Excessive or Progressive? | Discussing Card Supply
"Oversupply" is an ever-increasing sinkhole for cards as they age, which will continue to grow with each subsequent edition that is released.
Oversupply refers to the disproportion between the increase in card supply and the demand.
To gain a better understanding of this concept, we will identify practical examples where oversupply is evident and assess what might be the developer's solution to all of this.
So, without further ado…
A prime example of oversupply can be found in the comparison of Silvershield Warrior and Sunkai Harvester: Two almost identical cards, from different editions.
|Sunkai Harvester||Chaos Legion||5||1||4||Melee||1||2||1||3||Reach|
Analyzing combat stats alone; a level 1 Sunkai Harvester is better than a level 1 Silvershield Warrior by 1 speed. Where Silvershield Warrior outshines Sunkai Harvester is in collection power (CP). While a 6x increase in CP does sound more beneficial than 1 additional speed; this notion becomes less apparent when we compare card prices:
Looking at the "Low Buy" prices between each card, we can see that the lowest market price for a level 1 Silvershield Warrior is $2.490, compared to a level 1 Sunkai Harvester which is $0.066. At these price points, we could purchase 30 copies of Sunkai Harvester, to make it level 4 and still have some change left over. Below is the resulting comparison:
|Sunkai Harvester||Chaos Legion||150||4||4||Melee||2||3||2||3||Reach||$1.98|
We now have a Sunkai Harvester with significantly better combat stats and 120 more CP; all the while costing $0.51 less.
Now, there is one additional perk to using Silvershield Warrior, in that it provides a 10% bonus to DEC earned from battles, as a benefit of being an Alpha card. My view is that you are certain to win a lot more battles with a level 4 Sunkai Harvester, than a level 1 Silvershield Warrior, therefore the bonus no longer justifies the price.
The argument of "A higher price, for more CP and a 10% bonus in DEC rewards" is further foiled when we look at the price of Chaos Legion reward cards. Collection power is in abundance and is so dirt cheap that it almost seems ludicrous. Below is the potential haul of CP we can obtain (at current), for the price of a level 1 Silvershield Warrior.
These price comparisons are not just limited to Silvershield Warrior though. Further examples can be found throughout the Alpha and Chaos Legion editions. Below are a few more, where the price of a level 1 Alpha can afford a level 3 or 4+ of a similar Chaos Legion card:
Another consideration is the 12 new reward cards (referred to in the latest 'Ranked Rewards Update' post), being introduced next month, which will further dilute the CP utility (and possibly the battle utility) of older cards, by flooding the supply of cheap cards.
Tag on the release of Riftwatchers after that; followed by Rebellion in Q1 of 2023. The results are jaw-dropping!
So, what is the solution to this dilemma?
We need something that grants even more superior benefits to older cards, as collection power and a 10% bonus to DEC earnings appear to be inefficient in maintaining card usability. We also need something to "lock-up" a large portion of the growing card supply, to help maintain the monetary value of existing cards as more are introduced.
The solution is...
Now, we don't know exactly how Land will work or operate, but the general idea is that both Summoners and Monsters will need to be staked on a Land plot, acting as workers, to farm resources.
The number of Summoners and Monsters, and their required levels for optimal production are yet to be confirmed, but my hope is that the devs will set these parameters in accordance with the existing card supply, to act as the "lock-up" mechanism that we so desperately need.
Land would effectively become a "retirement home" for old and redundant cards and would be able to house the inflating card supply, indefinitely.
I have a lot of faith in the Splinterlands team (particularly Yabapmat), so perhaps the increased card supply was purposeful in facilitating the parameters planned for Land. This would mean that what we see as "oversupply", is actually preparation for a bigger picture. The problem is that in the short term, older cards are sitting idle, waiting for a purpose in the ecosystem.
Knowing how HUGE Land is going to be in shaking up the Splinterlands economy, perhaps this is a worthy sacrifice.
Let me know what you think in the comments below!
I appreciate your time and attention and I look forward to seeing you in the next post...
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