Investment Advice? Not Investment Advice!!!
It's the time of year where we reflect on where we've been and plan for where we want to be. I've made some comments on here lately regarding investment strategies that are being discussed online, and I'll build a post out of some of the things one might think about.
Barbell Investing
Get a set of weights and get your dang self back in shape buster! Nah, not those kind of barbells, although one assumes you have actually seen a barbell. They look something like this:
Source: Modified Image by Денис Марчук from Pixabay
The idea is to put your investments in two categories; safe and risky. You can leave out things that are wishy-washy middle of the road things. Just have half your investments in safe sure things and then go degen crazy with the other half.
Safe - Cash
As an example for investing money right now, mainly for someone in the US since that is where I am, you may want to park a good chunk of change in a FDIC Insured savings account that pays 4.35% insurance and is guaranteed by the US gov for up to $250K per bank per account.
Where can you get this rate? Open an online Performance Savings Account at Capital One. Here's the disclosure info: https://www.capitalone.com/bank/disclosures/savings-accounts/online-performance-savings-account/
So you know you will get back whatever you put in here, and hopefully the interest stays this good for a while, but don't count on it! Rates may come down next year so keep an eye on what you're earning. Worst case scenario? Capital One fails and you have to wait many many months for the FDIC to make you whole again. Another bad scenario: Inflation kicks up again and stays higher than what you're getting on your savings, so you lose purchasing power slowly over time.
Stocks - ETFs
I don't consider this to be in the Safe category but some might, if you have a long enough time horizon. If you don't need the money any time in the next 10 years and you can dollar cost average in, a few Exchange Traded Funds might be good for you.
My friend @chinito was asking for opinions on Vanguard ETFs and I answered here: https://inleo.io/hive-167922/@kenny-crane/re-chinito-s6i4xk
I said if he wanted just one all around decent Vanguard ETF then their ticker symbol VOO might work. It gives medium diversification with some of the tech weighting which should give good returns in this age of AI and robotics and electric cars and whatever else is coming. Also the fee is just a third that of SPY, the original S&P 500 tracking ETF.
But why limit oneself to just US companies? Looking to the future, I think the US global dominance is decreasing over time. We had a good run since WWII but our strength has kept the world safe enough for other countries to develop economically and therefore our economic influence as a percentage of the world total has and will decrease. Therefore VT, Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund ETF, is looking good.
https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/etfs/profile/vt
Also outside the US, if you had to pick one country to invest in, you might try India. It has the same population as China but it's a democracy and it has excellent demographics. Many young working people and not many old retired people. Tons of tech professionals there too. Notice how many CEOs of American tech companies are from India!
According to a report by Gulf Today, 30% of the Fortune 500 Companies have Indians as their CEOs, which is continuing to display an upward trend. One-third of all the engineers present in Silicon Valley today are from India, and 10% of the entire world’s high tech company CEOs are of Indian origin. Some names of inspiring tech CEOs that immediately spring up are Sundar Pichai of Google and Satya Nadella of Microsoft, who are leading this revolution. Parag Agarwal, CEO of Twitter, is the latest to join this elite club but definitely not the last.
Source: https://globalleaderstoday.online/the-rise-of-indian-tech-ceos-in-the-us/
Here's some India stock ETFs as a starter for research:
https://money.usnews.com/funds/etfs/rankings/india-equity
Finally, if I had to pick one stock I think is super reliable and always seems to do well in almost any timeframe you want to look at, I might go with Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway B. May be good to put maybe 5% of your long term investment in, and just let it ride forever!
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BRK-B?p=BRK-B
Crypto - Risky
First, do you agree that #crypto is risky? I would say it is, for a few reasons. First, ambiguous regulation. The country we reside in could decide to shut down crypto (whatever that may mean) or regulate it to the point of making it un-usable or un-attractive to invest in. I know, #HIVE is decentralized and can't be shut down. But if the gov somehow finds out who you are, and threatens heavy punishment, are you going to use a VPN and continue as normal, and hope for the best? Good luck!
