RE: SPS Technical Analysis - October 24, 2021

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Yay! Finally a decent TA post about SPS. I'll be glad to regularly read your SPS updates :) thanks for sharing!

"A pattern that's in play is valid until invalidated away"

I've always thought that there is only one variation of this saying haha. For us, what we always say is: "A trend is your friend until it bends."

If you don't mind, I'd like to ask for your opinion about this:

Here is what I am currently seeing:

  • Ongoing bigger picture Wave 3, most likely undergoing completion of ii of 3. Looks like a 1-2-i-ii setup as well.
  • Recovery from both the gray rectangle and red parallel channel increases the probability of it becoming an ongoing Wave 3 (this means a double undercut setup as well).
  • Assuming that this is correct, ~2.25 will be the minimum target.

Would love to hear your thoughts about this. I'd hate to be blindsided because of my "bias". Thanks!

hive-13323
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Thanks for the comment! Hmmm... I typically don't count the launch as wave 1 because it's just too chaotic and run by bots, also the correction has lasted for too long and given SPS' infancy, we can treat the bearish phase as the cycle reset.

BUT, if we do include your wave 1 as the start

  1. As you said, we are still in the middle of a much much bigger wave 3, which is most likely the 1.618 of the wave 1 high (or higher hopefully).
  2. The first 5 wave impulse for that giant wave 3 is part of a number of 5 waves we'll experience. The one thing I don't know is how many will we need to get to that 1.618
  3. For us to be both wrong, we need to go below .31 cents to invalidate our patterns. Low probability so we're still good for continuation.
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