. since none of the new reward cards are summoners I've decided to keep them out of the data set, though it's important to still recognise they have an impact on a cards value and viability in the meta.