The other thing is conversion to fiat or another crypto. You may want to book some profits at some time from your crypto investments. That means you have to sell it, or use it as collateral for a loan. In either case you need a counterparty to buy what you have or accept it as collateral. Find an old copy of coinmarketcap.com say from 10 years ago and see how many tokens you recognize. Luckily we can do just that! https://web.archive.org/web/20131228020347/http://coinmarketcap.com/ How many of these tokens are you glad you never touched?
Last, you have to consider proper custody. Not your keys, not your coins, right? If you keep your crypto on exchanges then you haven't been watching the News the last 3 years. That is Not Safe! Many companies failed!
So, your keys, your crypto, right? Don't Forget your keys! Don't Lose your keys! Don't let anyone else Know your keys! If any of these things happen, you can't call Customer Service for help! Hive and Bitcoin and Ethereum don't have Customer Service.
So hopefully you understand some of the risks. But you want the mad gains. You want the moon pumps. Wen Lambo? ASAP! Slow down and divide whatever you feel you can lose entirely in your crypto bags into a new barbell of "safe" and risky crypto! And remember, don't invest more than you can afford to lose in crypto because You Can Lose It All.
Safe Crypto
No one really knows. But, if you're going for safety in crypto you may pick #Bitcoin $BTC and/or #Ethereum $ETH. Maybe put half to 90% of your crypto investable money there.
What about stablecoins? Are USDT really backed 100% by something? What about BUSD from Binance; aren't they facing some regulatory issues right now? DAI is decentralized, is that the one to have? Maybe.
HBD, yayyyy! Get some #HBD! It pays 20% interest and is backed by a dollar's worth of HIVE!
I wrote about HBD recently. I like it. I bought more over the last few months.
The interest rate is great at around 22% a year with the monthly interest compounding. But most outsiders don't seem too excited about HBD. It only trades on Upbit and here in the level 1 market for HIVE and in the level 2 markets of hive-engine and tribaldex for SWAP.HIVE.
Also, HBD’s 20% yield comes from the Hive blockchain’s inflation, and some don't like that. But the numbers look pretty good to me right now, so I do like it, for a small part of a crypto portfolio.
Risky Crypto
Does #HIVE $HIVE go in here? Maybe. We've been around almost 8 years if you count the pre-full-state-fork chain. We have a lot of dev going on, with VSC and SPK coming "soon". We have BlockTrades making dev work on here easier with HAF.
It is actually pretty easy to do a lot of things right now. I am thinking of doing a series showing anyone how to build a bot for token giveaways like I use on @tokenfaucet. I already made an HTML file with CSS and javascript that gives away tokens and it is in testing by a good friend on here. The HTML file can run right on your computer or even a raspberry pi, as long as you can leave it on all the time. So no cost to you; no need for a server.
Do hive-engine tokens go here? Probably. We all LOVE #LEO $LEO but look at that chart. Will it come back? Probably? The ads might help, and the Threads are super cool!
We all love #Splinterlands! Our huge Success in the Web3 PlayToEarn category. We saw our card values skyrocket! We saw gov token #SPS $SPS soar! Then both crashed. Players left as bots took over. Corporate layoffs. You know the story. But I am optimistic! LAND is exciting. The community is Strong!
I LOVE #PEPE! And #RPEPE and #PEPECASH! The PEPE on Hive family of 3 tokens are fun and the people that buy/sell/trade/meme/write about them are cool. But look at that MAX supply of PEPE. A Trillion tokens! PEPECASH has Only a Billion. :) Ah but look at RPEPE! Max supply of 2005, wow! That's what I'm talkin' 'bout! Whatever the supply, I'm just here for the FUN! Go PEPE! :)
And now we have $ZING #ZING for upcoming awesome HoloZing game by veteran Hiver acidyo and team. This. Looks. Amazing! Splinterlands kind of trajectory? We all hope so!
Buy or Stack ZING?
