How Much Are Our Soulbound Reward Cards Worth?

This morning I calculated the value of my Splinterlands soulbound reward cards at $453. This estimate was higher than the previous one because I did a more detailed calculation.

Soulbound reward cards are still not tradable on the Splinterlands market. We expect these cards to become available for sale in the second half of the year. As the number of soulbound cards in our portfolio increases, so does our curiosity about how much they can be worth.

Assumptions

Estimating the value of soulbound reward cards requires some assumptions. These assumptions are listed below.

• The value of Soulbound reward cards will be similar to that of previous Chaos Legion reward cards. The reason for this assumption is that the number of cards in both card groups is at a similar level.
• We can calculate the value of soulbound reward card summoners by comparing them to other Choas legion summoner values. In this calculation, we must consider that the number of soulbound reward card summoners will be higher.
• Distribution of Soulbound reward cards will take eight months. If this period is extended, the value of the cards may decrease. If this time is shorter, the value of the cards may increase.
• Once the Soulbound reward cards become tradable, the market conditions will be the same as today. If conditions change, the estimated value of the portfolio may increase or decrease.
• Splinterlands player count will be at the same level when Soulbound reward cards become tradable. I expect the number of players to increase over time, in which case the soulbound cards may also increase in value.

The primary data we will use to estimate the value of soulbound reward cards is the strength of each card. The number representing power also determines the minimum value of the card in DEC. We can burn the cards into DEC, the stablecoin of Splinterlands. On the other hand, the current value of the cards is several times the conversion value to DEC. For example, the level 1 power of Chaos Agent, a common card, is five. The selling price in the market is $0.14. The current value of 5 DECs, which we can obtain by burning the Chaos Agent, is $0.02. So Chaos Agent trades with a seven multiplier. We can get an average conversion factor per power based on card categories. We can calculate an estimated portfolio value by applying these conversion coefficients to our soulbound reward cards.

Card Categories

I calculated the power to actual dollar value ratios of the Chaos Legion reward cards and summoners to use in estimating the value of the Soulbound reward cards. My examination showed me that treating the cards in 6 groups would be appropriate. The cards' power to actual dollar value ratios in these groups are comparable.

The categories that will form the basis of the calculation are listed below.

1. Regular Common/Rare/Epic Monsters
2. Regular Summoners
3. Regular Legendary Monsters
4. Gold Common/Rare/Epic Monsters
5. Gold Summoners
6. Gold Legendary Monsters

We know Neutral and Dragon cards' value is higher than the cards in other elements. However, I did not make a distinction based on elements because, in this case, the sample of each category would need to be bigger.

Calculation

I looked at the prices of Chaos Legion reward cards to calculate the power-to-dollar conversion coefficient of regular common/rare/epic monsters. I found that one power corresponds to 0.22 cents on average.

We cannot use previous reward cards to estimate the value of Regular and Gold summoners, as previously summoners were not distributed as reward cards. Soulbound reward summoners can be calculated by analogy with Chaos Legion summoners. The circulating number of Rare Chaos Legion summoners is around 75,000. The number of soulbound reward summoners will be about 1 million once the distribution is complete. Therefore, this should be taken into account in the calculation.

Below are the values I obtained for all categories.

Category	Value Per Power
Regular Common/Rare/Epic Monsters	0.22 cent
Regular Summoners	0.33 cent
Regular Legendary Monsters	0.30 cent
Gold Common/Rare/Epic Monsters	0.51 cent
Gold Summoners	0.66 cent
Gold Legendary Monsters	0.30 cent

I calculated the estimated value of my Soulbound reward cards to be $453, as per the table above. I'll give an example to illustrate how I'm doing the calculation just fine. The following image appeared when I clicked on the card named Thane Newsong.

I multiplied the Power value of 1000 by the 0.22 cent value in the table's Regular Common/Rare/Epic Monsters row. The result is 220 cents. So the estimated value of this card is $2.20. When we do this for all our soulbound cards, we find the total value of our portfolio.

Conclusion

The existence of soulbound reward cards motivates me. This motivation stems from the monetary value of the cards as well as their use value. Even though I don't have their max version yet, they contribute a lot in battles. On the other hand, it's also good to be able to sell or rent them one day.

In this article, I shared a calculation arising from my curiosity. The system I created is based on a large number of assumptions. There may also be other dynamics that may affect prices. Therefore, I suggest you approach this calculation with caution.

Thank you for reading.

Cover Image Source: Nidjourney App

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