WARNING: Don't Get Ripped Off on Chaos Legion Packs on Hive-Engine (Or Vouchers)

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(Edited)

Alright folks, it's important that we have a talk, because ever since the Chaos Legion pre-sale began, it has become quite clear that there's a lot of folks who don't understand exactly what's happening, how the airdrops work, how the pre-sale works, etc.

Or they can't do basic mathematics, I guess that could be it too :-P

Let's start off looking at the prices for vouchers & CL packs on the market right now:

What are Vouchers & Packs?

The first clear confusion here is that people aren't realizing how the pre-sale works, how to get the promo cards, and work towards the other bonuses... so let's break that down really quick.

To buy a pre-sale pack of CL in the shop costs $4 + 1 voucher ($3.60 if paying SPS)

Each pre-sale pack purchased comes with a few bonuses/perks/prizes:

  • Each pack gives a 2% chance for Dr. Blight, 1 guaranteed per 50 packs
    • Each Dr. Blight has a 2% chance of being gold, 1 guaranteed GF per 1000 packs
  • If you buy 1000 packs, you get the Legionnaire title (worth 100k AP)
  • The top 6 pre-sale buyers get to create their own legendary summoners

But there's an important detail that I think most people missed:

Only pre-sale packs purchased in-game count for any of it.


Let's really let that one sink in for a minute.

Again, any packs that you purchase on the secondary market DO NOT count for any airdrops, promo cards, titles, or anything else to do with the pre-sale.

People are paying $11-12 for a $3.60 pack, with no bonuses, that they still can't open until the regular sale happens.

That's right, buying these pre-sale packs on the secondary market gives you 300 airdrop points, and a pack you can open in a month or two, and NOTHING ELSE.

Why $11 Packs?

Anyone who has been around for Splinterlands packs in the past knows that the packs are always cheaper on Hive-Engine than they are in the shop, because all the bonuses are lost. Then, once they sell out in the shop, the prices on the secondary market start to go up.

In this case, there are just so many noobs chomping at the bit for packs, who haven't seen how this works before, and who just see a pack for cheaper than a voucher, and they're getting ripped off for a lot of money.

Now, we all know how crypto, investing, and gaming work... lots of people rip themselves off and/or screw themselves over... But it's still nice to try to throw out warnings now and then.

There's currently 100,000 vouchers released, of the 1,000,000 coming out this month... but there's still 15,000,000 packs total... 150x the supply we see now... and as we just discussed the "pre-sale" part doesn't matter if you're buying them on the market.

Sounds like the perfect scenario for a massive price crash to me.

Why $20 Vouchers

This one is even funnier than the over-priced packs... because it's kind of a feedback loop.

There are just so many people who want to buy, and have no idea at all what they're doing, that it's making a mess of the economics.

Right now, if I take one of my vouchers, I can:

  1. Sell it on the market for $20, or
  2. Spend $3.60 to get a pack, then sell the pack for $12 and keep the airdrops

That means you can make $9.40 per voucher air-dropped, AND stack packs towards the promo, airdrop cards, and/or a title.

If the CL packs were down at $3-4 like they should be (and will be soon), then it forces the vouchers way down too...

What I'm doing

Well, I've been getting over 11 vouchers per day from the airdrop...

The first night, I sold 11 of first 13 vouchers to hit the market...

The second night, I sold all 11 at about $2 more each...

The third night, I sold them all at that same price...

Now I've got all that Hive put right back into buy orders for cheaper vouchers...

But I'll get enough vouchers over the next 27 days to get the Level 3 Dr. Blight that I need anyway...

So worst case scenario I just made any extra $700 for those first three days :-)

The Funniest Part

Let's take a look at that image from the very top again, because you may have missed something...

So far, we were just talking about the packs & vouchers, but did you notice the real silly part?

The vouchers and packs are both priced far higher than expected, and yet...

SPS (the ONLY way to get vouchers) is down $0.15 (16.66%) from when the first vouchers airdropped...

And DEC (the best way to get free SPS) is down $0.002 (13.33%) in that same time frame...

That makes a ton of sense right? The new airdropped thing is more valuable than anticipated, so the prices of the tokens used to earn it drop a bunch...

The only thing that makes sense is that folks are dumping their DEC & SPS to buy vouchers/packs... but if you have much of either coin, then you're probably sitting fine on vouchers.

#ClownWorld

I guess we I really shouldn't be surprised by anything at this point, between the explosion of crypto and the fact that half the world is taking experimental gene modifications because they're worried about the 2019-2020 flu season... It sure seems like 2012 might have been the end, and now we're in the post-credits bloopers.



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44 comments
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I think you captured the only scenario that explains the drop in SPS and DEC, people selling them in order to buy voucher or packs. I never anticipated that outcome because, quite frankly, I didn’t think people would be that clueless as to the economics of the pre-sale. There’s going to be a lot of bitchy people when this is all said and done, people who way overpaid for vouchers and those that way overpaid for HE packs.

I really hope your dr blight card ends up worth more than the voucher value you may end up forgoing if they stay at $15-20 each throughout presale. At this point, I think I’m selling all vouchers and I’ll be able to buy specific cards cheaper after the fact. Only time will tell though. !PIZZA

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My thinking exactly. I mean, I still haven't gotten a full voucher (80 staked SPS get you not very far), but I intended to go all in buying packs, when I heard, CL was around the corner.
After the Voucher introduction, I had to shift my focus and came up with the strategy to buy packs after the voucher phase and buy specific cards from the market, when they flood in.

