Spirit of the Forest: Super Stealth Mode

Hi everyone!

This week we should have Xenith Archer for the WEEKLY BATTLE CHALLENGE, but I have decided to change the theme to another card. Xenith Archer is a good card, however I already have that card in my arsenal. I will talk about one of the card that I am planning to buy in the future, Spirit of the Forest! The artwork is amazing, her abilities are tremendous, and the lore is simple but majestic 👌.

From the safety of the Eldest Tree, deep in the shrouded magic of the Hungry Wood, the Spirit of the Forest lives and grows. She is one of the original creators of life in the Splinterlands, and little happens without her knowing about it. She can be summoned to battle by a skilled summoner, but she loves all her children as a good mother should.

Examining the Card

Here is a brief details regarding her stats.

Rarity ---------------> Legendary
Edition -------------> Alpha, Beta
Abilities -----------> Snipe, Flying
Attack Type -----> Range

Mana cost -----------> 7 (high, make her dependent to the mana cost 👎)
Speed ------------------> 6 (very high, great combo with Flying 👍👍)
Health ------------------> 8 (very high, will make her a reliable backline 👍👍)
Attack ------------------> 2 (acceptable, gonna works well with Rennyn 👍)

Those details come from her stats in level 1. You can see her powers for her level 2, 3, and the final form above. For this time, I will analyze only the initial form. Let's talk about her strong and weak points.

(+)

1. Her high speed trait combined with Snipe ability gives you guarantee to quickly deal with your enemy's middle cards (Creeping Ooze, Merdaali Guardian, Wood Nymph, etc)
2. Supported with flying ability, she will give your enemy huge challenge if you place her on the last position in your squad (against Sneak monsters)
3. This card is not a staple, so the demand is not very high then making the renting cost relatively cheap (3.78 DEC* for 1500 CP)

(-)

1. Her mana cost is very high (7), making her a questionable choice in low mana battle
2. Legendary status & high mana make her to be forbidden in certain rulesets (Little League, Rise of the Commons, Lost Legendaries), so she will be not always available
3. This card is a member of Alpha and Beta Edition, then prepare your money if you want to buy it because the price is impressive (97.998 USD*)

*price recorded at July 6th 2022

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Yesterday, when I was climbing in ranked battle with Earth daily focus, I entered arena with Super Sneak & Spreading Fury ruleset with huge mana cap. This is the perfect pair of rulesets for her! Let me explain it.

Observing the Arena

Mana Cap : 54
Rulesets : Super Sneak & Spreading Fury

Super Sneak: All Melee attack Monsters have the Sneak ability.

• Probably my enemy will use a lot of melee to gain benefit of this ruleset. This is almost confirmed after I checked his/her battle history (last 5 battle with Kelya Frendul, AFAIK Kelya user rely heavily on melee monster). Spirit of the Forest with speed 6 and Flying ability will be devastating to be attacked.

Spreading Fury: All monster get Enrage ability. (Enrage: Increase Melee attack and Speed when damaged. Values are multiplied by 1.5 and rounded up)

• This is huge boost for her! I will use summoner Prince Rennyn to improve her speed from 6 to 7. Then after she is damaged, Enrage ability will make her speed boosted from 7 to 7*1.5 = 10.5, round it up to 11. A monster with speed 11 and flying ability is near impossible to catch. I bet no monster will touch her when she enter this super stealth mode. If you don't believe me, you can see the replay below.

Replay: Super Stealth Mode

Analyzing the Battle

Rennyn vs Kelya. Both of them buffed the speed of the monsters, but I think it's not enough to help them catch the Spirit. In the first round, she got attacked by Serpent of Eld. No worries, this is just as planned. Her health dropped from 9 to 6, but Rage ability making her speed skyrockets to 11 points! 😈😈😈

And then she successfully dodged all 5 attacks in the first round! 😲😲😲 Her health points remain at 6 points at the end of round 1.

In round 2, she get 0 damage from the enemy monsters because all of the attack is missed. At the end of the round, all 3 attack attempts to her are failed to be landed.

At the end of round 3 & 4, she keeps untouchable. With her 11 speed points, she successfully dodged all of the enemy attacks since the first round! (11x attack missed)

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Now I will explain to you with the calculation based on rules from support page here. There were 5 monsters attacking Spirit of the Forest, so I will list down attack accuracy for each monster based on their speed & abilities (Flying & Snare will boost their chance, if they have any).

Enemy's Monster	Speed	Speed Difference	Attack Accuracy(%)	Attack Count
Serpent of Eld	5	11 - 5 = 6	100-60-25 = 15	2
Elven Defender (Enraged)	5	11 - 5 = 6	100-60-25 = 15	4
Flying Squid	4	11 - 4 = 7	100-70-25 = 5	1
Deeplurker	3	11 - 3 = 8	100-80-25 = 0**	3
Disintegrator	2	11 - 2 = 9	100-90-25 = 0**	1

Keep in mind that reduction came from the factors below:

• Speed difference is 10% per speed differential point
• Flying ability is 25%

**Value of Attack accuracy lower than 0% is equal to 0%

Speed difference (SD) : Spirit of the Forest's speed (11) - enemy monster's speed.
Attack Accuracy : 100 - (10*SD) - 25

Based on the table, we know that 2 of my enemy cards have 0% attack accuracy against my Spirit of the Forest (Deeplurker & Disintegrator). Those monsters' attack will be excluded from the following analysis. Meanwhile, 1 monster have 5% chance and 2 monsters have 15% chance. They have tried 7 times to attack the Spirit but got 0 success attack. Is it make senses that my enemy got ZERO success attack or am I just being lucky? Look at the table below to understand the chance in a better way.

Success Attack	Chance
0	32.058%
1	39.601%
2	20.965%
3	6.166%
4	1.088%
5	0.115%
6	0.0067%
7	0.000170859375%
total	100%

The table above shows the chances of every possible scenario of 7 attempts, calculated using binomial formula. For example, the chance of 4 success attacks from my enemy's attack against the Spirit is 1.088% (highly small). The scenario with the highest chance is 1 success attack, followed by 0 success attack, then 2 success attacks. After all, chance of my enemy getting 0 success attack is 32.06%, which is a huge possibility.

Look at the chart below to compare the chances to each other.

Therefore, I am not lucky. I am just successfully manipulate the odd against my enemy😎.

Thank you for staying until the end of my post, I hope I don't make you bored with all the math and chart 🤓.

If you haven't signup for this amazing play-to-earn game then please use my referral in this LINK.

CREDIT
Card images and battle from @Splinterlands
BG picture from reallygreatsite.com
binomial probability calculator from stattrek.com
Thumbnail was made using @Canva

Special thanks to :
Splinterlands Indonesia Telegram group for being an amazing community
Carrieallen for the tutorial formatting
Flauwy for the DEC horizontal divider
Rqr4 for the Chaos horizontal divider