Runi: Success or Failure?

Discord was lively today. It was the Runi Public Mint day after all...Lots to talk about...traits to flex! getting that elusive GF or even better...LOTS of legendary traits...OR BOTH! Since it's Public Mint Day, there would be lots of discussion on the future of Generative NFTs in the game...talking about the Trait swapping feature and the Staking mechanism coming soon...Discuss the possibility of ABILITIES AS TRAITS...not just your look is unique...but your ability set...Discussing the possibilities for the NEXT collection...Utility and Staking Rewards and Discord Roles and...

Yeah, THIS Monkey faced boy should be a reach monster with thorns and trample and enrage

Of course this didn't happen. The Public Mint isn't going well. The ETH whales didn't show up to take us to the Promised Land.

It's a little after 3 am local time and the mint has been live for over 15 hours. The Bears are coming out of the woodwork Nerdsplaining about how this effort was doomed from the gate and if only the team would have just ASKED him he would have told them everything they would need to do to get it right and now my runi isnt worth squat because the Team is out to get me...ITSNOTFAIRITSNOTFAIR

YAY Discord!

What happened with the Mint? this obviously wasn't the result that Aggy and the Team envisioned...There are division points to be identified...lessons to be learned. There were certain assumptions made by the team. What were they? Were they accurate? How far off were they? why? These are all questions that I'm sure will be discussed exhaustively in many Team Meetings going forward.

But was it a failure? Well...not sure.

From a financial standpoint, it depends on dev costs...they ARE making money here...every mint and every sale...but my gut says it's prolly not much compared to development costs.

There was also this element of this Hive/ETH bridge/association thingy that was supposed to bring outside exposure...So I've been paying attention to Outside Mints...as anybody familiar with my story will know...to my detriment lol and looking at the speed that other projects Mint Out, it's pretty clear there is very little if any outside interest in our project. Whatever marketing happened here did not work.

Looking at this from an NFT ownership position...it's a hard sell. 0.38 ETH to mint something with a 0.265 floor.

Hmmm...seems clear, right? Utter Failure. It's hard to argue with this narrative. Let me try,

Did Runi fail the player base? Is the average Splinterlands player better or worse off because Runi exists in the SPL universe? I'm not talking about anybody who minted...THOSE folks are covered above...I'm talking about What Runi means and implies for the future of the game and the player base that will utilize him...and his descendants.

Lets talk about what Runi is and how his Utility works in the game. His 6 traits are randomly generated to create a unique looking NFT that you can then Stake on the Ethereum Blockchain. There is then a process that will delegate an exact copy of the staked card to whatever account the card is staked to. Simple. the Stats of the card are preset and static...they paste a picture of your card on existing assets...lol or something similar i imagine. So we are talking about 500 bucks for a pretty effective looking niche legendary monster with a personalized cosmetic appearance.

So that's what we have. Do we declare it a "Success" or "Failure" based solely on the points i've made above? LOL my position is: Obviously Not! We take the things that worked well and expand there...find the things that didn't work and and then find an alternative...create the next collection and continue to expand the offerings...

Ethereum is an acceptable home for generative NFTs. the gas costs were reasonable. the (hopefully) expanded user base lives there...and it's got the coverage needed...they are already working on the Bridge...this is our choice so lets make the best of it. I keep thinking of how we are "HIVE Famous" or "HIVE Popular" in the same way as a cute girl moving to California...Being "Alaska Pretty" in California is the same as being "HIVE famous" on Ethereum. the only real success will come from a bit of Plastic Surgery and a voice coach to get rid of that DAMN DRAWL!

So what are the key features required for a "successful" Generative NFT rollout? Well it's GOT to be special. the floor HAS to be priced in to include players with smaller bankrolls. It's got to be a safe process where Non-Crypto guys (lulz like ME) can acquire/mint and then immediately Stake then then return safely to HIVE.
That covers many of the basic complaints i have read so far...too expensive, not unique enough for the cost, not enough outsidesupport, OpenSea is full of hackers that want to steal your stuff...fix those and then all you have to do is release a product that the player base wants to buy and stake and use and love...

What would that look like? well to me it would look like a monster who's ABILITIES would be traits in addition to their unique appearances. So visual traits first...say we mint my monkey boy...it's got 2 legendary traits, 1 epic trait and 2 common traits. this combination will determine it's base rarity...(Common, Rare, Epic, Legendary). Once base rarity is determined, then assign from a list of abilities a group of RANDOM abilities that are separated in the same way...C/R/E/L...and there's ur NFT...completely unique and potentially an unstoppable BEAST...or a dud. Set the mint so the average player can afford it and then let the Market Market.
The most common would look similar to any other common...fewer and less powerful abilities...but still potentially potent...nobody is going to argue with me that Deeplurker won't be anything but a blue staple for years to come...it's common and a max copy will cost you about 80 USD. lol or you might get a Kulu Swimhunter...no abilities but hits like a tank for what it costs...about 20 bucks for a max copy...Now reverse that for the Legendary Mint...who knows what the ceiling would be...but look to Kitty for inspiration on the unintended lethality of some ability combinations.

I can hear you now "DON'T DO IT, YOU'LL BREAK THE GAME" "This will turn it into Pay2Win" Think about it though...did Kitty break the game? Nope! Kitty is a Meta-Defining card sure...and it's powerful sure...but as each new expansion comes out there are more and more counters for that Meta-defining ability combination. My point? if there is a 1-off card...a single copy in existence...that one card could never alter the Meta on it's own...at worst the owner would be a Great White swimming through ranked gobbling up all the wins he comes across...at best...just a different monster you have to hope you don't come across...sorta like Kitty...

So what does this look like in game? a Collection "Riftwatcher Assassins" lulz...don't judge! where there would be 2, 3, 5, 6 thousand distinct and individual playable monsters that all have a different random trait feature, a different look and each card would provide an unknown element to the battle.

the floor will belong to the players...the ceiling to the Whales. for the cost of a 0.03 ETH mint...which would roughly be the cost of a max level common card...you could pull a single, unique version of a very powerful card...or a Swimhunter. We already know what the player base will pay for most cards...check Peakmonsters...align the mint to where the floor can be protected by the players who want and love to play with new cards. the whales will define the ceiling...imagine Quora or some beefed up clone being minted...what's the ceiling on that? If you have a defined ceiling and a protected floor...that might make our projects more palatable to outside interests...they just want to protect their bottom line.

and the Team still makes money...the trading volume would be greater and the ceiling would be higher...and that 7.5% will add up.

So was Runi a failure? i personally don't think so. i see too much potential to declare this a failure. My imagination is humming with the possibilities for the future...who wants to join me?