There are 4 kinds of rewards at https://holozing.com/rewards but remember that they are paid in ZING. Recently on hive-engine: Last Price 0.01430000 Hive per Zing. Source: https://hive-engine.com/trade/ZING Now back when the Zing token issuance started, acidyo wrote this post: https://inleo.io/@acidyo/zing-price about the price of Zing which I think he was saying that a fair price would be 0.001333 hive / zing. He wrote another post where he was surprised the price of ZING was staying so high. The point is, ZING May go down 90% to more like 0.0013 instead of 0.014 where it is now.
I think it's good to read the posts @acidyo has made on ZING price, and there have been 2 or 3, one of which I linked above. He is the creator of the game and tokenomics!
ZING Token Supply
Another thing to think about is the supply of ZING:
Supply (Circulating / Total / Max)
30007249.523 / 30010000.000 / 9007199254740991.000
Source: the info pop up at https://hive-engine.com/trade/ZING
There could be up to 9,007,199,254,740,991 ZING in existence sometime!
That is 9 quadrillion tokens! That is 9000X MORE than PEPE!
Let's do some math. Imagine the price of ZING stays the same as it is now and the price of HIVE also stays the same. So this second, one ZING is worth $0.0051902
Market cap is price times number of tokens.
$0.0051902 x 9,007,199,254,740,991 = $46,749,165,571,956
That is 46 TRILLION DOLLARS market cap for ZING!
My opinion is that I don't even see how it could go any where near 46 Billion dollars let alone 46 Trillion. But if it did reach (only) 46 Billion, then its price would be a thousand X lower than it is now, if all the tokens are issued.
I believe the plan for HoloZing is to keep releasing more and more tokens over time, with that Max supply cap as shown above. It may never reach that Max but even if it reaches 1/1000 of its Max, and the price never moves up or down, then ZING will still achieve a 46 Billion dollar market cap.
The point is, the price we see today is with a very very very small amount of the total possible number of ZING out on the market today. We have to hope that the HoloZing team manages the supply of ZING to keep the price up, but it seems they are more interested in having plenty of ZING in circulation for the many uses it will have in the game. Just something to think about so we can assess our risk and how much we want to put into ZING.
Other Risky Crypto
Bitcoin Ordinals? Not for me. Seems like a degen craze that could die out at any time. @edicted talks about it here, see what he says: https://inleo.io/hive-167922/@edicted/current-events-back-in-the-saddle
#HEX? It is down 99% from all time highs but still up hundreds from all time lows. RISKY! Watch the new documentary The Highest Of Stakes to see how risky. One guy put $100K in at the top. REKT! But it is paying about 38% interest, in HEX, if you lock it for a while. It's supposed to be like a CD. Lock longer, get paid better. The community is diehard, some say like a cult.
https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/the_highest_of_stakes
98% Audience Score!
What else is out there NOW in Crypto Land?
Watch this to see what #ElioTrades says about the barbell investing strategy and what he is stacking.
Video source
Watch this to see what #IvanOnTech @ivanli is saying right now! He is wary of #Solana $SOL but likes #sei and mentions upcoming EigenLayer. BTW, All RISKY!
@scaredycatguide just wrote about #SEI minutes ago, so go read that. https://inleo.io/hive-167922/@scaredycatguide/sei-mooning-so-fast-i-couldnt-grab-more
Conclusion
There is NO Conclusion! There is no crypto advice here. I am not a financial advisor. You better not act on anything you see one person write about or make a video about. Whatever you do is Your Choice, and the results are yours to deal with.
But 2024 is about here, and I wish you all a Happy New Year! Let's be friends on here. Let's support each other as we can. Let's work together to make Hive a great place to be for another year! Best wishes to all!
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Barbell Investing I bought myself a resistance training bar this year and have found it quite useful. Any investment analogies for resistance band? 😅
Cash - Getting close to 5% in Australia. I feel like cash is a reasonable option given the unknown future, but it is a pity it never keeps up with inflation. Time for a gold backed currency that has real value? (or BTC backed?)
Stocks - I've been looking at minerals based shares - hasn't been a great year for those I've been tracking.. Maybe 2024 will be the year low stockpiles of some minerals gets more attention??