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(Edited)

Very good information and I am also from those who bought Vouchers in the market and pass them into the game and you can buy 2 pack as I show you here https://prnt.sc/1ww6kbj but as you say you do not can I open, my question is the next, can I open them when the pre-sale ends? I have to buy something else? or have I lost my money inverted? This information is very good and I think that as you say many people do not know this. I await your answer

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Yes, you will be able to open them when the presale ends, and you will be eligible for the presale bonuses as well since you bought your packs within the game.

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Thank you very much, now I understand what it says in the post, I was guided by intuition and I have bought 15 chaos that are worth cheaper and I can only hope that the price rises like the other pack and I put an example: the Splinterlands Land Plot when I buy it It was worth $ 8 and now it's for $ 1000

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It's funny because a lot of people were celebrating a post by another user who bought a pack for an expensive price and this is a post saying to do the exact opposite. Hopefully they give you a good chunk of spt as they do other users. It's a well written post and I enjoyed reading it. I can't afford to do anything with vouchers or packs until the regular sale period comes along.

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I hadn't seen that post, that's pretty funny though :-P

People celebrating having spent too much money, haha!

It's like how thousands more people start tweeting about buying crypto... when the price skyrockets haha.

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She knew she would make $50 in SPT for that post, $20 more than paid for the pack. Ended up walking away with a nice profit.

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The post was more of a celebration of being the first to purchase the pack on the secondary market. Other than the bragging rights of being first, and the huge earnings from the article, there's no point buying it so expensively.

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Same here. I sit this one out and buy cheap from the market (and a few packs).
I shifted my focus on reward cards at the moment. When they go out of print, they go up as well, I hope.

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I have also found the situation a bit baffling, but I guess a lot of people really don't keep up with any Splinterlands news at all. Which probably means they won't read your post either, but at least you tried. :)

Hopefully you've at least managed to fill in the gaps for people who missed the key detail about needing to buy direct to qualify for presale bonuses.

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This is great information, it is a pity that many people do not read this, but in my weekly review that I do I will put it, because it is very valuable information.

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Thank you for this post. :D

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Completely agree with everything you wrote, buying a pack of cards from outside markets is really no sense.
I since day one am selling all my token vouchers, if they drop in price in the last days of the presale I will buy them otherwise not.
!PIZZA

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I'm right there with you, so far at least...

I do definitely want to get my lvl 3 Dr. Blight, so I'm on the fence about selling away all my vouchers, just in case the price stays steady, or goes up, over the month, and/or the card does end up costing $500+ per copy.

Playing it by ear, we'll see what tomorrow brings :-)

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It's really frustrating people are proving up cl prices and therefore keeping vouchers prices so high! Its just feels crazy!

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There really are some people who'd take advantage from other people's disadvantages.. . Specially those who use to buy--play--earn--consume--repeat cycle who usually consumes more than what they earn.

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This situation also appears strange to me. I am a new player as I began the game roughly a month ago, yet this issue is quite apparent to me. I think the people buying these packs are people who didn't care to do their research ahead of time coupled with a fear of missing out, despite the fact that packs not purchased in the shop, carry little to no benefits except for the cards they contain, even if they were bought during the presale period.

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FOMO is the wallet's worst enemy, haha!

Obviously the folks wasting their money are going to be pretty pissed when they realize what happened... my only concern is that this may result in a ton of folks leaving the game, and speaking negatively about it because they got "ripped off."

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I think as always in life, most people won't even notice, they got ripped off.

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That's probably true.

I wonder if this is the kind of situation that the saying "ignorance is bliss" is really referring to... If you're stoked you bought some early packs, and don't ever realize that you paid 5-6x what they were worth... then did you really get ripped off?

Yes. But you wouldn't mind. Haha!

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Yes, exactly 😀. And many people who FOMO in, seemingly have this kind of cash lying around.

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Hello,
I found your post interesting, but I had one quick question for you. What is Doctor Blight?

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Well written! It's nice to try to draw the attention of ppl about this hype driven madness.

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I was actually tempted to buy the Chaos Legion pack at Hive Engine seeing that it's much cheaper than the vouchers but ends up buying SPS instead. That being said I might buy some packs if the price goes down to $8 and/or if the price of the vouchers didn't change after the pre-sale since I don't really care about the bonuses as I don't have enough resources to buy 50 packs let alone 1000 packs. Of course I could just end up buying more DEC and SPS instead.

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What about buying CL at 4$ when pre sale ends?

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Then I'll buy some in a jiffy. Anyways, I don't think I would be able to buy anything during the pre-sale with how things are so I could only wait till the pre-sale end.

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(Edited)

Your analysis is on-point, Kenny. I like enjoying the H Y P E myself too, but the prices, today, make abslutely no sense at all.

1_up_curator_luizeba.png

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I was gonna just get a few packs just to try out.
But balked at the crazy prices.
Besides, I haven't even figured how to move my meager SPS in HE over to the Splinterlands website. I'm so Nooob.
I was just getting interested and now I'm getting turned off.

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

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If you go to your SPS page in-game, then hit the transfer button, then select wallet > Hive Engine, put in the amount, and hit transfer in.

Don't worry about the pack prices, they will be $4 soon, when the release happens, and will most likely be crashing before that as well, as people realize that packs on H-E are worth less than a normal pack, because they don't qualify for airdrops, promos, titles, etc.

As usual, it seems like the biggest issue is a lack of clear communication, leading to a bunch of folks making really bad financial decisions.

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That's well written, objective and a very needed article. Keep the great work, dude!

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