I'm Paying Close Attention To The Price Of Dec, Here's Why
DEC has dropped quite significantly over the past couple days and has always been kind of a ticking time bomb.
A couple posts back I talked about how I was transitioning out of DEC to buy a copy of every single Chaos Legion legendary. I ended up buying those and a few other cards I'm speculating on and luckily I was able to avoid a big chunk of the drop.
I'm always looking for the next play, the next opportunity and I think one could present itself with DEC. This is NOT financial advice and I am not a financial adviser, do your own research and make your own decisions! Invest at your own risk.
In all my time day trading and investing, sometimes the market just panics. It could be Bitcoin, S&P 500 futures, Oil, GME, Gold, or DEC, it doesn't really matter.
One Whale could unload a large chunk of DEC which sparks a chain reaction and as we all check and see the price of DEC falling we go "Oh right, the Airdrop is ending soon, I knew this was going to happen!" and so we can rationalize the sell off. Whenever the market panics, it tends to go overboard, whether it's a parabolic rally or a crash.
The Devs have stated over and over again that they want the price of DEC to be about $1 for 1,000, known as the peg price. It's possible DEC falls to that level sooner rather than later and if it does, I'm heavily considering buying back in.
It was always risky to hold DEC at these prices just for the air drop points and I imagine some very large holders decided it was time to reduce their risk / position size.
The thing is though, there's still 121 days left in the air drop and DEC is still the most cost effective source of airdrop points and now that the price is cheaper that's even more true. Remember, that's the catalyst that sent DEC to $3 - 1000DEC in the first place and it's not like it's gone.
I see two scenarios as the most likely, first, I think it's very possible DEC finds support at the $2 - 1000DEC level which we're currently at and slowly climbs back up towards $3 - 1000DEC. It's very common that the same whales who created the panic selling in the first place will now buy back in at the lower price, absorbing the supply.
Second, like I said earlier, sometimes when markets panic, they sell off further than expected and we have reason to believe we could hit the $1 - 1000DEC level before stabilizing and bouncing.
I'll be paying attention to what DEC does over the next week or so and may take a short term trade on it if I like what I see. As long as theirs 100 or so days left in the airdrop I think there's room for one last pump before the final crash happens, especially if we fall to the $1 - 1,000DEC price quickly.
Don't be surprised if DEC rises again before the airdrop ends! Good luck out there!
Start Date January 7th 2022 Initial Investment $3,500 Estimated Account Value $2,992 Card Power 83,715 Target Account Value $10,000 Target Card Power 250,000 End Date : Unknown
Cya next time!
I have been keeping my eye on the price too! imo $2/1000DEC is a pretty fair price for the SPS airdrops + future lower valued DEC. If prices shift too far in one direction or the other than I may be taking some actions myself 😛
Glad to hear it and you're exactly right.
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Prefer scenario #1 please. Regardless i'm along for the ride. I've switched from using DEC to buy card (rentals) and began increasing my SPS bag. I feel like I'm missing out by not using Liquidity pools, but so much is up in the air atm. Good read. Sharing on Splinterlands Digest Twitter.
I think a lot of people would get hurt / lose value if scenario #2 played out so the human side of me prefers Scenario #1 as well but the opportunistic capitalist pig in me is hoping for sustained selling pressure down to the $1/1000DEC peg lol.
At that level I think you can buy DEC and even if it goes to $.75/1000DEC you'd make so much SPS back in the process with the liquidity pool that it wouldn't matter.
I know @bravetofu did an article on this as well and his conclusion was to buy SPS if you want / need SPS and I mostly agree with that if you have to buy RIGHT NOW.
My article is more talking about a short term trade IF DEC over extends itself by selling off too quickly with over 100 days left in the airdrop.
I wonder what his sensitivity data / table would say if you were able to buy DEC for $1/1000 with 100 days left in the airdrop and where you would end up compared to a final price of $0.75/1000, $0.50/1000 and so on.
If DEC keeps falling, at some point it has to be close to just printing money where even if DEC went to $0.00/1000 in the end, the SPS gained would still out value a 100% loss, to bad I'm not that great at math or I'd figure out when that point is!
Sorry, your reply got my brain rolling on this idea again lol
I love the fact there are several options (tokenomics) we can discuss and they all have merit/opportunity. A testament to the developers and vision of the founders.
Absolutely agree with you. The "economic game" is just as fascinating as the card game. And it's all going to get exponentially more interesting with validator nodes and later with land.