(Edited)

# Hey, whats up!

### Today I'm going to do some math analysis tooking for average power you'll get for each Chaos Legion pack.

Before all, if you would like to play splinterlands, this is the place!

I want to play the game

First of all, we need to understant the probabilites of getting each type of a card, looking at chaos legion info we got "Each pack will contain 5 cards randomly chosen from the Chaos Legion set with one card guaranteed to be rare or better and the same chances of receiving a rare, epic, legendary, and gold foil card as in all previous editions.".
Above information from: [chaos legion presale info](https://peakd.com/splinterlands/@splinterlands/chaos-legion-set-and-presale-info)

# For each card oppened we has a chance of:

1. Common cards has a chance of 75.2%
2. Rare cards has a chance of 20%
3. Epic cards has a chance of 4%
4. Legendary cards has a chance of 0.8% (increased to 1.6% while drinking potion).

Each card you oppened has a chance of 2% (increase to 4% drinking a potion) of being gold.

So with this in hand, lets suppose you open 10k packs (for statistical purpose and practical analysis)

Here we can see how much power you'll get for each card on Chaos Legion.

TypeNormalGold Foil
Common5125
Rare20500
Epic1002500
Legendary50012500

#### Opening 10k packs will give you:

TypeNormalGold Foil
Common36848752
Rare9800200
Epic196040
Legendary3928

#### Calculating the collection power we got:

TypeNormal PowerGold Foil Power
Common18424094000
Rare196000100000
Epic196000100000
Legendary196000100000

(Cool numbers, right?)

This will give us a total of 1166240 colletion power (wow). Since we suppose you have buyed 10k packs, you'll get 50k cards, so we simple do: totalpower/totalcards => 1166240/50000 = 23.3248 average power per card.

With this we get the average power you'll get for each card. Since each pack is about 4 usd (I dont know if vouches will be required to buy after the presale) this means that you'll get about 29.156cp/1usd. Without potions maybe you can get better options seeking for [peakmonsters](https://peakmonsters.com/) or [monstermarket](https://monstermarket.io/) (at monster market you gain cashback in each buy).

If the 10% promotion while buying with sps is still active, the ratio will be 32.39cp/1usd, close to better options at peakmonsters.

Now, lets suppose you use potions for EACH card. (Here you'll see the magic happens)

1. One legendary potion cost \$0.04
2. One alchemy potion cost \$0.05

#### Opening 10k packs will give you:

TypeNormalGold Foil
Common357121488
Rare9600400
Epic192080
Legendary76832

#### Calculating the collection power we got:

TypeNormal PowerGold Foil Power
Common178560186000
Rare192000200000
Epic192000200000
Legendary384000400000

(pretty better numbers, right!?)

This will give us a total of 1932560 colletion power (wow).
Since we suppose you have buyed 10k packs, you'll get 50k cards, so we simple do: totalpower/totalcards => 1932560/50000 = 38.6512 average power per card.

Suppose each pack costs \$4 + \$0.2 (legendary potion) + \$0.25 (alchemy potion) , this implies a ratio of 43.43 power/usd (WOW!).

Supposing the sps 10% discount is still active, you'll get: 47.71 power/usd.

# EXTRA

### How many packs you'll need to buy to reach each tier requirements?

The sps airdrop information was calculated (10/23/2021) and it takes into account only power acquired from packs.
Packs are rounded up.

TierPower RequiredHow Many Packs to BuySps Daily Airdrop
Bronze 3
Bronze 2100070.131
Bronze 15000350.655
Silver 3150001051.965
Silver 2400002805.24
Silver 1700004899.17
Gold 310000069913.1
Gold 2150000104819.65
Gold 1200000139726.2
Diamond 3250000174632.75
Diamond 2325000226942.58
Diamond 1400000279352.4
Champion500000349165.5

# Thank you for reading! :)

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Nice writeup. I think your potions costs are off by an order of magnitude though.

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Hey @nealmcspadden , thanks for your feedback! Potions costs are correct, no? Each legendary potion costs 0.04, so 5 cards equals to 0.2 and gold foil potion costs 0.05 so 5 cards costs 0.25. Thus, the total value per pack equals to \$4 + \$0.2 + \$0.25 = \$4.45. Anyway, thanks again for your feedback :)

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Hmm, this is interesting. I didn't realize they added credits to potion purchases. I just tried it and I was charged 39 credits (instead of 40 because of my guild discount). Amazing!

In the past it was DEC only, which obviously has 10x'd in price.

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Excelente post, esa tabla de como llegar a cada liga me pareció increible

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Interesting write up! thanks for this. 1000 CL packs may be doable if i dont need vouchers after. just thinking thru the potential value of the airdrops.

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I think vouchers will still be needed for some time after the presale.

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Am not so confident about the drop rate of CL compared with Untamed given how developer do thing lol

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Actually at the presale info you can see that the chances are the same.

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Great writeup! Very helpful to people thinking you'll be able to hit certain brackets.

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Hey there! I just wanted to say this is an awesome analysis. I also noticed that you didn't use the #oneup tag. If you haven't run into it yet. Oneup is a new frontend which is focused on all things NFT gaming. Any time you have another awesome post like this which focuses on NFT games feel free to use the tag.

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Hey @koteno, thank you for your feedback. Going to use the tag on my next posts.
Thanks again!

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Thanks for the analysis! This is really helpful :)

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Thank you for that work that was too hard for my brain lol

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Hahaha, it gave me a little work but I think that was worth it.

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Thanks for sharing! - @libertycrypto27

Great writing and excellent analysis on the estimated power score of the cards contained in the Chaos Legion card packs

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Thank you for the information :) I think I will go with 100 Packs so I can go to Silver.

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