Crypto - Up/Down/Down/Down/Up/Down/Up/Up... Repeat
Zing - if SPS and GLX's introductory prices are any indication, it may be headed down 🤔
Conclusion:
Good day and happy new year my friend! :)
I've done some research and programming experiments with Hysteresis which has some analog with resistance bands, however I'm not prepared to expound more on it at the moment. I'll just say it has to do with engineering the gaining and losing of stats and/or rewards due to success and failure in games.
Might be the time to grab a high interest CD. Might be the only way to have your cash paying a higher interest rate than inflation if your CD interest is locked for a long enough time period and inflation comes down to below that rate maybe in a few months or a year.
Gold has held value universally for thousands of years mainly because its somewhat scarce and easy to make into shiny and/or useful things. One main "purpose" or having shiny things is to show others that you're wealthy or well off. See Conspicuous consumption. There is some possibility that due to AI and robotics advancing quickly, that there will no longer be a need for human labor in 5 years and we'll reach a true state of abundance where everyone feels wealthy. For more on this and AI in general, see videos by super genius David Shapiro like this one.
Also Gold is useful due to it's physical and chemical properties. But material science is also rapidly advancing and gold may be overshadowed soon.
Further, how do you know what someone says is gold, is really made of gold? You have to do a Metallurgical assay, or just believe whoever is holding gold really has real gold. Some say gold is a hedge against some unspecified future disaster, but when it comes time to buy and sell food and necessities with gold, will we really have full certainty of what might look like gold? So I don't think gold is quite the hedge against a bad future as some say. In addition to the above, you have to store it and transport it, which could easily expose you to risk of theft.
Near me is a shut down Lithium mine which is in the News because it may be reopened due to demand for Lithium for batteries. But recently I read of <a href=:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sodium-ion_battery">Sodium batteries. Point being, again in this rapidly changing world (now more than ever due to AI) we can't predict as easily the future value of minerals. Maybe ones that are easier to extract and are extracted by existing operations might be good for short term plays. But thinking about Lithium mines which won't be profitable for years, for example, might not work out well.
Crypto and Zing in particular - very risky as I said in the article. If something doubles, sell half so your skin in the game is ZERO, then sleep at night no matter what happens! :)
As always, not financial advice. I may not know what the heck I am talking about. I'm just somebody online saying things that come to mind. Do your own research, obviously. :)
Perhaps you can build this concept into @tokenfaucet, where a user's past interactions are used to generate a multiplier - a dice roll might tell a story rng story:
[While walking down] [the road] [yesterday] you saw a [@kennybot]'s post yesterday and responded with a [lengthy post]. Your Karmic credit is positive.
Or something like that, making certain stories, positive or negative based on random hashes from the comment transactions. Gamify the comments section 😁
I'm somewhat sceptical that inflation figures truly represent inflation's actual pressure when prices. If we were to put Gold, Silver, BTC into the basket of goods used to make the figure, alongside changes the items in the basket to represent what most people buy - not the cheapest options in the value range which many avoid, I suspect we'd see a lot higher inflation figure 🤔 Maybe time for an alternative inflation measure? 🤔
Lithium is an interesting one. I do wonder if demand will catch up again amongst the muddleheaded push of some politicians towards more pressure on a struggling energy grids that rely on solar and shut down coal (Australia, but likely other places - maybe the UK when they run out of forest's to cut down in British Columbia (12& of the countries power...) and burn back home under the legal loopwhole of 'green'-ness). Stop driving petrol cars. Stop burning gas on your stoves. Meanwhile restrict your energy usage or we might have a blackout. Good goals, terrible planning and foresight.
Disclaimer: Unedited and not peer-reviewed
Quoting the premise:
Thanks 👍
Crypto truth be told is risky just as you said but well life is a risk that we keep trying to play on. We should make wise investment decisions in 2024
My choice will forever be crypto. There is no doubt that cryptocurrency is risky and that’s why we have to be careful of what we invest in.
