Rebellion Packs and Cards Prices Prediction in Market

The Rebellion presale event started on October 18, 2023, and will continue for 27 more days or earlier if all cards get sold out. There are 500,000 packs presented in the presale and almost 50% of the packs have been bought until now. Although, the sale went on a high spirit as expected on day 1, but yet 50% sold out is a big amount. It is a month-long event, so hopefully, this might take 1 or 2 weeks to end.

Well, the overall market conditions are quite cold these days and these are affecting the buying power of players and investors alike. Such is the behavior of the market, sometimes in green and the rest in red.

Let's talk on the subject of this article and see what will be the prices of Rebellion cards and packs in the market in the long run.

Rebellion Pack Official Price

1 Pack is sold by paying 5000 DEC or CREDITS, the price is almost equal to $5 in fiat currency, but adding 1 VOUCHER can reduce 200 DEC or CREDITS from the actual price, a buyer can use up to 5 VOUCHERS in total, which means that the price would be +/- $4 for a pack.

DEC is slightly off the peg at 0.00095 and 5 VOUCHERS to a pack is a nice deal in the shop, but using VOUCHERS with CREDITS costs you more than $4 as you have to pay VOUCHERS upfront. So, keep in mind that DEC+VOUCHERS can give you a better price than CREDITS.

Rebellion Packs Sold in Secondary Markets

Rebellion booster packs are currently available for sale in Layer2 Hive-Engine markets, and you won't believe that secondary market prices are much better than the official Shop. But, you cannot get limited edition cards buying packs from these markets, promo cards can only be earned by purchasing from an official shop.

The prices vary depending on the demand for the packs, but I observed the lowest price went down to 9.5 HIVE and the highest was 10.4 approximately. Look at the chart from Hive-Engine.com shows the lowest and highest bids, the price in fiat currency equals $3 per pack in secondary markets.

Because of the cheap prices in secondary markets, many users prefer to purchase packs from these markets to grab the best deal on packs. I sense it is the same situation as it happened with Riftwatchers packs. The daily volume almost touches $1280 in Hive-Engine which points to a keen interest of users in cheap packs because it requires SWAP.HIVE for purchases and no other conversion is needed.

I looked into Splinterlands Market and found that the packs were being sold for $3.2.

The price of $3.2 in the SPLD Market is a bit higher than in secondary markets and users have to pay in DEC as well, so I think this is another reason that is driving users to buy from the secondary market rather than wasting time on conversions and transfers.

Future Price Prediction for Rebellion Booster Packs

Rebellion is a core edition and general sale will offer 9.5M boosters packs for purchases, which is a huge number and I reckon that it is pretty hard to sell all 9.5 M until the end of 2024, we know the result of overprinted Chaos Legion packs and now they are sold for less than a dollar in the markets.

The Above chart taken from Hive-Engine.com shows the ups and downs of the prices during different times of the day.

I expect a rise in supply after the general sale which will begin after 1 and a half months and players will be able to open packs and other Rebellion-linked features kick in, this will eventually split players' investment into both packs markets and card markets, and overall demand sentiments will increase toward card rather than packs.

The above scenario may trigger a sudden price drop for packs in the secondary market, which might be beneficial for those who want to buy packs for staking in Conflict (War Event). Looking at the current trend of trades, It looks like the future price of a pack may reach between $2.5 and $2. It will take some time but a general sentiment seems bearish.

Card Prices Prediction

Card prices depend on rarity, abilities, foil, and level of the cards, although certain common and rare cards cost more than some legendary cards because of high demand and low market volume.

It is obvious that cards with 4 new abilities will have higher demand and many players will want to own these cards. But, if we compare Chaos Legion and Riftwatchers cards, Riftwatchers cards have decent prices, and we assume that card prices of Rebellion pack will also be on the higher side in the beginning and may subside as more cards flow into the market.

It is quite difficult to figure out the average prices of cards, but we presume a ballpark figure for each regular foil card in general. A common card might have a price between $0.01 to $0.3, a rare card may sell between $0.05 to $0.6, an epic card might see bids between $0.1 to $1, and a legendary card might trade at $5 and onwards. Summoner cards will have a higher demand because of new tactics, so they will have a very high initial price.

As I said earlier it all depended on the rarity, level, and abilities of a card, these are the basic factors that affect the prices of cards and create a higher demand this way.

Conclusion

We can predict a price range, but we cannot determine ups and downs in the market, because we do our trades in Hive and all game assets prices vary based on the price of Hive, so if there is any change in the market, it might affect the prices of game assets as well.

Crypto products are highly volatile and there are always fluctuations in the price, even if we predict something can utterly go opposite. It all depends on the market conditions, a confident price assumption may not trigger or an event might be a cause of shaking the market.

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Posted Using InLeo Alpha