Also, we have to be mindful of our investments
It was time to buy three months ago and you can still buy
Lots of gud stuphs! Thank you for the mention of #pepe! !ALIVE !WINE !LUV
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@kenny-crane! You Are Alive so I just staked 0.1 $ALIVE to your account on behalf of @ pepetoken. (3/20)
The tip has been paid for by the We Are Alive Tribe through the earnings on @alive.chat, feel free to swing by our daily chat any time you want, plus you can win Hive Power (2x 50 HP) and Alive Power (2x 500 AP) delegations (4 weeks), and Ecency Points (4x 50 EP), in our chat every day.
https://twitter.com/LovingGirlHive/status/1741514764973658122
Even though it is risky, i still believe the Crypto is the next big investment choice and not only that but because the bull run is around the corner
All the investment opportunities you presented in the post are good though I would go with crypto despite the risks involved. I wanted to know if the Zing token by @holozing is based on the hive blockchain.
Yes, ZING is a level 2 HIVE token on the hive-engine token system. You can buy and sell it for SWAP.HIVE at https://hive-engine.com/trade/ZING
SWAP.HIVE is just HIVE on hive-engine. You can move it back and forth from your HIVE wallet but there is a 0.75% fee to deposit HIVE and switch it to SWAP.HIVE and also the same 0.75% fee to withdraw SWAP.HIVE to HIVE so be aware of that.
yay! I feel good knowing that I got a capital one saving account too! :)
So much to consider and think about.. yea, I like the safe/cash side, and the the more risky/crypto side.
I didn't know Zing was gonna be THAT big! I gotta get me some more..
I would say that the probability of being able to get ZING for a lower price in the future is high, but one never knows. We are all prone to the Fear Of Missing Out! :)
FOMO is real! :(
I'm still not sure what is SPK. Would love to see what it is for.
SPK Network is going to provide a lot of new functionality for us on HIVE. It is already running 3Speak.tv, the video part of HIVE. You can read more about what they are working on at https://peakd.com/hive-112019/@spknetwork/spk-network-funding-proposal-2023 or read their Light White Paper at https://peakd.com/hive/@spknetwork/spk-network-light-paper
Still hopeful for Hive.
Morning mate, noticed your alt was sniping some $slothbuzz tokens! Is it a bot account for trading? or just a manual account? We'd love some tips on making a bot ourselves. Just saw the mentions for your tokenfaucet also, might be an interesting thing to build into Sloth.Buzz!
If you've got a bit of time and care to share your knowledge we'd love to help you continue to build and create on Hive. We're in the Sloth.Buzz Discord it would be great to see you there.
!SLOTH
Learn more about the SLOTHBUZZ Token at Sloth.Buzz and consider sharing your post there or using the #slothbuzz next time
(1/5)
Yep, dipping my toe in some $slothbuzz :)
kennybot is for gaming and misc stuff and is generally manual. But I do have my own custom votebots, the tokenfaucet giveaway bot and a bot that manages game transactions in metarobots. Look for a series of posts soon as I open source the token giveaway bot. It would be cool to see many more people doing token giveaways!
Just joined the Discord; thanks for the invite!
well. I guess investing is nt so easy when younlook at it..
I used to feel BD was not in the class of risky but I think I am wrong and I think I should start retracing my thoughts.
HBD is still crypto and crypto is still risky even with the track records, you can never say never in the land of crypto.
I guess we should still heed to your advice and also the advice of Warren..
Invest in what you fully understand and do it for the long term.
So what safe options do you think are available for people wo are not in the US as regards ETFs.
The comissions in the apps I see are very expensive in my opinion
I don't know the details about buying ETFs in your country, but generally "managed" funds or ETFs have higher fees than ones that simply track an index. SPY or VOO tracks the S&P 500 in the US market and there may be something similar for your country's stocks. Or maybe you can buy shares of these US ETFs on a low fee app like Robinhood, or by creating some sort of business entity somewhere in the world which has access to the US markets.
Probably best to contact a local accountant or lawyer.
Thank you
Your disclaimer highlighting that this is not financial advice but rather a well-informed sharing of insights is crucial. It encourages readers to make informed decisions while underlining the importance of personal responsibility in financial matters.